Happy Thursday, TOC Nation. This column has been away for a few weeks with a bye last week and the game against UCLA before that, which does not have an SB Nation site. But we are back for our in-state hate game. I sat down with Von Lozon of Maize N Brew for a quick look at this weekend’s opponent. Let’s see what he had to say.
The Only Colors: UM is in the first year under head coach Kyle Whittingham. Did that hire take you by surprise? Aside from any surprise, what were your thoughts on the hire?
What were your expectations for this season in terms of performance and record?
Von Lozon: I wasn’t surprised, but I was skeptical of the hire simply due to his age and me wondering how much he had left in the tank. I never thought he was a bad coach or anything like that — if anything, I thought he was one of the more underrated coaches in the country — but I was a little nervous about how things would translate at Michigan and in the Big Ten. I thought this team’s ceiling heading into the year was 9-3, which they can still technically reach, but I would be incredibly shocked if that happened.
TOC: Your season opener came down to a famously controversial ending. I won’t ask you for your thoughts on how that played out. But I would like to know how much panic you had after that first game? After that 1st game, UM was expected to lose their 2nd game against Oklahoma. How did that win reshape your expectations?
VL: Given my offseason skepticism, I was really worried following the WMU game. But then the Wolverines beat Oklahoma the very next week and I was thinking to myself, “Okay, maybe that is more of what we should expect.” And then the next week, Michigan was in a first-half dog fight against UTEP, so at that point, I knew this would be a team that plays up (and down) to its competition. That has continued every week all season, as the only game that wasn’t a one-score affair was that UTEP game. Needless to say, it’s been a roller coaster of a year for Michigan.
TOC: Whittingham has made a switch at QB, with Tommy Carr taking over a couple games ago as the starter. What do you think went wrong with Bryce Underwood? Should the switch have been made sooner? What do you like about Carr’s game that makes him better than Underwood?
VL: It’s a really curious case, right? Underwood flashed his potential at times during his freshman season, but he looked even more lost this year before the coaching staff made the change. It’s interesting, especially considering all the reports coming out of fall camp were that Underwood had improved under the new coaching staff’s direction and should take a sophomore leap. But his freshman tendencies (staring down one receiver, bailing out of the pocket too soon, etc.) came back to haunt him this season, resulting in far too many negative plays and turnovers.
I do think the switch should have been made during the game at Minnesota, but admittedly, that would have been a really tough spot to put a freshman quarterback in the game for the first time. The thing I like so far about Carr is his poise. He hasn’t let anything phase him too much yet — even though he struggled at the start of the Indiana game with a couple of turnovers, he kept his head down, kept working and eventually put Michigan in a good position to win (thanks a lot, Jason Beck!).
TOC: Tell us about the Wolverine defense. What is the base formation? What level of the D is the best? What player do the MSU coaches most need to game plan for?
VL: The defense is by far the best part of this football team. Jay Hill runs a true 4-3 defensive scheme with the linebackers playing off the ball. The wrinkle is that one of the linebackers can be a bit of a hybrid player at times. Depending on the call, that linebacker can be up on the line of scrimmage setting the edge or dropping into the box. It gives Michigan’s defense some flexibility without needing to change personnel. Look for Chase Taylor (No. 4), who has been in this role quite a bit this year, as well as MIKE linebacker Troy Bowles (No. 18).
The best level of the defense is the defensive line. Michigan can rotate edge rushers like John Henry Daley, Dom Nichols, Nate Marshall, Benny Patterson III, and true freshmen Tariq Boney and Carter Meadows without a real drop-off. The interior group of Trey Pierce, Enow Etta and Jonah Lea’ea has been solid as well. That depth lets them stay fresh and keep the pressure on for four quarters.
The player MSU needs to game plan for is Daley. He missed last week’s game due to an injury, but he is expected to play this weekend. He leads the team in sacks (4) and also has 6.5 tackles for loss. When he has been on the field, he has been Michigan’s best edge rusher. Nichols is right behind him, and the two of them together are why the defense can get to the quarterback so often without blitzing.
TOC: Fill in the blank: UM will win if ___________. UM will lose if ___________.
VL: U-M will win if they avoid turning the ball over, run the ball well (AKA: go on long drives that drain the clock), and score touchdowns, not field goals, in the red zone.
U-M will lose if they turn the ball over, give up some explosive plays to MSU’s offense (much like vs Rutgers last week), and take MSU lightly. On that last point, I’m a little worried these guys don’t really know a whole lot about this rivalry. Kyle Whittingham has said multiple times that this game is important, but it isn’t the most important rivalry game Michigan has. Savion Hiter said all he knows about this game is that the rivalry is “dirty.” I really have not enjoyed hearing the things that some of these guys have said throughout the week, so I really, really hope Michigan doesn’t take MSU for granted.
TOC: Predict the final score.
VL: Michigan 20, Michigan State 17.
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TOC would like to thank Von for his contributions to this article. Let’s hope his concerns about the um players and coaches not appreciating the bitterness of the rivalry turns into a thing and that our Spartans use a more determined attitude to get the W.
