I think now is a very good time to check on the minor leagues. A month has been played at all levels (except the rookie leagues, but they haven’t started their seasons yet) and while a month of playing time isn’t necessarily a good sample, it can tell us things. Players can have such strong first months that it fuels their later promotion, or players can start so slow that it significantly delays when they will get promoted. We shouldn’t overreact to either. Today I wanted to focus on the hitters,
because they simply have a better sample than the pitchers.
Memphis
Joshua Baez, OF – 23 (#6 VEB prospect)
Stats: 33 G, 146 PAs, .229/.308/.450, 7.5 BB%, 34.2 K%, .221 ISO, .311 BABIP, 94 wRC+
I know there were some people who wanted Baez to make the team out of spring training, but I think we need to prepare ourselves for the possibility that Baez might not be ready for the big leagues all year. At this point, I think an ideal outcome is something like what happened with Masyn Winn. Winn got hot in the middle of the year in 2023, built up his hitting line and got a final month and change to see what MLB pitching looks like. Baez doesn’t have as far to go as Winn did (Winn was as low as a 77 wRC+ on June 11th), but he does need to strike out significantly less. I also would expect a bit of a learning curve when he does make the majors (hence why a month and change this year might be ideal).
Leonardo Bernal, C – 22 (#7 VEB prospect)
Stats: 31 G, 133 PAs, .243/.331/.374, 12 BB%, 23.3 K%, .131 ISO, .301 BABIP, 85 wRC+
Things are more or less on track for Bernal – I would expect him to have a below average hitting line in his first 100 PAs, and there’s nothing alarming in the way he’s gotten there. You’d hope for a little more power and a little less strikeouts, but again these look like what I would expect from Bernal if he needed some time to adjust to a new level. He’s still walking, the strikeouts are reasonable, and he has a little punch. We will see Jimmy Crooks this year, we will probably not see Bernal, but that was the expectation going in.
Jimmy Crooks, C – 24 (#8 VEB prospect)
Stats: 30 G, 134 PAs, ..264/.418/.632, 17.9 BB%, 30 K%, .368 ISO, .296 BABIP, 165 wRC+
By the numbers, it looks like Crooks is ready for the major leagues with his K rate finally going down. I’m going to push back on that a little here. Two reasons: first, I don’t really trust his BB rate. Pitchers will not walk him 18% of the time in the majors. He has certainly increased my expectation of how much he’ll walk at the MLB level, but I don’t know if he’ll be a high BB guy based on 2025, both in the majors and Memphis. I also don’t trust his power numbers, because I didn’t realize this until now, but his HR/FB% is literally 50%. Half of the flyballs he has hit have been homers. Aaron Judge doesn’t do that. Judge’s career rate is 31.8% and just 19 qualified hitters had even over a 20% HR/FB% last season. These would not be concerns for me if his K rate was 25%, which I think he is capable of at Memphis. He lowered his K% four and half points this past week and had four extra base hits so he might get there soon.
Bryan Torres, 2B/OF – 28 (40 man roster)
Stats: 29 G, 135 PAs, .330/.440/.500, 15.6 BB%, 13.3 K%, .170 ISO, .382 BABIP, 148 wRC+
I’m not going to say his ISO is misleading, but he’s on pace for three less homers than last season with the same amount of PAs. He’s only hit two homers. He’s hitting more doubles. Which is great, but I don’t really think his power has actually improved, you know? I would still like to see him at the MLB level. He definitely won’t walk this much, I’m more curious on how much he’ll strike out. Because I think he’ll walk as much as a player like him can, so his success at the MLB will hinge on if his K rate is 15% or 20%.
Blaze Jordan, 1B/3B – 23
Stats: 33 G, 140 PAs, .307/.371/.575, 7.9 BB%, 12.1 K%, .268 ISO, .304 BABIP, 141 wRC+
Unfortunately, Jordan got hit by a pitch in his face yesterday and had to be removed from the game. Hopefully, nothing is seriously wrong, he can come back soon, and continue raking. To compare him to Crooks, Jordan’s HR/FB% is 29.6%, which is more than he’ll have in the major leagues, but hopefully represents a genuine improvement in power. For most of his minor league career, he’s been around 14%. Bump that up a few percentage points and his MLB picture certainly changes.
Colton Ledbetter, OF – 24
Stats: 30 G, 127 PAs, .200/.268/.304, 7.1 BB%, 37 K%, .104 ISO, .324 BABIP, 48 wRC+
There is good news. He was on an epic slump from April 14th to April 24th, where he went hitless in six of his eight games played and in the two games he got a hit, he hit a single and that was it. But since April 25th, Ledbetter has a 9.5 BB%, 23.8 K%, a .164 ISO, and a 134 wRC+. Yes, he didn’t hit a homer and yes he had a .444 BABIP in that stretch, so let’s hope he gets home run power, but I am particularly encouraged by the K/BB after his awful, awful start to the year.
