Every week, we’ll examine the numbers behind the next opponent on the schedule. We’ll look at historical data points as well as more recent numbers. At the end, we’ll add it all up to see what Dallas needs to do to secure a win and which team may have the edge.
The history
The very first time the Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans met was the very first time the Texans ever played, September 8, 2002. They beat Dallas 19-10 at home in Reliant Stadium.
Tony Romo’s career began in a blowout win versus the Texans.
The future franchise quarterback stepped in late and threw the first touchdown of his career to Terrell Owens. He would be named the starter just two weeks later.
The last time the two teams met was November 18, 2024. The Texans poured it on Dallas in a blowout victory, winning 34-10.
Will the pass rush finally get home?
The Cowboys are trapped in a world of quarterback pressures without any sacks. With just two sacks in three games, this pass rush needs to figure out a way to get home. However, when we look across the field at what the Texans are working with, this could finally be the week the seal breaks.
Houston has allowed C.J. Stroud to live under constant duress so far this season. They’ve allowed the fourth most pressures among quarterbacks with 100 drop backs, and Stroud is tied for second in sacks because of it. Surprisingly, Houston is blitzed at the lowest rate in the NFL meaning they’ve been losing to plenty of four-man rushes.
In addition, the Texans have little-to-no run game to speak of. They rank 25th in yards per carry and 30th in rushing yards. According to SumerSports, their rush success rate ranks them 25th in the NFL.
Zooming in on last week versus the Ravens, nearly 40% of the rushing yards allowed came from the mobile quarterback and on an end around to Zay Flowers. The Texans don’t have those elements on their offense.
If Dallas is able to strangle the Texans’ lackluster run game, this only helps the pass rushers get home on third-and-long. For the first time this season, they’ll be facing a team with a mostly stationary quarterback and a poor offensive line. If there were ever a time for it to click, it’d be this week.
Cowboys key stats from last week
Dak Prescott threw for 276 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions against the Ravens. He finished with a 91.2 quarterback rating.
The run game finally got going in Rio. Javonte Williams finished with 98 yards on 19 carries. The team would tally 148 yards on the ground on 30 carries, totaling a fantastic 4.9 yards per carry.
CeeDee Lamb continued his dominant campaign, finishing with seven catches for 112 yards. George Pickens is also starting to come alive. He totaled 82 receiving yards on seven receptions.
The defense only allowed three first downs on nine third down attempts on the day. They did not allow the Ravens to convert either of their two fourth down attempts. This defensive unit improved on third down, but first and second down were still losers overall.
Texans key stats from last week
The Texans fell to the Colts last week, losing 19-17.
Last week was a strange one for Houston. The Texans forced three turnovers while committing none of their own, yet still gave up the game. You won’t see many losses with a turnover differential like that on the board.
Superstar edge Will Anderson Jr. finished the game with seven tackles and 2.5 sacks. He added two forced fumbles, one of which set up a go-ahead score near midfield.
What do the numbers mean?
If there was ever a time that the Cowboys pass rush should be able to establish themselves, this would be it. Every available metric points to the pass rush getting home on Sunday. Unfortunately for us analytical types, football is played on the field and not on pieces of scratch paper. The numbers may indicate one thing, but at the end of the day the players need to play.
With that in mind, it will be interesting to see exactly which personnel Parker rolls with off the edge this week. Against the Ravens, Malachi Lawrence saw only 17 snaps. But he’s been one of the most successful pass rushers when we look at win rate. There were concerns around his ability to contain Lamar Jackson and so he sat for nearly 75% of the snaps. This week, however, there is a much smaller threat in terms of quarterback mobility. I would expect to see a ton of Lawrence and Donovan Ezeiruaku pairings on the field – especially on third down.
The secondary is banged up. This is a massive cause for concern. Dallas began to address this issue by making a trade once again with the Pittsburgh Steelers for cornerback Joey Porter Jr. If the new corner is active this week, expect a limited snap count while he acclimates. When he is on the field, his best immediate usage is to man up in press coverage. Parker’s defense relies on communication and it’s unrealistic to expect him to be on the same page as the other defensive backs right out of the gate. Give him a think-free assignment for now and allow him to play fast.
On the offensive side, Dallas is facing a stiff test this week. The Texans are currently ranked fifth in the NFL versus the run. However with linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair currently listed as doubtful for the game, that linebacker corps is looking extremely thin. Dallas may even be facing an old friend in Kenneth Murray as a practice squad elevation should things get dire enough for the Texans.
Look for Brian Schottenheimer to establish the run, effectively limiting the extremely talented Will Anderson Jr. and his pass rush off the edge. With how injured the Texans are at linebacker, this could be another week where we see the offensive line (and Brevyn Spann-Ford) plowing the way for Javonte Williams on the ground once again.
On the flip side, it’s also logical to assume Dallas would attack the Texans through the air. That defense ranks 26th versus the pass but does have one of the league’s premier game-wreckers on the edge with Will Anderson Jr. Tyler Guyton has held up so far this season but Terence Steele has struggled on the right side. Could this be a week where the Texans identify that matchup and force Dallas to commit extra help to Steele’s side? It’s certainly a matchup to keep an eye on. If given time, however, Dak and his elite receiving corps should be able to pass the ball around the field.
The Houston Texans are desperate. They’ve yet to win a game, but have lost two of three by a single possession. They’re close. And they’re most likely getting the dangerous Nico Collins back this week. It’s possible Collins goes off against a devastated Cowboys secondary. It’s also possible Dallas limits the Texans offense by cutting off their ground game and finally converting pressures into sacks versus the most stationary quarterback they’ve faced this season. Regardless of how dangerous the caged animal may be, I’ll take Dallas getting back on track this week with a win over the Texans.
