The Cleveland Guardians and the Tampa Bay Rays meet Monday for Game 1 of their American League Championship Series at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. First pitch is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (TBS / truTV / HBO Max). Let's analyze MLB odds around the Guardians vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Regular-season series: Rays won 5-1
These teams have met in the postseason before, with Cleveland losing in a single-game Wild Card playoff in 2013, before it topped Tampa Bay in a best-of-3 series in 2022, also in the ALWC.
Tampa Bay heads into this ALCS after dominating the New York Yankees in a 3-game sweep in the ALDS. It scored 10 runs in 3 games, which isn't that impressive, but it allowed just 6
runs, including a 1-0 win in Game 1 at Tropicana Field behind 8 scoreless IP by Monday's starter, RHP Drew Rasmussen. He struck out 10 Yankees batters in a postseason start for the ages.
Rasmussen appeared in relief in Game 2 of the 2022 AL Wild Card Series in Cleveland, working 1 2/3 IP of scoreless relief with 2 K in a 1-0 loss in 15 innings.
Cleveland edged the Chicago White Sox in 5 games, coming back from a 0-2 series deficit. The Guardians lost the first 2 games at home, and appeared to be on their way to a disappointing postseason. But, Cleveland turned things around in Game 3, as the bats came alive at Rate Field, scoring 9 runs. It did the same in Game 4, before RHP Gavin Williams and the bullpen blanked the ChiSox 2-0 in Game 5 to advance.
LHP Foster Griffin takes the ball for Cleveland in Game 1, as he makes his first postseason start. He appeared in relief in Game 3 against the White Sox, striking out 7 batters in his 8 recorded outs, allowing a run and 2 hits in the 53-pitch effort in his first playoff appearance. Tampa Bay was 31-17 vs. LHP during the regular season, and it did not face him either as a member of the Guardians, or when he was with the Washington Nationals, prior to the deadline.
Rasmussen faced Cleveland twice in the regular season, going 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA (12 IP, 2 ER) with 15 Ks. On July 26, at The Trop, he allowed just a single hit and a walk in 7 scoreless innings for his ninth win, a 1-0 victory. He lost in Cleveland April 29, giving up 3 runs (2 ER) in 5 IP with 6 hits and a walk in a 3-1 loss at Progressive Field.
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Guardians at Rays projected starters
LHP Foster Griffin vs. RHP Drew Rasmussen
Griffin (15-6, 3.60 ERA with Nationals and Guardians) made 31 starts in the regular season. He posted a 1.21 WHIP with 2.4 BB/9, 8.2 K/9 in 172 2/3 innings.
- Last outing (Game 3 at White Sox): Win, 2 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 9-3 road win in relief in first-career postseason appearance
- 2026 regular-season road splits (16 starts): 8-4, 3.76 ERA (88 2/3 IP, 37 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 10 HR, 22 BB, 84 K
- Career vs. Rays (1 relief appearance with Toronto Blue Jays): 2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 2 K on Sept. 22, 2022
Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA) made 30 regular-season starts. He had a 0.91 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9, 9.1 K/9 in 172 innings.
- Last start (Game 1 vs. Yankees): Win, 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 10 K in 1-0 in Game 1 of AL Wild Card Oct. 3
- Career postseason stats (2 starts, 4 appearances): 1-0, 2.13 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 15 K), 0.79 WHIP
- 2026 regular-season home splits (15 starts): 9-3, 2.87 ERA (84 2/3 IP, 27 ER), 5 HR, 18 BB, 86 K
- Career vs. Guardians (6 starts, 8 appearances - regular season): 1-1, 2.73 ERA (29 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
Guardians at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:47 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Rays -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-160) | Rays -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Guardians at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 3, Guardians 1
Moneyline
The RAYS (-170) are moderate favorites for the series opener, and that's an awfully big number.
Will Tampa Bay have any rust after being off nearly a full week, or is it better to take Cleveland, who streaks in with 3 straight wins and a lot of momentum after topping Chicago? That's the big question. However, Rasmussen was dominant against the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS, and the wait between the regular season and that series didn't seem to affect him or the team, so that's what we're going with.
Run line/Against the spread
If you're a little more adventurous, taking a chance on RAYS -1.5 (+135) at plus-money is certainly a choice. This should be a low-scoring game, but it could be a tempting value in a 2-0 or 3-1 kind of game.
Over/Under
UNDER 6.5 (+100) at even-money is worth a look. We're not terribly worried about Rasmussen, who proved he is a primetime pitcher in pushing past the Yankees in Game 1. The concern is about Griffin, but the southpaw had electric stuff in his first postseason outing, striking out 7 batters in the 8 outs he recorded, so if he brings that kind of stuff to the dome, Tampa Bay might not hit him so hard, either.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions
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