Ramon Mendoza, 2B/3B – 25
Stats: 26 G, 107 PAs, .316/.393/.495, 11.2 BB%, 23.4 K%, .179 ISO, .403 BABIP, 134 wRC+
I don’t think Mendoza is a part of the plan. He’s not technically a starter. Blaze Jordan tends to be at 3B, Torres tends to be at 2B, the outfield is a combo of Nelson Velazquez, Baez, and Ledbetter while one of the catcher DHs. But he keeps hitting. He is forcing his way into more playing time. He hit his third homer yesterday. He exclusively plays 2B or 3B so I don’t know how good his defense is, but he’s a fun story.
Nelson Velasquez, OF – 27
Stats: 29 G, 114 PAs, .188/.316/.344, 14.9 BB%, 28.1 K%, .156 ISO, .233 BABIP, 76 wRC+
I thought about not sharing his stats at all, but he is outfield depth on a team that regularly plays infielders in the outfield so it’s possible he will get hot and become a factor later in the year, especially if Baez doesn’t appear to be ready. With that aside, he is going to need to go on a real heater for that to be the case, because he has started very slow.
Springfield
Deniel Ortiz, 1B/3B – 21 (#18 VEB prospect)
Ortiz suffered a wrist injury, and that’s about all we know. Minor league injury information is very scant. He hasn’t played since the first game of the year, when he went 0-5 with two strikeouts. Pretty unfortunate.
Chase Davis, OF – 24
Stats: 27 G, 118 PAs, .198/.347/.385, 18.6 BB%, 29.7 K%, .188 ISO, .250 BABIP, 95 wRC+
That is one ugly average to look at, however I do think there’s reason for optimism with Davis. Namely, the thing that got him drafted was his power and he’s already hit half the homers he did last year. It remains to be seen if that’s causing his low BABIP, but we’re still in far too small sample territory. He wasn’t going to be anything more than a defense-first outfielder with how he hit last year, if he can find power, maybe there’s something here.
Zach Levenson, OF – 24
Stats: 29 G, 119 PAs, .186/.303/.265, 14.3 BB%, 23.5 K%, .078 ISO, .247 BABIP, 58 wRC+
Levenson has the kind of hitting line that really makes you appreciate Chase Davis’ line. Which says more about Levenson unfortunately. But not a whole lot in the numbers to get excited about here. He finished his season strong last year in Springfield, but in slightly more PAs this year, he has not been able to build on that quite yet.
Jeremy Rivas, SS – 23
Stats: 27 G, 104 PAs, .247/.365/.376, 13.5 BB%, 21.6 K%, .129 ISO, .302 BABIP, 101 wRC+
Very good start for Rivas. He did start hot last year too, so buyer beware. But Rivas is a defense-first shortstop who isn’t considered a prospect, because of his bat. If he can hit at all, literally at all, he will be a major leaguer. He made it to Springfield very young, at 21, entirely on the strength of his defense, and he got close to an average hitting line, but it came with no power. Last year, he added sufficient power, but the strikeouts and BABIP made him a bad hitter. If, and it’s a big if, he can have just enough power, strike out a normal amount, and still manage decent BABIPs, he might become an actual prospect.
Travis Honeyman, OF – 24
Stats: 27 G, 108 PAs, .293/.398/.391, 13 BB%, 17.8 K%, .098 ISO, .352 BABIP, 118 wRC+
Honeyman still needs more power, especially at Springfield, but he hit his second home run yesterday. He hit two all last year. He was drafted in 2023, and then had 82 total PAs between the rest of 2023 and the 2024 season. He missed some time to injury last season too. It’s entirely possible he will find enough power to make the rest of his profile work – because power is really the only thing missing.
Miguel Ugueto, OF – 23
Stats: 26 G, 110 PAs, .283/.351/.434, 5.5 BB%, 14.5 K%, .151 ISO, .321 BABIP, 108 wRC+
Claimed in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft prior to last season, there was no reason to think anything of Ugueto, especially when he hit for a 67 wRC+. There probably still isn’t, but he’s made himself interesting. He has also, it’s worth noting, stolen 16 bases to one caught stealing. This is a pretty stark difference from last season when he stole 9 bases to 5 caught stealing in Springfield.
Ryan Campos, C – 23
Stats: 27 G, 116 PAs, .295/.414/.484, 16.2 BB%, 23.4 K%, .189 ISO, .364 BABIP, 138 wRC+
Oh boy you are in the wrong organization. That’s right, we have a catcher who has always had a good eye but never had power come bursting out in the first month with power. He has hit more homers so far this season than his previous 527 PAs as a professional. He is a tiny, tiny guy, so there are still concerns, but do we have to start paying attention to yet another catcher? This is getting ridiculous.
Jon Jon Gazdar, 2B/SS – 24
Stats: 24 G, 113 PAs, .227/.333/.361, 10.6 BB%, 12.4 K%, .134 ISO, .235 BABIP, 85 wRC+
Springfield is just filled with guys who need to add power. They are in the right place. If Gazdar had a normal BABIP, he’d have a really good hitting line. And it’s tough to say if a hitter is unlucky or not in this small of a sample. But I’d say this is good news more than bad news despite the below average hitting line.
Well honestly, I ended up covering more players than I expected, so this one is going to have to be a two-parter on just the hitters. Memphis has a pretty stacked lineup, Springfield certainly is worse off than last season.
