In resetting the bullpen for 2027, there is one lefty that might represent a reasonable snag for the Tampa Bay Rays.
Nick Lodolo’s recent injuries and middling results could create a buying opportunity, particularly if the Reds aren’t convinced he has another level to reach. His projected $5.7 million salary for 2027 is affordable enough for the Rays to take a chance on a pitcher who already has a major-league track record, but the Reds’ willingness to move him – and the prospect cost – would determine
whether he is a realistic target.
There are a few areas of Lodolo’s arsenal that could benefit from some adjustments, but he already does several things really well. The first is his unique, low-slot delivery from the left side. He further adds to this deception by throwing the ball across his body with a long arm action.
Another strength of Lodolo is the consistency of his pitch locations. This is measured by something I call “command deltas.” His location consistency of most of his pitches has been comfortably above-average throughout his career:
Lodolo’s breaking ball showed roughly average location consistency in previous seasons, but that consistency declined in 2026. He experimented with a new grip in July, around the same time the location data began to deteriorate. The timing raises the possibility that he hasn’t fully developed a feel for the new shape, although the available data can’t establish whether the grip change is responsible.
If the new shape isn’t producing a meaningful improvement in movement or results, reverting to the previous grip would be worth considering. Here’s Lodolo’s heat map for his breaking ball from March through June of this year:
And then July through the end of the year:
Lodolo’s changeup has limited velocity and VAA separation from his fastballs, potentially limiting its ability to disrupt hitters’ timing and generate swings and misses.
An alternative grip could help him create a more distinct offering, though any change would need to be evaluated by its resulting movement, location, and performance. Lodolo currently employs a more traditional offspeed grip that looks similar to a circle-change:
Lodolo could experiment with alternative changeup grips, including a spiked or split grip, to see whether he can create greater movement and separation from his fastballs. His current offspeed pitch has about six mph of velocity separation, so there may be an opportunity to develop a more distinct offering. Whether a new grip produces better depth, more velocity separation, or improved swing-and-miss would need to be evaluated through testing.
Regardless, Lodolo’s release traits give him a foundation for continuing to attack left-handed hitters with his fastball and breaking ball.
Adding some changeups could provide a different speed and movement profile, giving hitters another look without requiring a wholesale change to his existing approach. It would also fit with the Rays’ recent interest in using offspeed pitches against same-handed hitters.
His approach against righties is a little too fastball-heavy. He throws a fastball roughly 50% of the time against right-handed hitters, split between his four-seamer (30%) and two-seamer (20%). Against right-handed hitters, Lodolo’s four-seamer has substantially outperformed his two-seamer: it has allowed a .300 wOBA and generated a 26.4% whiff rate, compared with a .442 wOBA and 14.4% whiff rate on his two-seamer. Shifting more of his fastball usage toward the four-seamer looks like his clearest opportunity for improvement. His two-seamer could still be thrown front-door to righties early in counts when they’re less likely to swing, and an adjustment in position on the rubber could create a difficult angle on those pitches to make them more effective even if hitters do swing.
Nick Lodolo is already a good major-league pitcher, with distinctive release traits and a foundation of consistent pitch location. For the Rays, he could be an affordable trade target with several plausible avenues for improvement:
- Evaluate whether his new breaking-ball grip offers enough movement or performance gains to justify the decline in location consistency, and consider returning to his previous grip if it doesn’t.
- Experiment with alternative changeup grips to create more separation from his fastballs, judging any changes by their movement, command, and ability to generate swings and misses.
- Introduce the changeup more often against left-handed hitters as a secondary look, and test whether greater usage against righties can generate more chase and whiffs.
- Against righties, shift fastball usage toward the more effective four-seamer and reduce reliance on the two-seamer, while retaining the latter as a situational option.
Lodolo wouldn’t need every adjustment to work for the trade to pay off. The appeal is that he already has a major-league foundation, and the Rays could explore several targeted changes without needing to overhaul his entire arsenal.
