The Arizona Diamondbacks (85-74) and San Diego Padres (89-70) meet Friday to begin a 3-game NL West series. First pitch from Petco Park in San Diego, California, is set for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let's analyze MLB odds around the Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 5-5
The Diamondbacks, in much-needed fashion, throttled the Colorado Rockies 12-8 Thursday, closing as a -199 moneyline favorite with the Over (10) hitting with ease. Arizona has ripped off 5 straight wins after losing 5 straight. The Diamondbacks sit 2 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies for the final NL Wild Card spot.
San Diego is 15-2 in its last 17 games and is one game ahead of the Chicago Cubs for the top
NL Wild Card spot. The Padres took 2 of 3 games on the road against the Los Angeles Dodgers in their previous series, winning 4-2 to close it out Thursday. They closed as an underdog in all 3 games, with the Under cashing in each as well.
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Diamondbacks at Padres projected starters
RHP Brandon Pfaadt vs. RHP Casey Mize
Pfaadt (7-3, 3.72 ERA) makes his 19th start (29th appearance). He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 128 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K in a 5-3 home win vs. New York Yankees Saturday
- Career vs. Padres: 5-3, 3.82 ERA (66 IP, 28 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 in 12 appearances (11 starts)
- 2026 road splits: 4-1, 3.34 ERA (56 2/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 7 HR, 12 BB, 49 K in 13 appearances (8 starts)
Mize (6-9, 3.96 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 127 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 5 BB, 2 K in a 7-6 home victory vs. Miami Marlins Saturday
- Career vs. Diamondbacks: 0-1, 8.18 ERA (11 IP, 10 ER), 2.18 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 in 3 starts
- 2026 home splits: 2-3, 3.71 ERA (63 IP, 26 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 7 HR, 17 BB, 55 K in 12 starts
Diamondbacks at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 9:12 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Padres -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-190) | Padres -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Diamondbacks at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 5, Padres 4
Moneyline
BET DIAMONDBACKS (+115).
Mize is coming off one of his worst starts of the season and has struggled mightily over the past 6 weeks. In his last 6 starts, he's allowed at least 2 ERs in each game and has allowed 4 ERs or more 3 times. The Padres have been rolling, but their offense stalled against Los Angeles, scoring a total of 9 runs in that series.
For Arizona, while the odds are slim, it still has hope. The Diamondbacks have won 2 of Pfaadt's last 3 starts, with those victories coming over the Houston Astros and Yankees, 2 playoff-hopeful teams. They have scored at least 5 runs in 5 straight games.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Avoid this play. The Diamondbacks (-190) are too expensive to consider as the run-line underdog, while the Padres (+155) are too risky to take with Mize on the mound.
Over/Under
BET OVER 7.5 (-110).
Neither pitcher is an ace, and both teams have shown they know how to score as of late. Combine those two, and the Over is the better route.
The Padres, who are 11-3-1 O/U in their last 15 games, have scored at least 5 runs in 12 of those contests. They've gone Over in Mize's last 6 starts. The Diamondbacks are 4-2 O/U in their last 6 games and have tallied at least 7 runs in 3 of their last 4 outings.
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions
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