Before the season started, Inside NU staffers got together to rank what they thought would be the most difficult games on Northwestern’s schedule. Of the 12 games ranked, the top seven were all seen as forgone
losses. The writers only saw Northwestern as the favorites in three total games.
Which game did the writers choose, nearly unanimously, as the hardest for Northwestern to win? Penn State, the team Northwestern beat on the road Saturday.
Obviously, circumstances have changed slightly since that article was written. Penn State wasn’t even ranked on Saturday and was coming off a loss to a winless UCLA team the week before. That doesn’t change the fact that this is a landmark win.
The question now becomes, “Where does Northwestern go from here?” The main fear going forward should be overreacting. It would be easy for this team to rest on its laurels after such a win and for the fans to become drunk on hope. But there hasn’t been an opportunity to truly be this hopeful about Northwestern football for a while now.
Where are we this Wednesday? Uncharted territory.
For the Dreamers
Saturday was, by a pretty large margin, Northwestern football’s biggest win since its 14-7 victory over Utah in the 2023 Las Vegas Bowl. 20.5-point underdogs aren’t supposed to win in Happy Valley. A team with serious national title aspirations in the preseason is not supposed to lose to the Wildcats at home, and this was never supposed to be how James Franklin left Penn State.
So what does it say about Northwestern that they were able to take down the AP No. 2 from the preseason? For one, it verifies the style of play that the ’Cats have been playing up until this point. Being able to run the ball against ULM or a broken UCLA team isn’t the same as being able to run the ball against a team as talented as the Nittany Lions. The Wildcats offense is not only much improved from Week One, it might be objectively good. Not many teams will be tougher to move the ball against than Penn State, and Northwestern was able to do so.
In August the Wildcats’ expected win total on the season sat at four. Six weeks in and they’ve already hit that. The goalposts for what classifies a “successful” season have moved, and thus, the ‘Cats should look at the rest of their schedule much differently. Games that might have been seen as unwinnable ought to be looked at with a little more optimism.
If Northwestern can take down the Nittany Lions, who’s to say they can’t beat Michigan at Wrigley? The passing game under Bryce Underwood isn’t fully developed, and Josh Fussell and the rest of the secondary will be looking to take advantage of Underwood’s inexperience. Is there a disparity in talent between the two teams? Sure, but the same was true Saturday, and look at what happened. The Wildcats shouldn’t look at themselves as hapless underdogs for the rest of the season.
Saturday showed that Northwestern is not only capable of competing with extremely talented programs, but beating them. Saturday served as a turning point for the season. Four or five wins won’t cut it anymore. A winning record shouldn’t just be a lofty aspiration, it should be the new expectation.
Reeling in the Optimism
Northwestern fans have had time to revel in victory for the better part of three days now. Yes, the win was impressive, and it’s given the fanbase something it hasn’t had in a while: genuine optimism.
But looking forward, there are a few things to consider. Penn State’s offense has been underperforming all season. It is very possible that its lackluster performance Saturday was more due to its own flaws than Northwestern’s stellar play.
Not every team on Northwestern’s schedule is struggling from the same problems. USC, Nebraska and Illinois all have elite passing offenses that will be difficult tests for this secondary. Northwestern has had trouble defending the run all season, so what happens when Michigan comes to Wrigley Field? Beating Penn State does not make this team flawless, and there are definitely still problems.
The real impact of the victory over Penn State is the type of conversations it allows NU to have for the rest of the season. It wouldn’t have been worth it to ask, “How will Northwestern’s run defense handle Michigan’s ground attack?” or, “Can Northwestern’s new-look passing offense take advantage of USC’s weak defense?” Everyone would have assumed the answer was no and moved on. There was no reason for anyone to think anything differently.
In the wake of Saturday’s win, those questions have all of a sudden become worth asking.
The Conclusion
Saturday really serves as a reason to justify a number of different opinions. It was a big reason for Penn State’s decision that Franklin needed to go. It’s a reason for some fans to naively believe NU will end the season with eight or nine wins, if they wish to think that way. It’s a reason for the coaching staff to believe what they’ve been installing in the last few practices has truly been working, if they wish to think that way.
The correct opinion, as is usually the case, lies somewhere between the under and overreactions. Truths will reveal themselves as the season goes on, but there’s a lot of thinking, both wishful and pessimistic, to be done in the meantime.
