The 9-seeded Iowa Hawkeyes (23-12, 10-10) are set to take on the 4-seeded Nebraska Cornhuskers (28-6, 15-5) in Houston, TX for the first slot in the Elite 8. After the ups and downs of college basketball, it’s genuinely hilarious and a little bit frustrating for the biggest basketball game either of these programs have played in a good long while to take place against each other.
For both teams, it’s been a storybook season – the Huskers rode the nation’s longest winning streak after winning The Crown
postseason tournament last year to a top 10 ranking before reality caught up to them. Their 9-0 conference start was stifled by Michigan, which kicked off a 2-4 run. They rebounded in the regular season to finish 15-5 but fell after the double bye in their first game of the conference tournament to eventual champion Purdue. They’re here after smoking Troy for their first NCAA Tournament win and followed it up with their own game-winner on a last second field goal against Vanderbilt.
The Hawks “book” was one we had seen before… until the twist at the end. Iowa ran out of gas in the conference season and finished 10-10 after an 2-6 finish. They split their games in the conference tournament. Coming into March Madness, this definitely had a “rerun” quality to it. 8/9 game before taking on a behemoth. See you next year? Yet the Hawks did the unthinkable by taking it right to SEC champion Florida and winning on an Alvaro Folgueiras 3-pointer. Wow.
So yeah, maybe in different circumstances, there would be a “happy to be here” mentality from both teams experiencing things which haven’t happened in a long time…or ever. But now that we’re here, the basest instincts take hold: WE HAVE TO WIN. Both sides are thinking it and whomever comes out on top will remind the other fanbase for years and years about what happened.
Can Iowa’s impressive finishing in the tournament carry over against a conference foe?
One area the Hawks had a huge advantage heading into matchups against Clemson & Florida was uncertainty. Neither opponent really knew what they were getting in the Hawkeyes: an undersized bunch who’s been through the wringer of the Big Ten and lived to tell the tale. Against Florida, they were able to spread them out, get looks at the cup, and force them into foul trouble. The Hawks were 70% from 2 despite Florida’s size & 50% vs Clemson. Both were above their averages, but the difference with Florida was stark as they allowed just 45% from 2.
If there’s a weakness in Nebraska’s defense, it’s 2-point defense. They allow 50.3% from inside the arc which rates 108th according to KenPom. But they counteract that by not allowing that many shots from 2. The way they use help to pack the paint has opponents kicking out and shooting 50.0% of their shots from 3, one of the highest in the country. From there, Nebraska uses excellent guard & wing length to contest shots and limit opponents to just 30.1% from 3.
Iowa improved shooting the ball from matchup 1 in Carver-Hawkeye to the return trip in Lincoln:
In game 1, Iowa was able to get into the lane more but struggled with efficiency everywhere. The Hawks were better from deep despite shooting more in line with how Nebraska would prefer them to shoot. If Iowa can continue hammering the lane for layup attempts, they’ll have to manage 6’10” Berke Buyuktuncel and his 5.8% block rate which ranks in the top 150 nationally. However, he’s got just 2 in the last 5 games which may mean there’s a better chance for Iowa to have success there.
Do the Hawkeyes prevent the Pryce Sandfort heater?
The former Hawk has been awesome through two games in Oklahoma City Lincoln South. He’s 10/18 from deep, which includes a stretch where he turned the Troy game into a laugher during the first half, scoring 15 points on 5/6 shooting from deep in about 6 minutes of game play. There will be stretches, including in the return trip at Nebraska, where Fred Hoiberg dials up 3 or 4 plays for him in quick succession, forcing teams to navigate tons of baseline screens for an open look by him or a roller at the rim. His gravity is INSANE.
But Iowa kept him relatively on the rails during the regular season with 4/13 shooting from deep and 8/20 overall. That’s about as good as you can ask for there.
Nebraska is relentless from deep though, just like they force opponents to take a ton of 3s, that is their preferred offense. The gravity of Sandfort opens up so much for them along the perimeter and with 4 other players who shoot 34% or more from deep, anybody can catch fire (including Cale Jacobsen who had a career high 15 points).
If the Hawks can hold off the Huskers barrage of 3-point shooting, it will put into focus two things: rim protection and rebounding. Nebraska is good from 2 with all the shooters they have spacing the floor. They make 58.1% of their shots from 2 with 71% of them tallied as layups or dunks according to Bart Torvik. That is Iowa’s weakness.
For rebounding, if the 3s are missing then Nebraska may have to adjust their standard in terms of crashing the glass. They rank 311th in the country with a 26.4% offensive rebounding rate. In their close win against Vandy, they did not zag away from this strategy and gathered just 20.8% of their misses though it helps to make 56% of your shots. In both games against Nebraska, the Hawks held them to rates of 16.7% and 7.4%.
Iowa/Nebraska in a win or go home setting. Nebraska has been here before, with Iowa ending their football season twice when they had chances to go to bowl games (2023 & 2019).
Can the Hawks do the same here?
