When | Wednesday, 8 p.m. CT
Where | Mizzou Arena; Columbia, Mo.
TV | SEC Network
Radio | Tiger Radio Network
Twitter | @MizzouHoops
KenPom prediction |
Vanderbilt -6ESPN win probability | 35.0% chance
The Starters
Mizzou
G: T.O. Barrett (SO, 7.9 PPG)
G: Jayden Stone (GR, 14.9 PPG)
F: Trent Pierce (JR, 9.7 PPG)
F: Mark Mitchell (SR, 17.2 PPG)
C: Shawn Phillips Jr. (SR, 7.7 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Jacob Crews (GR, 10.2 PPG)
Vanderbilt
G: Tyler Tanner (SO, 18.3 PPG)
F: Tyler Nickel (SR, 14.8 PPG)
F: AK Okereke (GR, 9.4 PPG)
F: Devin McGlockton
(SR, 10.2 PPG)
F: Jalen Washington (SR, 9.0 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Chandler Bing (FR, 3.0 PPG)
Note: these starting lineups are projected.
Get to know Vanderbilt: a team taking a major leap under its second-year head coach
Entering this season, there were plenty of parallels to be drawn between Mizzou and Vanderbilt in men’s basketball. Both teams were coming off NCAA Tournament appearances that ended in a first round loss, and each squad seemingly had the potential to exceed preseason expectations thanks to an increasingly valuable commodity in today’s era of collegiate athletics: proven, returning production.
The Tigers had Mark Mitchell and Anthony Robinson II, while the Commodores returned double-digit scorers in starting forwards Tyler Nickel and Devin McGlockton. Although the teams shared some notable similarities entering the year, their seasons quickly diverged. Mizzou has found itself in a constant battle to stay on the bubble since the beginning of SEC play following a disappointing non-conference performance. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, is solidly in the tournament field after a red-hot start.
Mark Byington’s squad reeled off 16 consecutive wins to begin the year, rising as high as 10th in the AP top 25 poll. The Commodores hit their first true bump in the road in mid-January, dropping three straight games to Texas, Florida and Arkansas. It didn’t take long for them to get back on track, though, and they’ve won five of their last six games since their only losing streak of the season.
Vanderbilt’s rise from 11th in the SEC preseason poll to one of the best teams in the conference has been led by an unlikely hero: Tyler Tanner. The sophomore guard was a valuable role player for the Commodores last season but took a major leap in development this year, leading the team with 18.3 points per game and averaging 5.4 assists while improving his shooting to 37.2 percent from three-point range.
Byington’s trio of returnees was bolstered by a quality transfer class that placed in the top-10 of On3’s portal rankings, which considers both incoming and outgoing production. Vandy added multiple forwards in AK Okereke, who played a starring role last year at Cornell, double-digit scorer Tyler Harris from Washington and a valuable defensive piece in Jalen Washington out of North Carolina.
The team’s most important addition, though, was veteran guard Duke Miles from Oklahoma. He paired with Tanner to form a dangerous back court duo and averaged 16.6 points with 34.1 percent shooting from beyond the arc before going down with an injury in late January against Mississippi State. Byington said Miles is expected back in the next week or two after missing the team’s last five games, putting a huge piece of the Commodores’ success back into place entering the final stretch of the season.
Most squads would slow down after losing one of their key pieces. Instead, Vanderbilt adjusted and continued to roll through the competition, going 4-1 in his absence. The Commodores opted for a larger lineup with Miles out of action, inserting Washington into the starting lineup and leaving Tanner as the lone guard among the starting five. They’ve also relied heavily on a small group of seven players, with guards Mike James and especially true freshman Chandler Bing (yes, you read that correctly; could there BE a more obvious candidate for the all-name team?) providing most of the team’s minutes off the bench.
