Very little is the same as it was in the 90’s for MLB. Definitely on that list is that playing in Colorado is not as supercharged as it once was. That said, to this day you can pretty well guess that hitters look forward to their trip to Denver and pitchers would rather skip it. Even with this pretty bad Rockies team, you can see where this wouldn’t have been super enjoyable for the Cubs pitching staff.
The Cubs offense produced 15 hits in this one and drew four walks. That’s a pretty exceptional
output all by itself. But digging deeper, five of the hits were doubles, one a triple and four were homers. Seven different Cubs had hits and six of them had two or more. Ironically, arguably their two biggest stars — Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong — were the two without a hit. Tucker had a pair of walks and scored once. PCA had a sac fly to drive in a run.
Cade Horton had a reasonable five innings allowing two runs. That was a strong enough start to pick up a win and to give the offense ample opportunity to take control of this one. Ben Brown was tagged for three (two earned) runs and Drew Pomeranz also allowed two. The Cubs allowed 14 hits and three walks themselves. So different sequencing in either direction might have seen a closer game or a different outcome.
In the end, it doesn’t really matter. The Cubs won again. They win their 77th game. If the Cubs go just 13-14 over these last 27 games, they will win 90 games. If we roughly cut the season to date into thirds, then the first two-thirds saw the Cubs playing excellent ball, looking like they could win 100 and then the final third sees them playing at .500. Those feel like the parameters as they play a really weak last month plus of the season. If they struggle, they should be able to break even and their is a higher upside that sees them winning 50-60% of the games. Maybe something like 14-16 more wins. That will get them in the 91-93 win area. That falls into line with the 91.5 wins that Fangraphs currently sees for the Cubs. That would project to be the top Wild Card spot.
So the finish line is in sight. It was really refreshing to see the bats do some damage. More importantly, it felt good that their depth bats chipped in. The pitching has done so much of the work lately, I’m not going to lose sleep over a rough outing in Colorado. I’m less dismissive of the struggles in San Francisco. It was hard to watch two of their top three starters face the Giants and the team to get swept. It definitely felt like a better road trip could have been had.
But let’s still get six on the trip.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 158, 44 BF
- Rockies: 146, 46 BF
The Cubs threw over 17 pitches per inning. The Rockies over 16. Both of those numbers are bad. The Cubs faced 17 excess hitters and the Rockies 19. Again, the numbers are pretty bad all over. The big difference in the pitch count? The Cubs struck out 10 Rockies and the Rockies struck out only two Cubs. This was a remarkably good approach to the game.
Ben Brown for the Cubs and Antonio Senzatela for the Rockies both threw a lot of pitches and it is hard to imagine either of them throwing again in the series. Between three other Cub relievers and two other Rockie relievers, none threw more than 19 pitches and all should be pretty available this weekend.
Three Stars:
- Dansby Swanson had a huge night. He was only a few feet from a three-homer game. He drove in six with a pair of homers and a base-clearing triple.
- Ian Happ had a pair of doubles and a homer. Happ’s OPS+ nudges up to 106. He could still get back to his career average 115. Happ drove in two and scored two.
- Michael Busch had a single and a homer. He scored twice and drove in one.
Game 135, August 29: Cubs 11, Rockies 7 (77-58)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Dansby Swanson (.216). 3-5, 2 HR, 3B, 6 RBI, 3 R
- Hero: Ian Happ (.163). 3-5, HR, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 2 R
- Sidekick: Nico Hoerner (.075). 2-4, 2 2B, BB, 2 R
THREE GOATS
- Billy Goat: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.081). 0-4, SF, RBI
- Goat: Reese McGuire (-.034). 2-5
- Kid: Matt Shaw (-.026). 1-5, RBI
WPA Play of the Game: Yanquiel Fernandez hit a two-run homer in the fourth to cut a three-run Cub lead to one. (.177)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Dansby Swanson’s first homer, with a runner on second and one out in the second for the game’s first two runs. (.140)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Kyle Tucker (33 votes) over Michael Busch (25). 90 votes total.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +27
- Shōta Imanaga +22
- Matthew Boyd +20
- Jameson Taillon +16
- Michael Busch +15.67
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Carson Kelly -16
- Ben Brown -19
- Dansby Swanson -24.33
- Seiya Suzuki -28
Scoreboard Watching: Padres (Wild Card 2) lose (Cubs up 2). Mets (WC 3) win (Cubs up 4). Reds lose (Cubs up 9). The Reds need to finish 22-5 to reach 90 wins. And I’ll still take the over on 90 wins for the Cubs. This team is closing on a full lock on a playoff spot and the Reds are drifting out of contention.
Up Next: Javier Assad (0-1, 3.86) makes his fourth start of the season. Last time out, he allowed one run over six innings. He allowed two hits and a walk. Last September, he allowed four runs over six innings against the Rockies in Colorado.
25-year-old righty McCade Brown (0-1, 9.82, 3.2 IP) will make his second career start. The Normal, Illinois native was a third round pick for the Rockies in 2021 (79th overall). He had a rough debut in Pittsburgh against the Pirates. With all due respect to the kid, I’m going to hope his second start doesn’t go any better.
Win another one.
