In a 5-round lightweight bout in the main event, Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 292 at Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. Prelims begin at 5 p.m. ET, and the main card is at 8 p.m. ET (each on Paramount+). Let's analyze UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 292: Moicano vs. Nolan odds and make our expert UFC picks and predictions.
Records: Moicano (21-7-1) | Nolan (11-1-0)
Moicano picked up a Round 2 submission victory over Chris Duncan last time out, his first win after back-to-back setbacks. That includes a title shot loss at UFC 311 against Islam Makhachev via Round 1 submission. He has ended up going the distance just once in the past 5 bouts.
For Nolan, he has won 5 consecutive fights since making his UFC debut in a fight night
Jan. 13, 2024, falling via KO/TKO in Round 1. Since, 3 of the past 4 fights have come via unanimous decision, too, including a victory over Fares Ziam. This represents a gigantic step up in competition for Nolan, however.
The 37-year-old Moicano has managed 4.10 significant strikes landed per minute, while landing 56.53% of those strikes. He also has a 1.68 takedown advantage, while posting a 40.38% takedown accuracy percentage, while checking in at 0.56 in submission average.
For Nolan, he has a 1-inch reach advantage over the Brazilian veteran. The southpaw has a 4.84 significant strikes landed per minute since arriving at the UFC level, while posting a 51.76% significant strikes accuracy percentage. He has a 1.08 takedown average, but he is just 26.67% in takedown accuracy percentage, with a 1.35 submission average.
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UFC Fight Night 292: Moicano vs. Nolan odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Moicano -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Nolan +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Total Rounds: 2.5 Rounds (Over +105 | Under -140)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +275 | No -425)
UFC Fight Night 292: Moicano vs. Nolan picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
The veteran MOICANO (-120) is the more battle-tested fighter, and he should be able to get the job done against Nolan, who has a ton of potential, but really, he has fought a bunch of tomato cans to date. Moicano is just 2 fights removed from a title shot at the top of the division, and he has fought some of the best in the weight class. At this price, taking Moicano represents quite the value.
Over/Under
UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-140) at plus-money is a strong play. Moicano went the distance at UFC 317 against Beneil Dariush, but he hasn't gone past the halfway mark of Round 3 in 4 of his past outings.
For Nolan, he has gone the distance in 3 of the pat 4 outings, but, again, the bump in competition is huge here. He is going to find himself to be over his head quite early into bout.
The Brazilian fighter can get the win in a number of ways, and taking MOICANO BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+125) on the 5-way method of victory line at plus-money is a solid value, too.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: UFC Fight Night 292 Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan odds, picks and predictions
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