In a 3-round flyweight bout on the main card, Brandon Moreno and Joseph Morales meet Saturday at Noche UFC at Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona. The prelims begin at 2 p.m. ET, and the main card is scheduled for a 5 p.m. ET start (all on Paramount+). Let's analyze UFC odds around the Noche UFC: Moreno vs. Morales odds and make our expert UFC picks and predictions.
Records: Moreno (23-10-2) | Morales (15-2-0)
Moreno has been in a bit of freefall since losing his championship belt to Alexandre Pantoja via split decision at UFC 290 in July 2023. Including that loss, he is 2-4 in the past 6 fights, including a unanimous-decision loss to Lone'er Kavanagh in a fight night main event in his last fight on Feb. 28. That followed a Round 2 KO/TKO
loss to Tatsuro Taira at UFC 323. His last victory was via unanimous decision over Steve Erceg on March 29, 2025.
Morales is making the most of his second chance at the UFC level. After a 1-2 run with the company from August 2017 to November 2018, he went 2-0 in Cage Warriors, then posted a Round 3 submission win over Anthony Do at Urijah Faber's A1 Combat 8 in February 2023, then notched a split-decision win over Imanol Rodriguez at The Ultimate Fighter 33 semifinal Aug. 1, 2025. That earned him a return to the UFC, where he has since topped Alibi Idiris via submission at UFC 319 and stopped Matt Schnell via Round 1 submission in his most recent match, at a fight night last November.
Moreno holds a slight 1-inch reach advantage and a 3.84-to-2.00 significant strikes landed per minute advantage over the switch-stance Morales. He is more accurate on those strikes, too, posting a 50.15% mark, to 46.61% for Morales. On takedown average, it's Moreno with a 1.36-to-1.14 advantage, while Morales is slightly more accurate at 42.86% in the category, while Moreno checks in at 39.74%. On submission average, Morales has a 3.04 mark, with Moreno checking in at 0.40.
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Noche UFC: Moreno vs. Morales odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Moreno -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Morales -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -300 | No +210)
Noche UFC: Moreno vs. Morales picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
This is an interesting fight, and the books have it as a bit of a coin flip. Moreno needs a win to pull out of his nosedive while Morales is looking to keep making good on his second chance at the UFC level.
While this is a big step up in competition, MORALES (-115) is the play on the 2-way line. He is on a roll since getting his second chance, while it is Moreno now fighting to stay with the company. You have to ride with the hotter fighter.
Over/Under
Yes (-300): Fight to go the distance is too expensive, costing 3 times your potential return. Instead, go with MORALES BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+150) for the chance to multiply up by 1.5 times. On the flip side, if you prefer the former champ, Moreno by decision/technical decision (+125) would also be the way to go at plus-money. Everything else is rather expensive, either on the 5-way or 7-way method of victory lines.
Morales is very good at takedowns, too, and we'll go OVER 2.5 TAKEDOWNS - MORALES (+100) at even money. All of that fits in if he wins via decision.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Noche UFC Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales odds, picks and predictions
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