Before we start, some obvious statements. Firstly, we do not know when Opening Day will take place in 2027. With the expiration of the agreement between the owners and the players, and the highly contentious nature of the upcoming negotiations (in particular, around the introduction of a salary cap), it’s possible there may not even be a 2027 Opening Day. However, I’d say odds are strongly on the side of there being some kind of season, albeit in a shortened form. Next, this is super early. We haven’t
even had contract tenders yet. What follows also presumes perfect health, which on the basis of previous seasons, is not going to happen. That all said…
The definites
Let’s start with listing the roster spots which are, at the time of writing, definitely filled. We’ll then break down each area and look at the most plausible candidates to fill in the gaps.
- Catcher: Gabriel Moreno
- First base:
- Second base: Ketel Marte#
- Shortstop: Geraldo Perdomo#
- Third base: Nolan Arenado
- Left field: Lars Nootbaar*
- Center field:
- Right field: Corbin Carroll*
- Designated hitter:
- Starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
- Starting pitcher: Eduardo Rodriguez
- Starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt
- Starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly
- Starting pitcher:
- Closer: Justin Martinez
- Set-up: Juan Morillo
- Set-up: Brandyn Garcia
- Reliever:
- Reliever:
- Reliever:
- Reliever:
I don’t think many of the above need explanation. I’ve tagged the starting line-up with markers for whether they hit left-handed (*) or are switch-hitters (#), because this is a factor in what the team will look for to fill in the blanks. These players are all under contract for 2027. However, note that a blank doesn’t necessarily mean the team has to sign or trade for someone to fill the position. It may mean there is no overwhelmingly clear internal candidate, and as we’ll see, some of these may still be filled with players already in the organization. I also haven’t even mentioned the bench, because I’d say there are no “definites”. There are some “highly likelys” though.
The starting line-up
Three spots remain uncertain: first base, center field and designated hitter. The free-agent market at 1B is pretty terrible. Only three potential FA players put up even one fWAR this year: Ty France, Jake Bauers and Paul Goldschmidt. Much though the fan-base would like to see Goldy back, I’m highly skeptical. Bauers would be nice, also plays the corner outfield, and would add the left-handed thump, having hit 26 home-runs. He only turned 31 earlier in the week, so we’re not talking Carlos Santana v2.0. It’s been estimated the team might have around $20 million to add to the 2027 payroll. But that might not be enough for Bauers, predicted to earn almost $30 million.
This will probably cause some tiny heads on Twitter to explode, but I’d expect the team to go with a platoon of Pavin Smith and Tyler Locklear at first. Small sample size (33 PA), but Smith looked much better when he came back up in September (.290/.333/.548 for an .882 OPS). Locklear is a player for whom the health issue tabled above is perhaps the most serious concern. September has been a cursed month for him the past two years, tearing his elbow and shoulder in 2025, then fracturing a thumb this year. However, these seem more the result of bad luck than bad health. Smith, as a lefty, will see most action, with Locklear on the bench.
Center field is a spot where the team has clear internal options. We saw two of them play the position this year: Ryan Waldschmidt (53 starts) and Jordan Lawlar (29). Both are currently 24 years old and hit right-handed, so no advantage to either there. Lawlar hit better in 2026 (OPS+ 115 vs 94), albeit in about half the number of plate appearances. However, Jordan has his share of health concerns this year, including a fractured wrist, strained hamstring and a concussion scare after getting hit in the head. This is almost flipping a coin, but I’d give it to Lawlar, with Waldschmidt becoming the fourth outfielder.
Designated hitter is a spot where I can see the team spending some of the $20 million. There has been some suggestion about moving Ketel Marte to DH, but that would just create a hole at second, which might be harder to fill. The team has had some success in previous seasons with the likes of Joc Pederson in 2024. He had a decent bounceback season with the Rangers, producing a 134 OPS+ and will be a free agent this winter again, after signing a two-year, $37 million contract. Might be too rich for us, if he wants something similar, and I can see us going after a reunion with switch-hitting Josh Bell, who played for Arizona in 2024.
- First base: Pavin Smith
- Center field: Jordan Lawlar
- Designated hitter: Josh Bell (free-agent)
The bench
I’m going to presume we go with 13 position players, which would mean a four-man bench. Based on the discussion above, we already have two members on the bench, in Tyler Locklear and Ryan Waldschmidt. While I’d not be surprised by an Ildemaro Vargas re-signing, I’m adding Tim Tawa as one of the “highly likelys” I mentioned. He appeared in 104 games for the D-backs, started at five different positions plus DH, and had a respectable 91 OPS+. We still need a backup catcher. For the former, I can see a third year with James McCann filling the role. Torey Lovullo’s a big fan, singing the catcher’s praises after he signed last winter, and McCann seems to like the organization too.
- Bench: Tyler Locklear
- Bench: Ryan Waldschmidt
- Bench: Tim Tawa
- Bench: James McCann (free agent)
The rotation
Just a single spot to be filled in the Opening Day rotation, and this is an area where we’ll be going with one from the plethora of internal candidates. However, none of the ones used in 2025 exactly covered themselves in glory. Ryne Nelson (15), Mitch Bratt (10), Jose Cabrera (5) and Kohl Drake (5) combined for 35 starts, but went 4-12 with a collective 5.14 ERA in those. None of them had an ERA for the year below 4.70 or a FIP under 5.12. While the others are still young, Nelson will turn 29 before pitchers and catchers report – whenever that may be. After a breakout campaign in 2025, this year was a hard reality check. But his experience likely gives him the job, until the others prove themselves better.
- Starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson
The bullpen
The good news: the Diamondbacks bullpen in 2026 was the best in a while. Since exactly when, depends on your preferred metric. By ERA, since 2018. By FIP and fWAR, since 2017. And by Win Probability, since 2007. Part of that is, admittedly, relative. They ranked only 16th in the majors by relief ERA. Still, we’ll take it. The bad news? A lot of the innings need to be replaced. Our top three by bullpen IP (Taylor Clarke, Kevin Ginkel and Jonathan Loaisiga) are free agents, as are Paul Sewald and Ryan Thompson. All told? We have lost five of our top seven by IP, and must replace 285 innings (almost half all bullpen work), at a better than average 3.76 ERA. A full season from Justin Martinez is barely a start.
We didn’t get much help otherwise. Beyond those seven and JMart, seven other pitchers threw 10+ relief innings. While the usual caveats about reliever volatility and small sample sizes apply, of those seven only impending free-agent Dennis Santana and Gerardo Carrillo had an ERA below five. I’m hoping Andrew Saalfrank can return to something approaching previous form (career ERA+ 243!) after missing all of 2026 due to shoulder surgery. Beyond that though? While the back end looks solid, it really looks like Mike Hazen is going to have to rebuild much of the bullpen again over the winter. Expect more dumpster diving for depth, but I’d not be surprised to see one or more of Clarke, Ginkel and Loaisiga resign.
- Reliever: Gerardo Carillo
- Reliever: Andrew Saalfrank
- Reliever: Jonathan Loaisiga (free agent)
- Reliever: Taylor Clarke (free agent)
Feel free, of course, to disagree with me in the comments, argue over who will (or will not) be back, and discuss where the team should spent the relatively small amount of money it looks like they’ll have available.
