If the Cardinals want to compete next season, it would be wise to shore up their positions of weakness. The bullpen is a clear weakness, but it’s also the part of the team I would probably focus on last personally. An argument for the best closer in baseball is Bryan Baker of the Tampa Bay Rays, a 31-year-old with 3 career saves entering this season. Baker was drafted by the Rockies, traded as the player to be named later in a package for a year and a month of Seung Hwan Oh, selected off waivers
by the Orioles a few years later, and finally traded for a draft pick last deadline. Meanwhile, Edwin Diaz got paid $17 million to allow nearly a run per inning in his 21 appearances for the Dodgers. Neither of these are unusual stories for relievers.
So most of my offseason talk will be focused on finding someone for either third base, center field, or starting pitcher. There is a very big, unfortunate issue with this however: the free agent market at those positions kind of suck. It’s why my very first free agent profile was focused on someone who has barely played 3B (JP Crawford). Any true 3B upgrade will either have to come via trade or someone at a different position. Which brings me to today’s post.
In theory, anybody who plays second base can play third base. And while that is literally true, the two positions require different strengths so they are likely not going provide the same quality of defense. But the truth of the matter is that the 2B market is significantly stronger than the 3B market. At the very least entertaining the better second basemen on the market is worth exploring to improve 3B. You could also move JJ Wetherholt to 3B, but I am opposed to that, so I would make it clear to these free agents that they would have to play 3B. It’d be an easier argument because Wetherholt is indeed better defensively than every other 2B. So if for no other reason than to eliminate them as real targets, let’s look at the 2B who might make sense at 3B.
Brandon Lowe
2026 Stats: .260/.331/.493, 9.5 BB%, 28.8 K%, .233 ISO, .319 BABIP, 121 wRC+, 4.9 fWAR
Expected Deal: 4 years, $70 million
The Tampa Bay Rays are one win away from the World Series. They also, at least as of now, made an extremely bad trade involving Brandon Lowe. They traded one season of Lowe, getting paid $11.5 million, 5 seasons of Mason Montgomery (2.2 fWAR out of the bullpen), and Jake Magnum (who isn’t very good) for 25-year-old Jacob Melton (who missed most of 2026 to injury and never saw the majors) and Anderson Brito, a mediocre prospect who only pitched in 8 games in 2026 at a level he had already pitched before (and he was worse at that level in 2026).
With all that said, Brandon Lowe has more warning signs than a radiation plant. He will most likely receive a qualified offer, and that is not a good start. In his previous four seasons prior to 2026, he averaged under 2 WAR per season. He was randomly great at defense after a career of not being very good defensively. The first year of his deal will be at 32-years-old. And he has never played an inning of 3B at pro ball. Also his arm is 11th percentile according to Statcast, though 2B hold back more than 3B as we will soon see.
The arm is the big one because frankly, a career of being not great defensively is actually a very good argument for someone to move to 3B. But I wanted to take a one-year game on Crawford defensively, and you would likely be taking a 3-4 year gamble on Lowe (his QO could very much hurt his market to an extreme degree though). On the positive side, his power wouldn’t be that terribly affected by Busch. He hit 35 homers for the Pirates. It would have been 32 at Busch.
But unfortunately, I have even more warning signs. For as good of a season as he had, there are so many reasons to not sign this guy. My last warning sign is that his offense looked to be on the luckier side. He had his highest K% since 2019 and he had his highest BABIP also since 2019. That’s not a great combo. His xwOBA was .331, which was his lowest since 2022 in his injury-shortened season. His actual wOBA was .354.
I’m going to be completely honest. I think I would avoid Lowe even if the Cardinals had a hole at 2B. A 32-year-old who probably didn’t actually get better last season but saw a career year saddled with a QO? And we have to move him to 3B, a position he hasn’t played professionally, and he has a weak arm?
Conclusion: Avoid
Luis Arraez
2026: .310/.345/.419, 5.2 BB%, 4.3 K%, .109 ISO, .311 BABIP, 110 wRC+, 4.1 fWAR
Expected Contract: I don’t think I can even guess, I have no idea
The great big mystery of Arraez is how does the league value Arraez? Coming off a 0.9 fWAR season, Arraez signed for $1 year, $12 million. That is honestly more than most 0.9 WAR players will get, maybe all of them, so I’m not necessarily taking it as a given that the league doesn’t value Arraez like anti-stats people like to say. He will be 30-years-old and will likely get a multi-year deal.
With that said, his offense did not really get that much better, he was a significantly better player because he was suddenly great at defense. I have not looked into why, but unlike Lowe who was generally below average before 2026, Arraez was straight up awful defensively. Even with genuine improvements, it’s very hard to buy into his 2026 level of defense. You just don’t really see that kind of jump defensively, ever, and if it was hitting that did it, everyone would be similarly skeptical. When a sudden jump happens, you don’t assume the same level, you go somewhere in between where he used to be and his career year.
