Last summer, the Golden State Warriors had the most noteworthy restricted free agency standoff with Jonathan Kuminga. This year, the Dubs appear to be done with their offseason roster moves, but the Detroit Pistons and restricted free agent Jalen Duren remain in a staring contest of their own.
In a previous era of the NBA, the Warriors would be in position to offer Duren the $40 million per year deal he’s looking for while sending Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski (or Yaxel Lendeboorg),
and future picks to the Pistons in a sign-and-trade. However, the new CBA hard caps teams that complete a deal sign-and-trade at the first apron, making it impossible for the Dubs to pull off a sign-and-trade without essentially forcing the Dubs to trade Jimmy Butler.
Instead, Golden State is in position to play a longer game with Duren. Golden State is among the few teams in position to create max salary cap space next offseason alongside a chance to play with another bonafide star. While Duren has most consistently been tied to the Sacramento Kings, an opportunity to get max money without joining an organization most known for incompetence.
While the idea of a “max” deal for Duren may scare Dub Nation, it’s important to contextualize it. Since Duren has only been in the NBA for four years, the estimated maximum first-year salary the Warriors could offer him next offseason is around $43 million. A significant number for sure, but significantly less than the largest salaries in the league. The Warriors need another All-Star to return to contention. Maybe Jimmy Butler can be that in his return from an ACL injury, but that seems unlikely at his age. With Curry, Butler, and Draymond Green all closer to 40 than 30, adding an All-Star like Duren who will not turn 25 until 2028 could genuinely change the franchise’s trajectory.
The Pistons have reportedly offered Duren a five-year, $190 million deal while he is eyeing something north of $200 million, which is understandable. If he is quite confident another team will offer him a max contract worth $187.05 million over four years next summer, he could accept the qualifying offer and end up effectively netting a five-year, $196.7 million deal across two contracts.
Of course, that comes with significant risk if he has a down year or suffers an injury. That said, there is still some upside for Duren since he has already made an All-NBA team and qualifies for the “super max.” If Duren accepts the qualifying offer and takes another step forward next season, he could be in position to leverage the Pistons into a significantly larger deal.
The odds seem highest that the Pistons and Duren will eventually come to an agreement. It’s simply a massive risk to pass on nearly $200 million guaranteed. However, Duren is still only 22 and averaged roughly 20 points and 11 rebounds per game on a 60-win team last season. He has already earned an All-Star and All-NBA Third Team selection. Players like Dennis Schröder, Nerleans Noel, and Jonathan Kuminga are the common examples of players who overplayed their hand in restricted free agent negotiations, but none of them had achieved close to what Duren has at this point in their careers.
