Before the Kansas City Chiefs’ Week 17 matchup with the Denver Broncos, all but one of our Arrowhead Pride panelists correctly picked the Broncos to win. Our aggregate prediction was for Denver to collect
a 23-15 victory, which had just six points of error* compared to the 20-13 final.
In Week 18, the Chiefs are on the road to finish their season against the Las Vegas Raiders. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas City is favored by 4.5 points.
Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.
Nate Christensen (@natech32)
I think it would have been reasonable before this season to say this game would have little at stake in Week 18, but I am not sure either team expected this. The Chiefs were obviously projected to be contenders, but even the Raiders were expecting to be competitive.
Now, however, the Raiders could land the draft’s first overall pick and will likely have a new coach next year. The Chiefs had a disastrous season that kept them out of the playoffs.
I know the Chiefs have lost the last five games, but the current Raiders are a different level of bad — even when compared to the Tennessee Titans. Maxx Crosby was their only good defender, and he’s not playing. Kenny Pickett is playing quarterback without Brock Bowers.
I think Chris Oladokun will have no problem dicing up the Raiders’ current defense, and the Chiefs’ defense has remained competitive after Patrick Mahomes’s injury. I would be shocked if the Raiders won this game.
Chiefs 24, Raiders 10
John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)
Neither of these teams has had a good season. Both will be without significant contributors and will have an incentive to lose the season’s final game to improve their draft position, so this is not exactly a formula for a great matchup. While both squads are led by experienced old-school coaches who are capable of getting their players up for such a contest, only one of them — the Chiefs’ Andy Reid — appears likely to be back in 2026. So on that basis, I would give Kansas City the edge in this game.
Chiefs 20, Raiders 13
Maurice Elston (@MrMauriceElston)
This matchup between the Chiefs and Raiders arrives with little at stake on either side. Las Vegas, while unlikely to state it publicly, benefits more from draft positioning than a late-season win. Individual effort should still be present, but there is little incentive for the organization to push aggressively for a result. Kansas City, meanwhile, should approach the game with the intent to win while also using the opportunity to evaluate younger players and depth pieces ahead of the offseason.
How the Chiefs deploy Travis Kelce may be one of the more revealing elements of the afternoon. His usage could offer insight into how the organization views this moment — whether it is simply another game or potentially a closing chapter. Beyond that, the focus should be on rotations, snap distribution, and how the staff manages a game without postseason implications.
With both teams operating outside their usual urgency, the expectation is a cleaner game for Kansas City, driven by structure rather than explosiveness. The Chiefs should have enough control on both sides of the ball to close the season with a win, even as the reality of a January without football sets in.
Chiefs 24, Raiders 13
Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels)
I can’t believe this Sunday will be the last time we see Chiefs football until August… but here we are.
This is basically the Tank Bowl. The Raiders will secure the No. 1 draft pick with a loss, while the Chiefs would be locked into a top-10 pick with a loss.
For as bad as things are for the Chiefs, I don’t think they’re bad enough to lose to this Raiders team. Also, it could be Travis Kelce’s last game, so that’s extra motivation for the guys to potentially send him off with a win.
Chiefs 23, Raiders 13
Caleb James (@CJScoobs)
Well, it was certainly an interesting season. Far from the championship aspirations of the past eight years, but it should provide the change needed for the team to once again transform into contenders.
For the Chiefs to help themselves out, losing this week would not be the worst thing in the world, but the Raiders are a different type of mess. They will be starting backup quarterback Kenny Pickett, and will be without star pass rusher Maxx Crosby as well as other key contributors.
Poised for the first overall selection in the draft, it would take a truly horrendous effort from Kansas City to lose this one, which is hard to believe considering that the team played with grit on Christmas night despite losing to the Broncos.
The Chiefs’ goal should be to have all key players for 2026 exit the game healthy and get a look at any younger players on the roster who have not received significant playing time this year.
If this is it for Travis Kelce, soak it in because he is one of one. Many will try to replicate, but will never be able to duplicate. Maybe he will be back in 2026, but all eyes will be focused on him this Sunday.
