The Cleveland Guardians (74-73) and Minnesota Twins (69-77) tangle in the Friday opener of a 3-game AL Central set in Minneapolis, Minnesota. First pitch at Target Field is slated for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze MLB odds around the Guardians vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Minnesota leads 6-4
Cleveland is continuing a trip that opened with the club dropping 2 of 3 at the Baltimore Orioles Monday-Wednesday (the Guardians were off Thursday). Cleveland was a -118 when it lost Wednesday's game 9-5 (Over 8.5). The Guardians have not lost back-to-back road games since Aug. 10-11.
The Twins are back at home after a 2-4 road trip which concluded Wednesday with a 7-2 (Over 8.5) loss at the -124
Detroit Tigers. In that contest Minnesota failed to garner a hit with a runner in scoring position. The Twins have logged just 3 such hits while averaging 2.83 runs per game over their last half-dozen games.
The Guardians are 1 1/2 games behind the Chicago White Sox for the division lead and hold the third and final Wild Card spot. The Twins are 4 1/2 games out of the final spot, behind 3 other teams.
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Guardians at Twins projected starters
LHP Parker Messick vs. RHP Taj Bradley
Messick (11-9, 2.53 ERA) is making his 29th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 167 innings.
- Last outing: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 12 K in 6-0 loss vs. Detroit Tigers Saturday
- Career vs. Twins (regular season): 1-0, 2.16 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 16 H, 2 BB, 22 K in 3 starts
Bradley (11-6, 3.95 ERA) is making his 29th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 159 1/3 innings.
- Last outing: Win, 5 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 6-4 win at White Sox Saturday
- Career vs. Guardians (regular season): 2-1, 1.48 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 18 H, 13 BB, 36 K in 5 starts
Guardians at Twins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:46 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Twins +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+152) | Twins +1.5 (-184)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Guardians at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 4, Guardians 3
Moneyline
The last 9 series meetings have 6-3 tilt toward the Twins.
Messick has been really good this season but is likely too far out over his skis with a surface ERA of 2.53. A .262 batting average on balls in play has helped. And Messick has piled over 100 pitches in each of his last 2 starts and could run into some fatigue in this one.
The Twins counter with Bradley, who has filed better indicators than results over recent starts and who owns a solid 3.30 ERA at Target Field. In 14 IP vs. Cleveland this season, the Minnesota righty has allowed just 2 runs on 5 hits. Per ESPN, current Cleveland bats own an aggregate .607 OPS against him.
Bradley is backed by the better offense in this matchup. Cleveland has the better bullpen, but the Twins have their relief corps posting better advanced metrics, if not results, of late.
TAKE THE TWINS (+102).
Run line/Against the spread
No interest; PASS.
Over/Under
Good starters and rested back ends of the bullpens tilt this one toward the men on the mound. Cleveland is a bottom-5 offensive club and is not too far removed from an Aug. 28-Sept. 6 stretch that saw the Guardians clock a mere .660 OPS. The Twins batting attack has been streaky; of late it looks to be on a downturn.
THE UNDER 7.5 (-110) is a slight lean.
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions
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