If the New Orleans Saints are going to outscore the Atlanta Falcons in prime time, they'll need to check off these four items on their do-do list. There's a lot more to pro football than just scoring more points than your opponent. The Saints can secure their win conditions by continuing to do well on critical third downs and red zone scoring opportunities while maintaining their pace of play, but they have a lot of work to do in other phases like the run game. Let's highlight what they must achieve on offense against the Falcons.
Find a way to run the ball
Tyler Shough has been the team's most explosive runner through three games, with their longest rush (36 yards) and two carries of 10 or more yards on just 13 carries. Travis Etienne Jr. only has three gains of 10-plus
yards on 31 attempts, and just one of Alvin Kamara's rushes has met that yardstick (for an 11-yard gain) on 18 tries. There haven't been many open lanes for rushers to charge through, but when they have been there the Saints haven't taken advantage of space by forcing missed tackles at the second level. With Etienne expected to miss this game due to a hamstring injury, their best hope might be asking Kendre Miller to break off a big run, but he hasn't done so yet. At least CJ Donaldson is still near-perfect with three first downs on four carries, only once coming up a yard short.
Protect the football (and Tyler Shough)
A lot of this falls on Shough, but not all of it. It's true that he's thrown three interceptions across three games. He's also fumbled three times. He needs to more effectively survey the field and walk that fine line between playing with aggression and recklessness. But that's easier said than done, especially with breakdowns in pass protection. The Saints can't put backup left tackle Asim Richards on an island the way they did Kelvin Banks Jr. Richards mostly held up well against the Las Vegas Raiders but two turnovers came off of reps where he got beat. Giving Richards more help and designing plays to account for more pressure off the left side are key. Shough has also been sacked 10 times for a loss of 73 yards. That ranks second only to Baker Mayfield (13 sacks) and Aaron Rodgers (77 yards), respectively. No team blitzes less frequently than Atlanta (13.2%), so a lot of this relies on the offensive line winning their matchups.
Chris Olave can't be the only viable deep threat
Just three defenses have given up more air yards this season than the Falcons (477), who have also seen the most opposing pass attempts (130) while ranking seventh-worst in defensive average depth of targets (9.0 yards). That plays to Shough's strengths, and the best plays the Saints have run this season have featured him targeting Olave deep downfield. Olave is in for a good battle with CJ Henderson, the former Jacksonville Jaguars first-round pick who has done well for himself in Atlanta. Henderson ranks second with five forced incompletions but he has given up two touchdowns. This could be a good game for Devaughn Vele to see more targets, but don't sleep on Bryce Lance. The rookie had a couple of misfires against the Raiders but he's a natural fit on the fast track at the Caesars Superdome. Hitting him on a couple of long gains would dramatically alter Atlanta's plans defensively.
Keep up the pressure on third downs
This is going to be a battle of strength on strength. The New Orleans offense ranks fourth-best in third down conversions (53.2%), while the Falcons defense looks formidable in a tie for eighth-best (35.7%). Whether it's an effective pressure package, smart play calling by defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, or just good luck, Atlanta has done a good job of getting off the field. The Saints have been even more effective extending their drives. Shough goes to Olave more than anyone else on third down (10 targets for 8 catches, all conversions) and we should expect that to continue. Of course he's going to look for his best playmaker in a critical moment. But the Saints can't afford to get discouraged or try to play it safe if they come up short early on. If they take too conservative an approach, the Falcons can snuff them out.
This article originally appeared on Saints Wire: 4 keys for Saints offense in Week 4 prime-time game vs. Falcons
