The Dallas Mavericks enter the 2026-2027 season with numerous questions, but Cooper Flagg isn’t one them.
The 19-year old enters his second season with sky-high expectations, fueled by his incredible play in the back-half of last season.
The jump from year one to year two is often massive, especially for generational talents such as Flagg. For example: LeBron James went from 20.9 points per game, to over 27 points per game, while also improving his efficiency. Obviously it is unfair to levy these expectations
on Flagg, but most superstars show tremendous growth in their first real NBA offseason.
Flagg averaged 23 points, 5 assists, and 7 rebounds in his final 51 games, including multiple 40+ point games. Flagg’s comfort level and confidence grew exponentially, quickly becoming one of the most dangerous downhill scorers in all of basketball.
But at just 19-years of age, there is still ample room for growth. Flagg shot just 29% from three on the season, and often turned down open threes to settle for tougher shots. His defense was also somewhat inconsistent, as even though he averaged nearly 2 steals and blocks per game, the advanced metrics suggest he was only average on that end.
Flagg’s potential is truly limitless, and he has already shown incredible development in his young career. All of this leads me to believe that a special season is ahead for the former number one overall pick.
Big Question
This one is easy; Cooper Flagg has to shoot the ball better in 2026.
Flagg was an all-around bad shooter last season. He shot 29% from three with only attempting 3.5 threes per game. He also took far too many “long mid range” jumpers, which are defined as two point attempts that are attempted from farther than 10 feet.
This combination of poor shot selection and poor shot-making cratered Flagg’s efficiency last season, as he was in the 25th percentile for league-wide true-shooting%.
This lack of shooting also effected his ability to get downhill, with many teams simply ignoring him on the perimeter to load up on his drives. His sheer unwillingness to attempt these shots was the biggest issue, as he would often settle for 18 footers rather than simply taking an open three.
If Flagg can extend the defense to beyond the three-point line, he becomes truly un-guardable. We even saw an example of this last season against the Orlando Magic when Flagg scored 51 points. He made six threes in nine attempts, including a barrage or tough threes in the fourth quarter.
Now I’m not going to expect a massive jump in efficiency, nor will I expect a massive jump in attempts. But if Flagg does not at least try and extend his range, his scoring potential will be capped underneath a hard-ceiling.
Best-Case scenario
Simply put, the best-case scenario for Cooper Flagg this season is joining the conversation for the best player in the world.
This may seem completely far-fetched, but Mavericks have seen this exact scenario play out before with Luka Doncic. Both players had record-breaking rookie seasons, and entered year two with sky-high expectations, with Doncic becoming a top-5 player in the world overnight.
So how could Flagg reach that seemingly impossible level?
Well it would take some significant development, but not it would not be impossible. First, Flagg would have to go from a bad shooter to a very good one. Outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo, all of the other players in the top 5 are elite shooters from either the three or mid-range. Flagg would have to double his three-point attempts while also increasing efficiency.
A similar jump was seen with Jayson Tatum, as he went from attempting 3.9 3PA at 37%, to over 8 threes per game at 40% from his second to third season.
Along with improvements in his shooting, Flagg would also have to improve his ball-handling. While Flagg did not produce many turnovers overall, he was top 10 in the league in lost balls that resulted in turnovers. These issues were exasperated when Flagg went up against the truly elite perimeter defenders in the league, as he often struggled to create space against these players.
Finally, Flagg would have to adjust to defenses having a year of film on his game, and deal with the amount of attention he will receive. I imagine defenses will try and pressure him as much as possible, throwing lots of bodies in his direction. If he has the composure to deal with this pressure consistently, defenses will be completely out-of-luck when playing the Mavericks.
Worst case scenario
The worse case scenario for Cooper Flagg is staying stagnant.
I think it’s very unlikely Flagg will regress in year 2, especially because he didn’t have unsustainable outside shooting.
If spent his entire summer at the beach this scenario could happen, otherwise, I don’t think its very likely.
Season goal
The goal for Cooper Flagg in his sophomore season should be to make an all-star team, and compete for an All-NBA selection.
This may seem like a very high bar, but it really shouldn’t be that hard for Flagg to reach. If he’s able to slightly increase his volume and efficiency in both scoring and playmaking, being an all-star should be relatively easy.
But past getting recognition from his peers and fans, another bar he needs to reach is in his leadership.
Flagg is already a vocal player who plays with a tremendous amount of energy and hustle, so becoming the leader of this team shouldn’t be that hard. Obviously Kyrie Irving is the team’s leader, but he isn’t the future of the franchise.
Flagg doesn’t need to be a perfect leader as a 20-year-old, nor does it really matter for this season. But whether wants it or not, the team will be molded in his image, both in their playstyle, and the mentality of the team.
Overall
It cannot be overstated how excited Mavericks fans should be for Cooper Flagg’s second season. He has every tool to be a superstar, and has shown the hunger to improve over his entire career.
The roster construction could hold him back from truly reaching his potential this season, as he will more than likely be forced to play another season at point guard.
But I’m confident Flagg will excel.
Why?
Because it’s all he’s ever done.
