In a 3-round women's strawweight bout on the main card, Yan Xiaonan and Denise Gomes meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 286 at Shanghai Oriental Sports Center in Shanghai, China. The prelims begin at 3 a.m. ET, and the main card is scheduled for a 6 a.m. ET start (all on Paramount+). Let's analyze UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 286: Yan vs. Gomes odds, and make our expert UFC picks and predictions
.Records: Yan (19-5-0) | Gomes (12-3-0)
Yan is looking to rebound after suffering a unanimous-decision loss to Virna Jandiroba at UFC 314 in April 2025. She is 1-2 in her past 3 fights, including a title fight loss to fellow Chinese fighter Zhang Weili at UFC 300. She has gone the distance in 5 of her past 6 fights, and in 11 of her 13 fights since
arriving at the UFC level.
Gomes is on a roll, winning 4 straight fights since a unanimous-decision loss to Angela Hill on Nov. 4, 2023. She has gone the distance in 4 of her past 5 fights, too, and 5 times in 8 bouts since arriving at the UFC level.
Both fighters have a 63-inch reach, while Yan holds a slight edge in significant strikes landed per minute (4.69 to 4.43). Gomes owns a 58.56% significant-striking accuracy rate, while Yan checks in at 51.24%. Gomes averages 1.45 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Yan averages 0.84. Yan boasts an impressive 73.33% takedown accuracy rate, compared to Gomes' 34.48%. Gomes averages 0.72 submissions per 15 minutes, while Yan averages 0.00.
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UFC Fight Night 286: Yan vs. Gomes odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 4:05 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Yan -154 (bet $154 to win $100) | Gomes +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -310 | Under +220)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -250 | No +190)
UFC Fight Night 286: Yan vs. Gomes picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Yan is fighting in her native China, so the crowd advantage shouldn't be discounted. However, that makes the young GOMES (+130) an even better option.
The Brazilian fighter has won 4 in a row, including impressive unanimous-decision wins over Tecia Pennington and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. She is not only on a roll, but rising toward a potential title fight down the road if she keeps winning. This is an important fight for Gomes, who is 26 -- 11 years younger than Yan.
Over/Under
Over 2.5 Rounds (-310) and Yes: Fight to go the distance (-250) are both priced way too high. There is a high chance this goes the distance, though, and if you were to fold either play into a multi-leg parlay, that would be OK.
If you like the fight to go the distance, and trust the underdog to win, GOMES BY POINTS (+290) is hard to ignore, for the chance to nearly triple up.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: UFC Fight Night 286 Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes odds, picks and predictions
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