Arraez has played 3B, although very little, and like 2B and like 1B, he was awful defensively. I don’t think his arm is an issue. It’s 25th percentile, but I think he has more in the tank. When he last played significant innings at 3B, he threw it four miles per hour harder at 3B than when he played at 2B. And his arm at 2B this past season was very similar to how hard he threw at 2B in the year he also played 3B. He was actually dead average the year he played 400 innings at 3B, for some reason he was -7 OAA in 40 innings the very next season and nobody’s tried him at 3B since.
His bat is more reliable, although not near as good as the batting average people think. He doesn’t walk and he has no power, so he’s an above average hitter, but definitely not elite. He also hits into a lot of double plays. He hit into 15 double plays last season and has averaged just about that in the last four seasons. He somehow hit into 18 double plays when he batted .354.
As I said in the beginning, I don’t really know how the league values him. My interest in him is entirely dependent on his next contract. Is he valued like an All-Star, because I’d definitely avoid that contract. Like the 1 WAR player he was in 2024 and 2025? That means short-term and that’s more interesting.
Conclusion: Probably not
Jazz Chisholm
2026: .231/.321/.399, 10.5 BB%, 29.5 K%, .168 ISO, .301 BABIP, 98 wRC+, 3.5 fWAR
Expected Contract: 4 years, $80 million
Chisholm is kind of the opposite of our first two choices. His 2026 season stats are him coming off a down season and he’s very likely good on defense, despite his blunders. His numbers at 3B are a bit of a mixed bag – he was very good in 2024 and not good in 2025, and then the Yankees stopped playing him at 3B. He’s similar to Arraez in that he threw it harder at 3B than he does at 2B and most of his 9th percentile arm is related to that fact. He threw it 85.6 mph at 3B last year, 78.5 mph at 2B. So he must be really having his fair share of lobbing it over at 2B. It’s not really possible to lob it over at 3B (despite it looking like that’s what Matt Carpenter did).
We also saw in the 2026 playoffs that he likes to play hero ball and will likely continue to do so given his postgame comments, and I can see how that could potentially affect you more at 3B than 2B when you simply have more opportunities to make errors from trying to land on a top ten list. Couple that with the high standard he sets at 2B and the 3B version of Chisholm is probably a worse player than the 2B version.
On top of that, he had a down year with the bat. His xwOBA was a career low .294 and his 98 wRC+ was only a little bit better than his career low his rookie season. His power took a huge dip despite the bandbox he got to play in. Like his offensive stats are concerning.
Of course he’ll be 29 and the reporting is indicating he will not receive a qualified offer. They didn’t actually want Trent Grisham and he accepted, and I don’t think they want to repeat that risk. And Chisholm is firmly in his prime years so a bounceback offensively wouldn’t be the craziest thing. Chisholm would be a bit of a swing and it doesn’t seem like he’d be a fan favorite, but at least by value…. I mean he makes sense.
Conclusion: If you can get him for a good deal, frankly, I might take that swing
Gleyber Torres
2026: .260/.364/.363, 13.6 BB%, 19.3 K%, .103 ISO, .314 BABIP, 109 wRC+, 1 fWAR
Expected Contract: 3 years, $50 million
Torres is an interesting case, because he has not played 3B since 2018 and he has a grand total of less than 200 innings there in his entire pro career. But he’s also a former SS who has spent his fair share of time on the left side of the infield. Of course, he was bad defensively there and had to move to 2B. He has also been bad there. It’s clear range is not his thing which means there’s some theoretical upside to him defensively at 3B. Like he sets a low enough standard at 2B that I’m not real sure his defense would actually be worse at 3B. And like the others, once he moved from SS to 2B, his arm strength magically got weak. So I feel like his arm wouldn’t be an issue.
He also will 100 percent not have the qualified offer saddled on him. He already accepted it for the 2026 season and can’t get it again. He’ll be 30. He is fairly consistent as an above average hitter. And his batting profile is walk-heavy, not a ton of strikeouts, not reliant on power at all, so a move to Busch shouldn’t really hurt him. I’d actually be very curious on what kind of deal he would get, coming off a down year.
Conclusion: I’d be very tempted if less than my proposed contract
I could talk myself into Jazz Chisholm or Gleybar Torres. I assume the Cardinals have a much better way of figuring out how each player’s defense would translate at 3B. It’s entirely possible them at 3B is just a nonstarter. Kind of an important part of this whole process. So the estimates would have to work out, the contract would have to work out, they’d have to be willing to play 3B, I wouldn’t say any of these are likely.
