There are a lot of question marks throughout the Washington Nationals roster, but the most uncertainty lies in the teams starting rotation. This is a stark contrast to last offseason where the rotation felt
relatively settled after a few breakout performers in 2024. However, after regression and potential trades, it is anyone’s guess as to what the Nats rotation will look like.
Cade Cavalli is the only player who I can confidently say will be part of the rotation assuming health. The fact that he is the only nailed on starter is pretty crazy after all the injury problems he has had to deal with. His high octane stuff and solid performance down the stretch gives him a spot though.
After him, there are way more questions than answers. The first question is whether the Nationals will trade their ace MacKenzie Gore. With only two years of team control, questions linger about whether the 26 year old fits the team’s timeline. He is also a Scott Boras client, meaning he is likely to test the market rather than sign an extension. Reports have indicated that the Nationals are more than willing to move him.
If Gore stays around, he would obviously be part of the rotation. I think he is pretty likely to be dealt though. There has been so much smoke around his name for months now. At a certain point, there is likely to be a fire and I think that is coming this offseason.
That means there are four open rotation spots to fill. There are plenty of internal names, and they will be in the mix. Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin, Andrew Alvarez and Brad Lord all made a lot of starts for the team. Parker and Irvin struggled mightily though and Lord was better out of the bullpen. Alvarez looked good in his five starts, but he is far from a proven commodity.
There are also the guys coming back from injury. He has been out of the spotlight for a couple years now, but let’s not forget about Josiah Gray. Sure, he has his flaws, but the last time he threw a full season, he was an All-Star and had a sub-4 ERA. In an article today, Spencer Nusbaum of the Washington Post said that Gray’s rotation spot is probably the most secure of any of the returners besides Cavalli.
Gray still has to prove he is fully healthy. He made a few rehab starts at the end of the season where his velocity was down. The results were decent, but he needs to show that his stuff is all the way back. As he gets further removed from his surgery, that velocity should continue to climb. While Gray should be ready to go to start next season, the status of Trevor Williams and DJ Herz is less certain.
Even with all of these names, the Nats still need help from outside the organization. Paul Toboni seems to realize this. While he gave his usual political answers, he did say that the Nationals were interested in starting pitching. He did not specify how many starters he was looking for but made it clear the Nats are in the market for starting pitching.
Based on recent activity and where the Nats are in their team building process, I would not expect them to be looking at the top of the market. However, a couple middle of the market free agents and potential fliers feel likely. Dustin May is a name I would keep in the back of your mind. If they want to go for a bigger fish, Blake Butera’s old college teammate Michael King is on the market.
The Nats could also target pitching on the trade market. I could see Toboni looking to target pitching in a Gore trade. While the pitchers the Nats would receive provide less certainty than Gore, they will be further away from free agency and fit the team’s timeline.
They could also look to move one of their many outfielders for pitching. Unless they shock everyone and trade one of Crews, Wood or Lile, the returns would not be anything crazy. However, I think you can flip someone like Jacob Young for an arm with some upside. There are plenty of teams who have solid arms that are just unable to break into deeper rotations.
There are plenty of ways to find pitching and Paul Toboni will explore all avenues. Frankly, it is tough to downgrade on what the Nats were rolling out last season. Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker had the two highest ERA’s of any qualified starter. A smart guy like Paul Toboni should be able to find upgrades on that sort of production.
I am very curious to see what this rotation ends up looking like. Will one of the internal guys take a big step with improved player development? Can Toboni find quality starters on the margins and will the Nats spend big on pitching? These are all questions that will be answered this offseason.
