The Atlanta Falcons (3-4) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5) square off at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, in Week 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (FOX). Let's analyze NFL odds around the Falcons at Buccaneers odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.
The host Falcons (+2.5) forced 4 turnovers -- while committing none of their own -- to snap a two-game skid with a 29-20 (Under 49.5) victory over the previously unbeaten San Francisco 49ers last Sunday. Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. was 25 of 34 for 213 yards with TD passes to WR Drake London, TE Nick Muse and TE Kyle Pitts Sr. Falcons RB Bijan Robinson was bottled up on the ground, rushing for 63 yards on 20 carries, but added 59 yards on 5 catches.
QB Baker
Mayfield returned from a dislocated thumb, but he probably could have sat out another week as the Bucs (+2.5) ran for 258 yards in a dominating 43-13 (Over 44.5) victory over the host Carolina Panthers last Sunday. Bucs RB Bucky Irving rushed for 106 yards and 2 TDs on 24 carries, while RB Kenny Gainwell pitched in with 88 yards on 14 carries. With the ground game in control, Mayfield threw 11 passes for 64 yards with 1 TD. Tampa Bay limited Carolina to 266 total yards, sacked Panthers QB Bryce Young 5 times and forced 4 turnovers.
The Falcons lead the all-time series vs. the Buccaneers 33-32. The teams split the series last season, the Bucs winning 23-20 in Atlanta on Sept. 7, 2025, while the Falcons avenged that loss with a 29-28 victory in Tampa on Dec. 11, 2025.
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Falcons at Buccaneers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 10:05 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Falcons +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Buccaneers -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Falcons +2 (-108) | Buccaneers -2 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -108 | U: -110)
Falcons at Buccaneers key injuries
FALCONS
- WR Beaux Collins (hip) questionable
- DB Billy Bowman Jr. (hamstring) questionable
- LB Divine Deablo (forearm) questionable
- DE Samson Ebukam (hamstring) questionable
- RB Brian Robinson (hamstring) out
- DE Charles Snowden (back) questionable
- CB Avieon Terrell (illness) questionable
- OT Cameron Williams (ankle) questionable
- WR Olamide Zaccheaus (shoulder) questionable
BUCCANEERS
- WR Emeka Egbuka (foot) out
- RB Kenny Gainwell (hip) questionable
- T Luke Goedeke (calf) questionable
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Falcons at Buccaneers picks and predictions
Prediction
Falcons 27, Buccaneers 24
Moneyline
BET FALCONS (+115).
The Buccaneers have two of the more stunning victories this season. After an 0-4 start, they went into Dallas on a short week with a backup QB to earn their first victory and then last week they demolished the upstart Panthers in Carolina. Meanwhile, they're 0-4 at home. In both victories, the run game was the catalyst with the team rushing for 240+ yards in each.
The Falcons rank fourth in the NFL in rush defense, giving up an average of 88.9 yards per game, so it's unlikely the Bucs will find the running room like they did against the Panthers and Cowboys, who have two of the worst run defenses in the league.
Penix has stabilized the Falcons offense since returning to the lineup in Week 3. They had scored a total of 16 points in 2 losses to open the season but are averaging 31 points per game since.
Against the spread
PASS.
These two teams do tend to play close games with the last 6 meetings decided by 6 points or less. But typically 2.5 points isn't worth taking as such a small percentage of NFL games (under 10%) are decided by 2 points or less.
Over/Under
BET OVER 43.5 (-108).
The total has fluctuated wildly this week. It's been as low as 43.5, went as high as 46.5 and has settled in at 44 for the time being. My score prediction has it as a healthy Over. Four of the past 5 games between the teams has gone Over this total; the one that didn't came in at 43.
Best prop bet
BET FALCONS RB BIJAN ROBINSON UNDER 80.5 YARDS RUSHING YARDS (-115).
Robinson has been held under 80 yards in each of his past two games (61 vs. Bears, 63 vs. 49ers); though to be fair, his total against the Bears was due largely to a limited amount of carries. In any case, the Bucs have done a good job bottling up the All-Pro running back. In 6 games against Tampa Bay, Robinson has surpassed 80 yards just once, though it did come in the last meeting between the teams (93 yards on Dec. 11, 2025).
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers odds, picks and predictions
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