The Sixers sit at 41-34 with 7 games left on the schedule, which coincidentally puts them smack in the middle of one of the most chaotic playoff races the Eastern Conference has seen in years.
These standings are shifting every single night, and honestly, keeping up with every tiebreaker, box score and late-game collapse feels like a part-time job nobody applied for. So let’s cut through the noise. Where are the Sixers right now, who’s standing in their way, and what does the playoff picture actually
look like as we head down the stretch?
To start, let’s get a clear picture of the standings. We’ll focus on the 5 through 10 range, since that’s exactly where the Sixers are sitting and where they’ll likely finish.
- Toronto Raptors 42-32
- Atlanta Hawks 43-33
(play-in)
- Philadelphia 76ers 41-34
- Orlando Magic 39-35
- Miami Heat 40-36
- Charlotte Hornets 39-36
As things stand, the Sixers are on the outside looking in for a guaranteed playoff seed. That said, there’s still a real chance they can climb up — a loss or two from the right team can completely flip the playoff and play-in picture overnight. So let’s go team by team, break down the tiebreakers, and figure out the likelihood of the Sixers catching up to, or staying ahead of, each one.
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are the current leaders of this group and have been playing some of their best basketball lately, most recently dismantling the Orlando Magic while holding their grip on the 5 seed. As of this writing, Toronto sits 1.5 games ahead of Philadelphia and owns the 10th easiest remaining schedule, with matchups against the Pistons, Celtics, Knicks, Heat (twice), Nets, Kings and Grizzlies.
The season series ended in a 2-2 tie, so the tiebreaker defaults to division record. The Sixers are 9-7 in the Atlantic while the Raptors are a rough 4-10, meaning Philadelphia would win the tiebreaker if the two teams finish level. Worth noting, two of Toronto’s three “easy” remaining games come right away, before a brutal closing stretch of Celtics, Heat twice and Knicks to close out four of their final five.
Catching the Raptors in the short term seems unlikely, but that April 5-10 stretch will go a long way in determining whether Toronto stays out of the play-in altogether. If they slip against one of the tanking opponents early, the margin for error gets razor thin once you factor in the tiebreaker working in Philly’s favor.
Atlanta Hawks
CA-CAWWWWW. The Hawks have been an absolute problem lately, winning 16 of their last 18 to firmly plant themselves at the 6 seed. Unlike Toronto, Atlanta is staring down one of the tougher remaining schedules in this group, ranked 8th hardest, with games against the Knicks, Cavaliers twice, Magic and Heat. Their only breather on paper is a date with the Brooklyn Nets.
Here’s where it gets tricky for the Sixers: Atlanta outright owns the tiebreaker over Philadelphia, which effectively turns their 1.5 game lead into something closer to a 2.5 game lead in practice. The Sixers wouldn’t just need to match the Hawks, they’d need to pass them.
Atlanta tips off against the Magic tomorrow before getting the Nets on Friday, but from there it’s a gauntlet of playoff-caliber opponents with the Heat sprinkled in for good measure. The tiebreaker makes it hard to envision the Sixers leaping Atlanta, though that schedule could certainly hand the Hawks a few losses down the stretch.
Orlando Magic
The Magic, yet again, have had a turbulent season marked by questionable star play and their best players missing lengthy stretches at a time. It’s a big reason why they find themselves in the 8 seed. Their remaining schedule is slightly tougher than Philadelphia’s, with games against the Pistons, Celtics, Timberwolves, Hawks, Suns, Mavericks, Pelicans and Bulls.
What makes Orlando’s schedule interesting is the structure of it. They alternate two home games, two away, two home and two away to close things out. Of those eight games, five come against playoff teams, two against tanking squads and one against the New Orleans Pelicans, a team that probably should be tanking but simply can’t due to an outgoing unprotected pick.
The good news for Philly is that the Sixers own the tiebreaker over Orlando, winning the season series 2-1. The Magic currently sit a game and a half back, meaning they’d need to not only make up that ground but actually outpace the Sixers’ remaining record to leapfrog them. Unless Orlando wins at least three of those games against legitimate competition, it’s hard to see them pulling it off. Not impossible, but they’d have to earn it.
Miami Heat
Out of every team sitting below the Sixers, the Heat are the ones to watch. Thanks to owning the tiebreaker over Philadelphia, Miami doesn’t need to outplay the Sixers, they just need to match their record. And when you look at what’s left on their schedule, that’s a very realistic ask. Despite sitting 1.5 games back on paper, the tiebreaker makes this feel much closer to a half game lead in reality.
The Heat’s remaining schedule features the Celtics, Raptors twice, Hawks and Wizards twice, which checks in as the 6th easiest remaining slate in the league. Barring the Wizards deciding they’ve had enough disrespect after the whole Bam 83-point situation (did you catch that game? The NBC broadcast mentioned it once or twice, or like 20 times, very low key), you’re looking at maybe two or three losses for Miami at the absolute most.
That tiebreaker is massive. It puts the Heat firmly in control of their own destiny, and if the Sixers drop even one unexpected game, the math shifts in a hurry. Keep a close eye on Miami over the next week or two, and pay especially close attention to those two Raptors games. They’ll have major implications not just for the Heat, but for just about everyone in this conversation.
Charlotte Hornets
The Sixers took care of the Hornets a few nights ago in a game that went down to the wire, and out of every team in this group, Charlotte is the least likely candidate to climb out of the play-in. They sit two games behind Philadelphia with the ninth hardest remaining schedule.
The Hornets will face the Pistons, Celtics, Knicks, Timberwolves, Suns, Pacers and Nets. Two of those are against tanking teams, with five against playoff-caliber opponents. That said, it’s worth noting that some of the higher seeds like the Celtics or Pistons may start load managing their guys down the stretch to keep them fresh, which could make a game or two more winnable than it looks on paper.
There isn’t a ton to say about the Hornets right now, but don’t sleep on them entirely. Since the calendar flipped they’ve been one of the better teams on both ends of the floor, and they could become a real problem if the Sixers end up in the play-in. Losing the first play-in game and then having to face Charlotte to keep the season alive would not be a fun situation. For now they can stay on the back burner, but depending on how things shake out, the Hornets could end up being a much bigger part of this story than anyone expects.
Where Will the Sixers End Up?
Despite dropping a pretty important game to Miami, the Sixers are still within striking distance of a guaranteed playoff seed. The Heat are right on their heels though, and they might not be the only ones closing in.
Philadelphia’s remaining schedule is fairly middle of the road, with games against the Wizards, Timberwolves, Pistons, Spurs, Rockets, Pacers and Bucks to close out the year. There are some recognizable names on there, but load management from teams like Detroit or San Antonio could make a few of those games more manageable than they look. It’s also worth noting the final two games against the Pacers and Bucks are against tanking squads, which gives the Sixers the luxury of resting guys heading into the postseason if they’ve already locked something up or their playoff fate is sealed.
Tiebreaker-wise, the Sixers are in decent shape across the board. They’ll need to win some tough games to keep the postseason dream alive, but the good news is they now have the reinforcements to do it.
Most projections peg Philadelphia as the most likely 7 seed, which would put them in the play-in on their own home court. But a handful of games involving the teams around them could swing things in a number of directions. Here are the ones worth circling:
4/1 – Hawks @ Magic
4/7 – Heat @ Raptors
4/9 – Heat @ Raptors
4/12 – Hawks @ Heat
Beyond the Sixers’ own results, these four games could end up being the deciding factor in how the whole picture shakes out. It’s an uphill climb, but depending on how the cards fall, Philly could come out of this in a pretty good spot. Time will tell, as things are likely to come down to the literal wire.
