The Boston Red Sox (75-65) and Baltimore Orioles (69-71) play the first game Thursday of a 4-game AL East series in Baltimore, Maryland. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is at 7:15 p.m. ET. Let's analyze MLB odds around the Red Sox vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Red Sox lead 5-4
The Red Sox dropped Wednesday’s rubber match 8-3 to the Seattle Mariners, falling as -149 home favorites while the Over (8.5) cashed. SP Patrick Sandoval (4 IP, 4 R, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 2 K) struggled and dropped to 1-4. DH Roman Anthony provided Boston’s biggest offensive highlight, going 3 for 5 with a home run.
The Orioles ended their 9-game road trip on a sour note Wednesday, falling 6-5 to the Colorado
Rockies in 11 innings. Baltimore lost as a -176 road favorite as the Under (11.5) cashed. SP Trevor Rogers (6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB) struck out 11 in a no-decision, while LF Luis Robert Jr. delivered an RBI double in his Orioles debut. 2B Blaze Alexander had a strong afternoon, going 3 for 5 with an RBI.
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Red Sox at Orioles projected starters
LHP Jake Bennett vs. RHP Brandon Young
Bennett (9-6, 3.27 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 93 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 6-0 victory at New York Yankees Saturday
- Only start vs. Orioles: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 6-3 home victory July 22
- 2026 road splits: 4-3, 3.02 ERA (47 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 3 HR, 8.3 K/9 in 8 starts
Young (9-3, 3.38 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 130 1/3 innings.
- Last appearance: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 4 K in 4-3 loss at Athletics Friday
- Only start vs. Red Sox: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 5 K in 10-3 home victory April 24
- 2026 home splits: 2-2, 3.38 ERA (69 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 11 HR, 7.7 K/9 in 12 starts
Red Sox at Orioles odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Red Sox -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Orioles +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox -1.5 (+125) | Orioles +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Red Sox at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 4, Red Sox 3
Moneyline
BET ORIOLES (+110).
Baltimore finally gets to unpack the suitcases Thursday after a 9-game road trip, and those plus odds at home have my attention.
Young gets the ball after an impressive 7-inning performance in Sacramento, a hitter-friendly environment where he showed he can handle a tough assignment. Now he gets the comfort of pitching at home against a Boston team coming off a disappointing series loss to Seattle.
Bennett won’t make this easy. The Red Sox lefty is coming off 6 scoreless innings against the New York Yankees, but Baltimore doesn’t need to dominate him — just hang around long enough to let the home-field edge and bullpen take over.
This feels like a good spot to grab value instead of laying juice with Boston. Young is throwing well, the Orioles are back home, and the price is right.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
No need to play around with the run line when you are getting the Orioles at plus odds on the moneyline.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-120).
Baltimore has stayed Under in 5 of its last 6, while 3 of the last 4 Red Sox-Orioles meetings have followed suit. Bennett just blanked the Yankees over 6 innings, and 4 of Young’s last 5 starts have stayed Under. With both starters dealing and Baltimore’s bats cooling off, I’m riding the Under.
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions
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