The Chicago Cubs (89-73) and the San Diego Padres (91-71) meet Monday for Game 1 of the NL Wild Card series at Petco Park in San Diego, California. First pitch is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET (Peacock / NBC Sports Network). Let's analyze MLB odds around the Cubs vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cubs won 5-1; went 2-1 in San Diego (April 27-29)
The Cubs have won 5 consecutive meetings, including a 23-3 win at Wrigley Field July 1 in the most recent meeting. The Over cashed in 5 of 6 meetings in the regular season.
These teams have met twice before in the playoffs, including the 1984 National League Championship Series. The Padres won that best-of-5 series 3-2. In the 2025 NL Wild Card series,
the Cubs edged the Padres 2-1.
The Cubs will start LHP Matthew Boyd, and the Padres went 22-21 against left-handed starting pitchers this season.
Chicago stumbled down the stretch, winning just twice in the final 6 games. It was playing for Wild Card seeding, but it had no shot at the NL Central title behind the No. 1 seed Milwaukee Brewers.
San Diego was red-hot down the stretch, going 17-3 in the final 20 regular-season games, while the Over has cashed in each of the previous 3 outings.
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Cubs at Padres projected starters
LHP Matthew Boyd vs. RHP Michael King
Boyd (10-5, 3.91 ERA) made 22 starts in the regular season. He had a 1.21 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9, 6.8 K/9 in 126 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 HR, 2 BB, 3 K in 2-1 win vs. Miami Marlins Sept. 24
- 2026 road splits (11 starts): 4-2, 2.86 ERA (66 IP, 21 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 4 HR, 25 BB, 49 K
- Career postseason stats (6 starts, 7 appearances): 0-1, 1.66 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 1.55 WHIP, 5 BB, 9 K
- Career vs. Padres (4 starts - regular season): 2-1, 4.43 ERA (20 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.57 WHIP, 6.2 K/9
King (12-10, 3.21 ERA) made 32 starts this season. He had a 1.18 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9, 7.7 K/9 in 185 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 0 HR, 2 BB, 5 K in 7-0 road loss vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Sept. 22
- 2026 home splits (15 starts): 6-4, 2.74 ERA (88 2/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 9 HR, 33 BB, 78 K
- Career postseason stats (2 starts, 4 appearances): 2-0, 3.00 ERA (15 IP, 5 ER), 0.80 WHIP, 1 BB, 19 K
- Career vs. Cubs (2 relief appearances - regular season): 0-0, 0.00 ERA (2 2/3 IP, 0 ER), 0.38 WHIP, 3.4 K/9
Cubs at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:19 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cubs +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Padres -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-210) | Padres -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -125 | U: +105)
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Cubs at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 3, Cubs 2
Moneyline
The PADRES (-125) were red-hot down the stretch, and now that the playoffs have started, we shouldn't see a big change. The only concern is the postseason experience of Boyd, who has started 6 postseason games, while King will make his just his third playoff game start.
Run line/Against the spread
The Cubs +1.5 (-210) will cost you more than 2 times your potential return, and that's way too expensive for a little bit of insurance. If you like Chicago, just pick it straight up.
AVOID.
Over/Under
UNDER 7 (+105) is a strong play at Petco Park despite the fact the Over cashed in 5 of 6 regular-season meetings. Playoff baseball is different, and if a starter is struggling, especially in a short series, pitchers are going to have a short leash. Look for runs to be at a premium.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions
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