The Chicago Bears (3-1) come to Lambeau as a 2.5- to 3-point favorite, the Bears’ first time favored in Green Bay in 20 years. Caleb Williams (Grade 2 hamstring) is listed as questionable, so Tyson Bagent will likely start. Ben Johnson has won with three different quarterbacks this season, and the Bears’ defense has held three straight opponents to 12 points or fewer. Green Bay (2-2) lost LB Edgerrin Cooper for the season last week in a win over Tampa Bay on the road.
2025 recap
The Bears went 11-6 in Johnson’s
first year and won the NFC North. They beat the Packers 31-27 in the Wild Card round before losing in the divisional round. The offense improved from 27th to roughly league average in EPA/play (0.048) and ranked 1st in rushing EPA. The defense was opportunistic but not good: it led the NFL with 33 takeaways, yet ranked 21st in EPA/play, 30th when turnovers are excluded, and 26th in success rate. It also managed only 35 sacks (22nd).
Who’s gone
- WR DJ Moore was traded to Buffalo.
- S Kevin Byard signed with New England.
- S Jaquan Brisker signed with Pittsburgh.
- S C.J. Gardner-Johnson signed with Buffalo.
- LB Tremaine Edmunds was released.
- C Drew Dalman retired.
- DT Andrew Billings signed with Arizona.
- CB Nahshon Wright signed with the Jets.
- WR Olamide Zaccheaus signed with Atlanta.
- WR/KR Devin Duvernay signed with Arizona.
- OC Declan Doyle departed; Johnson still calls the plays.
- Assistant GM Ian Cunningham departed.
Who’s new
- S Coby Bryant signed for 3 years, $40M.
- LB Devin Bush signed for 3 years, $30M.
- DT Neville Gallimore signed for 2 years, $12M.
- WR Kalif Raymond signed for 1 year, $5.1M.
- C Garrett Bradbury was acquired in a trade with New England.
- CB Cam Lewis, DT Kentavius Street, OT Jedrick Wills and DE Marcus Davenport also signed.
- S Dillon Thieneman was a 1st-round pick and starts.
- C Logan Jones was a 2nd-round pick.
- TE Sam Roush and WR Zavion Thomas were 3rd-round picks.
- CB Malik Muhammad was a 4th-round pick.
- LB Keyshaun Elliott was a 5th-round pick.
- DT Jordan van den Berg was a 6th-round pick.
- The defense, in Dennis Allen’s second year, was rebuilt for speed in the back seven; the edge group was not addressed.
Efficiency, 2026 through Week 4
Bears offense
- EPA/play: 0.05 (9th)
- EPA/dropback: 0.14 (10th)
- EPA/rush: -0.02 (~9th)
- Success rate: 46.6% (~9th)
- Rushing yards: 785 (1st)
Bears defense
- EPA/play allowed: -0.12 (4th)
- EPA/dropback allowed: -0.23 (2nd; 1st at -0.27 per Next Gen Stats)
- EPA/rush allowed: +0.03 (~29th)
- Success rate allowed: 43.2% (14th)
- Third-down conversion rate allowed: 23.7% (2nd)
- Opponents on 3rd-and-7 or longer: 1-for-18
Packers offense
- EPA/play: -0.13 (26th)
- EPA/dropback: -0.02
- EPA/rush: -0.38 (32nd)
- Success rate: 39.6%
Packers defense
- EPA/play allowed: -0.02 (17th)
- EPA/dropback allowed: 0.00
- EPA/rush allowed: -0.04
- Success rate allowed: 45.4%
2025 Bears (full season)
- Offense EPA/play: 0.048 (up from -0.100 in 2024)
- Offense rushing EPA/play: 1st
- Defense EPA/play: 21st (30th excluding turnovers)
- Defense success rate: 26th
- Takeaways: 33 (1st)
- Sacks: 35 (22nd)
Stats pulled from Sumer Sports advanced metrics.
Bears first four games
- W 59-37 at CAR: Williams accounted for four TDs, and the Bears ran for 291 yards. It was the highest-scoring Week 1 game in NFL history, but the defense gave up 361 passing yards.
- L 3-9 vs. MIN: The Bears were shut down in the rain, with special teams miscues and penalties. Williams hurt his hamstring, and Bagent left with a concussion.
- W 27-7 vs. PHI: Case Keenum went 24-of-34 for 247 yards and 3 total TDs. The defense forced 3 takeaways, including a pick by Thieneman.
- W 23-12 vs. NYJ: Bagent went 25-of-34 for 268 yards, and Kyle Monangai ran 30 times for 146 yards and 2 TDs. Chicago outgained New York 492-157, never punted, and held the Jets to 0-of-7 on third down and only 32 plays.
Keys for Green Bay
Run at the Bears’ weakness. Chicago’s run defense ranks near the bottom of the league in EPA per rush, and Green Bay’s run game ranks last. Something has to give, and the Packers need it to be Chicago, or they will live in the third-and-long situations the Bears thrive on.
Win outside with Watson and Golden. Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson have allowed 449 yards and 3 TDs into their coverage. Both Packers receivers rank top-12 in receiving yards.
Get Bagent off his spot. He was 23-of-26 from clean pockets last week behind an elite line. With Cooper gone, Jonathan Gannon has to manufacture pressure without giving up the screen game, which Johnson called six times last week.
Tackle. Roughly half of Chicago’s passing yards last week came after the catch, with an average depth of target under 7 yards. Monangai and D’Andre Swift punish missed tackles.
Play clean. The Packers rank last in penalty yards (344), drops (13) and fumbles (10). Those mistakes put Chicago’s top-2 third-down defense in position to win the game.
