The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets meet Wednesday to open their 2026-27 NBA seasons. Tip from Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Let's analyze NBA odds around the Mavericks vs. Rockets odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
2025-26 season series: Tied 2-2 as both defended their home court
The Mavericks endured a disappointing 2025-26 season, finishing 26-56 and 12th in the Western Conference, missing the playoffs for the second straight year. Rookie sensation F Cooper Flagg was the bright spot, averaging 21 points per game (PPG), 6.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists while earning Rookie of the Year honors. F Naji Marshall (15.2 PPG) and F P.J. Washington (14.2 PPG) also contributed. Dallas reshaped
its roster during the offseason, adding F Santi Aldama, F Zaccharie Risacher, G Marcus Sasser and rookie F Morez Johnson Jr. Key departures included G Klay Thompson, F Khris Middleton and F Marvin Bagley III. New coach Dusty May takes over with G Kyrie Irving returning from injury.
The Rockets finished the 2025-26 season 52-30, securing the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference before falling to the Los Angeles Lakers in 6 games in the first round of the playoffs. F Kevin Durant led Houston with 25.7 PPG, while C Alperen Sengun averaged 22 points, 9.6 rebounds and 6.7 assists. G Amen Thompson also impressed, averaging 17.6 points and 7.5 rebounds. During the offseason, Houston added veteran guards Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanovic while losing F Dorian Finney-Smith and G Josh Okogie. The Rockets also extended Thompson and F Tari Eason, keeping their young core intact.
Watch the NBA on Fubo!
Mavericks at Rockets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:37 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mavericks +290 (bet $100 to win $290) | Rockets -375 (bet $375 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +8.5 (-105) | Rockets -8.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 230.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Mavericks at Rockets key injuries
Mavericks
- F Santi Aldama (knee) out
- F Tarik Biberovic (heel) out
- G Jett Howard (calf) questionable
- C Dereck Lively II (foot) out
- F Caleb Martin (thumb) out
Rockets
- C Steven Adams (calf) questionable
- F Julian Phillips (illness) questionable
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Mavericks at Rockets picks and predictions
Prediction
Rockets 119, Mavericks 107
Moneyline
PASS.
I like the Rockets (-375) to win at home Wednesday, but not at those odds. I'll take the wager to the spread.
Against the spread
BET ROCKETS -8.5 (-115).
Houston has a significant advantage in depth, experience and home-court strength heading into Wednesday's season opener against Dallas. The Rockets finished an impressive 30-11 record at home last season, while the Mavericks struggled 10-30 on the road.
Durant, Sengun and Thompson lead a talented Houston lineup that should create plenty of problems for Dallas. The Mavericks will be without Lively and Aldama, leaving them shorthanded inside and vulnerable on the glass.
Dallas also enters the season with a new coach and a roster still developing chemistry around Flagg and Irving. Houston's defensive physicality and established system should help the Rockets dictate the pace.
With a deeper rotation, stronger frontcourt and plenty of offensive firepower, Houston has the tools to build a comfortable lead and maintain it throughout the night.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 230.5 (-110).
Houston's slow pace and physical defense should keep scoring in check Wednesday against Dallas. The Rockets ranked 29th in pace and fifth in defensive efficiency last season, allowing just 110 points per game. Three of their 4 meetings with Dallas finished below 230.5 points, including both games in Houston. With the Mavericks shorthanded inside, expect the Rockets to control the tempo and limit easy scoring opportunities.
Best prop bet
Bet Mavericks G KYRIE IRVING OVER 2.5 MADE THREE POINTERS (-111).
Irving has a strong history against Houston, averaging 3.4 made 3-pointers on 7.7 attempts over his last 10 meetings with the Rockets. He also looked sharp in the preseason, knocking down 5 of 7 shots from beyond the arc in his final tuneup. With Dallas entering Wednesday as an 8.5-point underdog, Irving should have plenty of opportunities to let it fly as the Mavericks try to keep pace.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
Access more NBA coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | Lakers Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire
This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets odds, picks and predictions
Advertiser disclosure: USA TODAY may earn a commission when you sign up through links on this page. Commissions never influence our editorial coverage or rankings. Offers and odds were accurate at publication and are subject to change; terms apply — see the operator’s site. This is general information, not betting, legal or financial advice. To the fullest extent permitted by law, USA TODAY is not liable for losses arising from your use of it.
Must be 21+ (18+ where permitted). Sports betting and casino gaming are not legal everywhere; complying with the laws where you are located is your responsibility. Gamble only with funds you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Help is available 24/7 — call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-MY-RESET. State helplines and responsible gaming resources.
