The Miami Marlins (76-79) and San Diego Padres (86-69) play the final game Sunday of a 3-game series in San Diego, California. First pitch from Petco Park is at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze MLB odds around the Marlins vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres leads 5-0
The Padres won their fourth straight in dramatic fashion Saturday, beating the Marlins 7-6 in 10 innings. San Diego cashed as a -158 home favorite as the Over (7.5) hit. PH Ethan Salas, playing in his 11th career game, delivered the walk-off single, scoring SS Jake Cronenworth from third with one out in the 10th. 2B RF Fernando Tatis Jr. and LF Samad Taylor also went deep as the Padres kept their hot streak rolling. They
are tied with the Chicago Cubs for the first NL Wild Card spot.
The Marlins couldn’t finish the job Saturday despite getting some late-inning heroics. SS Otto Lopez provided an early 2-run homer before PH Griffin Conine tied the game with a solo shot in the ninth to force extras. Rookie RP Josh Ekness surrendered the winning run in the 10th and took the loss.
Watch MLB on Fubo!
Marlins at Padres projected starters
RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. RHP Walker Buehler
Alcantara (6-10, 13-10 ERA) makes his 33rd start and 34th appearance. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 206 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 8-7 loss at Arizona Diamondbacks Monday
- Career vs. Padres: 3-2, 3.38 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 1 HR, 6.1 K/9 in 7 starts
- 2026 road splits: 7-6, 4.41 ERA (114 1/3 IP, 56 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 16 HR, 6.3 K/9 in 19 games (18 starts)
Buehler (8-6, 4.58 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 143 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 9-3 loss at Colorado Rockies Tuesday
- Career vs. Marlins: 2-1, 3.79 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 3 HR, 10.7 K/9 in 8 starts
- 2026 home splits: 4-3, 5.13 ERA (66 2/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.49 WHIP, 10 HR, 8.4 K/9 in 14 starts
Marlins at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:51 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Padres -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-180) | Padres -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Slide into: BaseballHQ.com for your fantasy baseball news. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers full-season subscriptions. Sign up today!
Marlins at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 6, Marlins 3
Moneyline
PASS.
I like the Padres (-145) but not interested at these odds.
Run line/Against the spread
BET PADRES -1.5 (+145).
San Diego picked up its fourth straight win Saturday and is in position to sweep Miami Sunday. The Padres have been dominant at Petco Park, going 48-29 at home with a 23-5 run there since mid-July.
Alcantara gives Miami a chance, but the Marlins are already eliminated from postseason contention. San Diego still has plenty to play.
Buehler counters for the Padres after posting a 3.31 ERA since the All-Star break, and San Diego also owns the stronger bullpen and defense. With the Padres red-hot, playing great baseball at home and looking to finish off the sweep, I’m laying the extra run and backing San Diego Sunday.
Over/Under
Runs have been the theme for both teams lately as 3 of the last 4 meetings have gone Over, along with 7 of Miami’s last 10. San Diego has been even more consistent, going 9-0-1 to the Over in its last 10. Even with solid starters on the mound, I’m BETTING THE OVER 8 (-110) Sunday.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions
Advertiser disclosure: USA TODAY may earn a commission when you sign up through links on this page. Commissions never influence our editorial coverage or rankings. Offers and odds were accurate at publication and are subject to change; terms apply — see the operator’s site. This is general information, not betting, legal or financial advice. To the fullest extent permitted by law, USA TODAY is not liable for losses arising from your use of it.
Must be 21+ (18+ where permitted). Sports betting and casino gaming are not legal everywhere; complying with the laws where you are located is your responsibility. Gamble only with funds you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Help is available 24/7 — call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-MY-RESET. State helplines and responsible gaming resources.
