It did not look good here.
The way the Phillies had played this week, getting into the playoffs was something of a stretch, let alone even winning any games that they would have played in. Yet here we are, once again in a playoff series in which they will be an underdog by most prognosticators, yet having a talent that might actually be able to get it done.
You have to squint to look at it, but there are reasons they can do some damage in these playoffs. Here are at least three reasons why they can actually
win the World Series.
The starting rotation can carry them
It doesn’t take me telling you that the strength of this team is their starting rotation. Even after having burned Zack Wheeler to make the playoffs, they still have two elite starters in Jesus Luzardo and Cristopher Sanchez, depending on how they are deployed. That at least gives them a fighting chance against the Braves in any game. Now, the issue is that Luzardo is at least somewhat compromised to begin these playoffs. His shoulder looked good during Sunday’s playoff clincher, even though it was only five pitches and he likely had a bit of an adrenaline boost to help, but being a tic above average is at least hopeful. The question will be how long he can go in starts without having thrown to hitters after nearly three weeks off.
The rest of the rotation is some of the best the game has to offer. Sanchez might finish second in the Cy Young vote for the second year in a row and even if he hasn’t thrown as well as we have been accustomed to of late, he’s still one of the top five best starters in the game today. Wheeler showed on Sunday why he is still one of those top five as well, giving the Phillies exactly what they needed in a do or die game. Aaron Nola’s resurgence since late Jule (2.82 ERA in 12 games since 7/28) means that if they are able to get to the Division Series, they won’t have to worry about when to pull the plug on his starts and hope he can get somewhere between 9 and 12 outs in a start.
And, one of the best things about them – they can actually go a decent amount of innings in a start! Where a lot of teams are hoping their starters are able to get them into a fifth inning, the Phillies should at least expect five, maybe even six, out of whoever opens the game for them. That means less time for the middle part of the bullpen, which has been, shall we say, an issue.
They should be able to depend on the quartet of them.
The stars in the lineup get hot
The last few weeks of baseball, the stars on the Phillies were struggling. Little power was coming from Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, Trea Turner continued swinging at any baseball thrown from sixty feet, six inches away regardless of where it was at, J.T. Realmuto looked like a mere shell of a baseball player and the less said about Brandon Marsh, the better.
Sunday changed a lot of that. The top two in the lineups went 4 for 9 with two runs scored and two RBI, Harper hit a laser beam of a home run and Realmuto may have had the biggest hit of all.
And I didn’t even mention Bryson Stott going 3 for 3 on the day!
These are the types of games that can jumpstart a lineup that badly needed something to help them get going. This offense has been, currently is and will be for the foreseeable future be dependent on how well the stars perform. You can point to someone like Alec Bohm getting hot or Stott doing well or even a surprise performance from Bryan de la Cruz as an X-factor for the bats, but the fulcrum will always be Harper, Schwarber and Turner. If they are hot, they can carry this team far. Past playoff history suggests that doing that will be difficult to do as they have not done well as a group in the past two rounds they have played in, but this is another new chances to re-write the narrative that will permeate discussion about the Phillies and their offense.
Jesus Luzardo and/or Andrew Painter stabilize the bullpen enough
Now that Luzardo is probably going back into the rotation for the duration of the playoffs, his being available out of the bullpen is likely off the table. There is always the possibility that he is used in a throw day like he was last year against the Dodgers, something he was really good at. However, the bullpen is probably where Andrew Painter will spend his playoff time.
And that might be enough.
No, Painter hasn’t really excelled in the first innings this year. An 8.22 ERA with hitters having a .300/.402/.489 in the first inning of his starts is proof of that. Yet his last start against a good Brewers lineup at least offered a glimmer of hope that he can do it. In that inning, he struck out three of the four hitters he faced, sitting 96-97 with his fastball and showing a changeup that was otherworldly. It’s definitely possible that he is able to find succcess in shorter bursts, maybe even finding a bit more on his fastball. He has looked much better since returning from the minor league sojourn he was on and with the possibility that he plays a significant role in the playoffs, that faith could be rewarded.
Plus, who would you rather see in a tight spot in the playoffs – Painter or Chase Shugart?