Chiefs 17, Raiders 7
Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)
Despite it being in the Chiefs’ best interest, I just can’t bring myself to root for them to lose to the Raiders. I’d rather see Las Vegas pick first overall — trusting the team to screw it up like it always does — than for Kansas City to have a better draft position.
Yes… I know that strategically, this makes no sense. But my hatred for all things Silver and Black runs so deep that I can do nothing but wish for their utter obliteration.
It also helps that the Raiders will be doing their best to avoid winning. So I’m expecting bad football from both offenses — and a game that will end with Las Vegas in single digits and Kansas City barely making it to double digits.
It won’t be pretty, but it will be the right way to begin the Chiefs’ 2026 campaign — and the old, bitter part of me that loathes the Raiders will be alive and well as we dance on the grave of their 2025 season.
Chiefs 10, Raiders 6
Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)
I don’t think the Chiefs have been trying to tank, but even if they were, there’s no outtanking the Raiders this week. The Raiders currently hold the top selection in a draft that may end up with only one top quarterback prospect. Las Vegas is not squandering this opportunity.
I think the Chiefs will play loose with minimal resistance from a Raiders squad playing without Maxx Crosby and starting Kenny Pickett at quarterback. This is not how Kansas City envisioned playing Week 18, but I expect the team to make the game as fun as possible.
The Chiefs may or may not know whether this is Travis Kelce’s final game. Either way, I predict he will get as many opportunities as possible to close a frustrating season in style.
Chiefs 27, Raiders 10
Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)
In what is sure to be a sad shell of a game, these two division rivals mercifully close out their respective seasons. I sincerely hate (and doubt) the idea that NFL teams ‘tank’ on purpose. The players are going to do everything they can to get a win, and put good football on film. I highly doubt that many players even consider the idea of helping the team’s front office get a higher pick that could be used to replace them.
So, let’s keep expectations low and try to enjoy whatever glimpses of the future we get to see from Brashard Smith, Jalen Royals and Nohl Williams. Let’s marvel at Esa Pole and Chu Godrick as they continue their unlikely NFL paths — and bet on Travis Kelce breaking records.
The superior franchise probably wins here, carried by the defense. A merciful end to a rough season.
Chiefs 15, Raiders 12
With their predictions aggregated, our panelists expect the Chiefs to win 20-11.
What do you think?
2025 Standings
| TW | LW | Staffer | W | L | Pct | Err |
| 1 | 2 | Mark Gunnels | 8 | 8 | 0.5000 | 23.5 |
| 2 | 1 | Jared Sapp | 8 | 8 | 0.5000 | 23.6 |
| 3 | 3 | Maurice Elston | 8 | 8 | 0.5000 | 24.3 |
| 4 | 4 | Matt Stagner | 8 | 8 | 0.5000 | 28.4 |
| 5 | 5 | Nate Christensen | 7 | 9 | 0.4375 | 23.3 |
| 6 | 5 | Caleb James | 7 | 9 | 0.4375 | 24.1 |
| 7 | 8 | John Dixon | 6 | 10 | 0.3750 | 26.5 |
| 8 | 7 | Rocky Magaña | 5 | 11 | 0.3125 | 30.0 |
In Week 17, both Nate Christensen and Mark Gunnels predicted the Broncos would beat the Chiefs 23-10. Those picks each missed a total of 12 points. John Dixon’s call for a 27-10 Denver victory was the second-best prediction, with 20 points of error.
*To calculate a prediction’s points of error, the differences between the prediction and the actual score in point spread, home team score and away team score are added together. For example, a prediction calls for a 17-10 Chiefs win. They end up winning 16-10, so there were two points of error: the point spread was off by one point, the Kansas City score missed by one point and the opponent’s score was predicted correctly. But if the Chiefs lose the game 17-10, there were 28 points of error in the prediction: the point spread was off by 14 (the difference between +7 and -7) and both scores missed by 7.
