The Florida State Seminoles (3-2, 1-1 ACC) and Louisville Cardinals (2-3, 1-2) square off in an ACC matchup Friday night at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let's analyze college football odds around the Florida State at Louisville odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
Florida State QB Ashton Daniels ran for 136 yards on 17 carries and set a school record for a QB with 5 rushing TDs as FSU (-1.5) dominated the visiting Virginia Cavaliers 38-7 (Under 51.5) Saturday. Daniels was less impressive through the air, completing 12 of 19 passes for 183 yards with 1 INT. FSU RB Ousmane Kromah contributed 80 yards on 17 carries. The Seminoles held
the Cavaliers to 205 total yards (168 passing, 37 rushing) and recorded 10 sacks, the most by the school since they had 11 in a 1997 victory over the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
Louisville gave up 493 total yards and allowed the NC State Wolfpack (+5.5) to convert 9 of 17 third downs in a 31-28 (Over 56) loss last Saturday. NC State QB CJ Bailey threw for a career-high 373 yards with 2 TDs. The Cardinals, led by RB Isaac Brown (9 carries, 125 yards, 1 TD) and RB Keyjuan Brown (8 carries, 88 yards, 1 TD), dominated the ground game, rushing for 231 yards on 25 attempts. Louisville QB Lincoln Kienholz was 21 of 30 for 254 yards and 2 TDs, while WR Tre Richardson had 8 catches for 117 yards and 1 TD.
FSU leads the all-time series 18-6. The Seminoles have won the last 2 meetings, most recently the 2023 ACC Championship game 16-6. Since Louisville joined the league in 2014, neither team has won 3 straight games against the other.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Florida State at Louisville odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 4:12 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Florida State +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Louisville -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Florida State +3.5 (-110) | Louisville -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 59.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Florida State at Louisville picks and predictions
Prediction
Louisville 34, Florida State 31
Moneyline
PASS.
Both teams have hosted SMU this season. Florida State lost 27-24, while Louisville prevailed 41-31.
Louisville has allowed at least 30 points in 4 of 5 games this season, while FSU has scored at least 34 points in 4 of 5 games, the only game they did not was the aforementioned loss to SMU. The Cardinals offense has been just as prolific, scoring at least 27 points in every game this season. All 3 of their losses have come by 3 points.
What does this all mean? It means I expect a close game and I'll take the points.
Against the spread
BET FLORIDA STATE +3.5 (-110).
FSU played its best game of the year last week. If they can build off that defensive performance, they might just be able to win this game outright. The Seminoles are 3-2 in Louisville since the Cardinals joined the ACC.
Over/Under
BET OVER 59.5 (-112).
After giving up 50 points to Alabama, FSU has held it last 2 opponents to 7 points each, but I think Louisville, which has the second best offense in the ACC at 486 yards per game (YPG) and is averaging 38.6 points per game (PPG), will be able to move the ball and put up some points. Louisville's defense, on the other hand, ranks 16th in the ACC, giving up 423 YPG and 29.2 PPG; only Stanford is worse.
Best prop bet
Florida State RB OUSMANE KROMAH 100+ RUSHING YARDS (+145)
Kromah has rushed for at least 80 yards in every game this season and is averaging 5.9 yards per carry. Against this leaky Cardinals defense, which is giving up an average of 156.2 rushing YPG, Kromah should find plenty of running room.
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals odds, picks and predictions
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