Vanderbilt has fallen to 19th in the top-25 since its undefeated start, but the team is still loved by some of the advanced metrics used by the selection committee — meaning a win over the Commodores could end up being extremely valuable for the Tigers’ resume. There’s a reason why beating Vandy has been such a major positive for opposing teams, though: home or away, Byington’s squad is incredibly tough to beat.
3 Keys to the Game
Take control of the paint
Over the last four games, Mizzou established a distinct identity that could lead it to a tournament berth. Control the interior and the rebounding battle while hitting just enough shots from outside, and the team finds success. Saturday’s game against Texas, though, was an exercise in what happens when the Tigers are unable to find success in those aspects of the game. The Longhorns scored 40 points in the paint and dominated the rebounding battle on the way to handing MU a 17-point loss.
Mizzou getting back on track likely also means regaining control of the paint. That’s also something that will be easier said than done, as the Commodores’ forward-centric lineup over the last five games has done a fairly good job of keeping pace with opposing teams down low and on the boards. In order for the Tigers to take care of business in the paint, they’ll also need to accomplish goal number two:
Keep Shawn Phillips Jr. out of foul trouble
Phillips is far from the only reason for Mizzou’s recent three-game winning streak, but his stretch of improved play has coincided with better performance from the team as a whole. He had arguably his best game of the season against Texas A&M, recording 12 points and eight rebounds, including four offensive boards. Phillips also made a pair of crucial plays in the final 30 seconds, slamming home the alley-oop pass from Mark Mitchell to put MU ahead and coming up with a massive defensive stop in the final seconds to secure the win.
His greater importance to the team also shows up during his absences from the court. MU led South Carolina 21-8 when Phillips picked up his second foul halfway through the first and sat for most of the final 10 minutes before the half; the Tigers were outscored by nine points during that stretch and led by just four at halftime. His absence was even more noticeable against Texas when he played 18 minutes (again due to foul trouble), forcing head coach Dennis Gates to put in Nicholas Randall and Trent Burns for a combined 12 minutes of action.
The pair of inexperienced forwards was simply overmatched against the big men of UT, a major contributor to the Longhorns’ advantage in the paint. Mizzou lacks the depth required to weather Phillips’ absence for more than a few minutes at a time, especially against a team like Vanderbilt that has multiple skilled and experienced forwards in the lineup.
Outperform expectations on the perimeter
MU is expected to operate at a heavy disadvantage on the perimeter Wednesday. The Commodores have been one of the SEC’s best shooting teams from beyond the arc at 36.1 percent and also had a shutdown defense from deep this season, holding opposing teams to just a 29.6 percent mark from three-point range. The Tigers, meanwhile, rank at the very bottom of the conference in opposing three-point field goal percentage.
Nobody anticipates Mizzou out-shooting Vandy from beyond the arc. But MU needs to keep the margins close enough on the perimeter to gain ground in the areas where it can take the advantage (like the ones mentioned above). Three-point shooting and perimeter defense are unlikely to win the game for the Tigers. But those areas can certainly lose the game for them.
Game Prediction
My prediction: Vanderbilt 85 – Mizzou 80
If there’s one thing Mizzou has shown consistently all season, it’s inconsistency. The Tigers have earned upset wins against some of the conference’s top teams, including a victory over Florida that looks more impressive each week. They’ve also come out flat against teams they were expected to beat and in moments where they had both momentum and an opportunity to fundamentally change the outlook of their season.
On paper, MU matches up unfavorably with the Commodores. Vanderbilt’s strengths (three-point shooting and turnover creation) line up well with Mizzou’s weaknesses. That’s also what I said entering the Texas A&M game, when I predicted an 11-point loss and the Tigers instead pulled off one of their most important wins of the season.
So, what does this all mean? Expect the unexpected. Embrace the chaos. Mizzou definitely has a chance to pull off the upset over its visitors Wednesday, but that doesn’t mean it’s likely, either. In the end, I’ll ride with the team on the hot streak and take the Commodores in a close one. We’ll see if the Dennis Gates and the Tigers can prove me wrong again.
