The No. 17 USC Trojans (5-1, 2-1) take on the Penn State Nittany Lions (3-2, 0-2) at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania, Saturday. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC). Let's analyze college football odds around the USC vs. Penn State odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
USC got back in the win column with a 25-21 home victory over the Washington Huskies last Saturday. As 7.5-point favorites, the Trojans failed to cover the spread a fourth game in a row, while the Under (58.5) snapped a 3-game Over streak for the Trojans. USC overcame a 21-10 third-quarter deficit with 15 unanswered points, which included DT Jahkeem Stewart's 48-yard fumble return for a TD for a 22-21 late in the quarter.
Penn State enters on a 2-game slide, recently getting upset as a 2.5-point favorite at the Northwestern Wildcats 34-13 in a Friday night game (Oct. 2) as the Under (47.5) cashed. It's the third time in 4 games the Nittany Lions didn't cover. Penn State's offense continued to look inept without WR Koby Howard (lower-body injury) as the only Penn State player with over 50 yards was WR Chase Sowell (5 catches, 68 yards). Howard will miss this game, too. The real stunner vs. the Wildcats was on the defensive end, where the Nittany Lions gave up 413 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs -- Northwestern's top 2 RBs accounting for 350 rushing yards and 3 TDs.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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USC at Penn State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:51 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): USC +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Penn State -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): USC +1.5 (-110) | Penn State -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
USC at Penn State picks and predictions
Prediction
USC 42, Penn State 17
Moneyline
BET USC (+100).
The Nittany Lions (-120) have struggled in the ground game. They rank 71st in the country with 156.4 rushing yards per game, per NCAA.com. They finished with just 48 rushing yards in the Northwestern loss. It doesn't help that the passing game suffers with Howard out. In a 24-20 home loss to the Wisconsin Badgers Sept. 26, only 1 Penn State WR caught a pass -- Sowell has 6 catches for 70 yards, TE Benjamin Brahmer had 4 catches for 36 yards and RB Quinton Martin Jr. finished with 2 catches for 5 yards.
Penn State has a terrible offense and terrible run defense, while USC bolsters one of the most potent offenses in the country, ranking 29th with 467.8 yards per game.
Expect USC (+100) to have no problem here.
Against the spread
PASS.
The Trojans will cover, but there's no need to worry about taking the 1.5 points when I expect them to win outright.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 54.5 (-110).
Penn State has a very good passing defense, but that unit won't be able to hold up and prevent scores and big plays, especially because the Nittany Lions will have to sell out so hard to have any chance of stopping the run. USC may start slow, but eventually that offense will wear down Penn State's defense and start driving at will.
The Over has hit in 3 of USC's last 4 games and is 2-1 in Penn State's last 3. The Over has also hit in the last 3 matchups between these squads.
This is a lean because Penn State's offense is so bad that it can't be counted on to put up points to help the Over cash.
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany Lions odds, picks and predictions
