The Denver Nuggets open their 2026-27 season Thursday against the Oklahoma City Thunder (1-0) at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let's analyze NBA odds around the Nuggets vs. Thunder odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
2025-26 season series: Thunder won 3-1, taking both games in OKC
Denver had a disappointing end to the 2025-26 season, losing a first-round playoff series in 6 games to the Minnesota Timberwolves after finishing the regular season 54-28 and as the Western Conference No. 3 seed. Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic (27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds, 10.7 assists) leads the Nuggets, who didn't do much in the offseason. They traded F Peyton Watson, who averaged 14.6
points and 4.9 rebounds in 2026, to the Cleveland Cavaliers for draft picks in an attempt to stay under the luxury tax line. Watson was replaced by veteran F DeMar DeRozan (21.4 points).
Oklahoma City dominated the San Antonio Spurs 116-104 in the season-opener Tuesday to cover as a 1.5-point road favorite while the Under (229.5) hit. The final score of that game doesn't tell the full story as the Thunder were up as many as 26 in the first half after a dominant 31-16 second quarter. Back-to-back MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 32 points, and his backup Jared McCain scored 20 in just 22 minutes. OKC's defense was what led to the win, though; the Thunder racked up 18 stocks (steals + blocks) and held the Spurs to just 39% shooting from the field and 27% from deep.
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Nuggets at Thunder odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:26 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nuggets +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Thunder -325 (bet $325 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +8.5 (-110) | Thunder -8.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 235.5 (O: -118 | U: -110)
Nuggets at Thunder key injuries
Nuggets
- F Spencer Jones (hamstring) questionable
- G Julian Strawther (knee) out
Thunder
- C Thomas Sorber (knee) out
- G Nikola Topic (back) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Nuggets at Thunder picks and predictions
Prediction
Thunder 120, Nuggets 117
Moneyline
PASS.
The Thunder will win this game, but they aren't worth the risk of backing as -325 favorites, so pass here and bet on the spread and/or total instead.
Against the spread
LEAN NUGGETS +8.5 (-110).
The Thunder looked good against San Antonio, but F Jalen Williams (12 points, 5 of 16 shooting) looked rusty, and that rust will make this Thunder team just a little easier to guard. Also, a big part of the reason OKC beat the Spurs by 12 was that Spurs C Viktor Wembanyama was 1 of 13 shooting from the field, and Jokic simply will not have that bad of an offensive game. Look for Jokic to be the equalizer that helps a weaker Nuggets team keep this one close.
Over/Under
BET OVER 235.5 (-110).
Denver's offense is always lethal; it finished with a league-best 122.6 offensive rating last year. The Nuggets are mostly healthy entering this matchup, so expect their offense to have far more success here than San Antonio's did. On the other side, the Nuggets won't be able to guard Gilgeous-Alexander or either of OKC's bench guards, so look for this to be a game full of scoring.
The Over has hit in all of the last 6 matchups between these squads.
There is some risk here as OKC's defense could absolutely shut down the Nuggets, especially if they have a similar level of success shutting down Jokic as they did with Wemby.
Best prop bet
Thunder G SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER OVER 31.5 POINTS (-105).
Shai had 28 games scoring at least 32 points last year and 3 of them came against Denver, and all 3 came this calendar year. There is nobody on Denver's roster who can guard Shai on the perimeter, and Jokic offers little to no resistance around the rim, so look for Shai to score whenever and however he chooses to.
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder odds, picks and predictions
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