The NBA has reached the point where having ball handling and secondary creation is necessary throughout your five-man lineups. In watching the Dallas Mavericks at any point throughout the season, it was abundantly clear that they lacked that. This June, the Mavericks will start rectifying that with the NBA Draft. While a combo guard with playmaking upside isn’t the first thing you’d think the Mavs should draft, the choice of Brayden Burries might make itself.
The basics
Brayden Burries (born September 18, 2005)
was born and raised in San Bernardino, California. Burries was born into a family of athletes, as his father, Bobby, played basketball at Cal State San Bernardino and is a member of the school’s hall of fame. Not to be out done, his mother Hannah played college softball at the University of Tennessee before playing basketball at CSSB as a grad transfer.
Brayden was a consensus five-star guard coming out of Eleanor Roosevelt High in Eastvale, California (just southeast Los Angeles and north of San Diego). After a standout junior year, Burries was selected to play in the McDonald’s All-American Game. Following his senior year, Burries committed to Tommy Lloyd and the Arizona Wildcats. That turned out to be an excellent decision for Burries, who put together an elite campaign.
In just under 30 minutes per game, Burries averaged 16.1 points per game, which was complimented by five rebounds and two-and-a-half assists per contest. Burries had several fantastic performances away from McKale Center. He scored 28, including 20 in the second half, in a road win at Alabama in December. In January, Burries had 29 in a road win at AJ Dybantsa and BYU. Burries finished as an honorable mention All-American (USBWA and Associated Press), first team All-Big 12 team member and one of five finalists for the Jerry West Award, which is given to the best shooting guard in the country.
The good
- Burries was an efficiency God throughout the season. Arizona played a system which discouraged three-point shots, as they were bottom five in the country in terms of three-point rate. Even still, Burries was able to get up three pointers on nearly 42% of his shots, making over 39% of them. In the NCAA Tournament, Burries shot 52% from deep while increasing his three-point attempt rate from 42% to 54%. Burries has a good stroke, meaning there should be some scalability here. At just over four attempts per game in college, Burries could reasonably be expected to nearly double his attempts from three in the NBA.
- As far as guards go, there are few that clear the glass better than Burries. On the season, Burries hauled in 5.9 defensive rebounds per 40 minutes. In the NCAA Tournament, that number ballooned to 7.3 defensive rebounds per 40 minutes. The former was in the 94th percentile of guards last year, while the latter was in the 97th percentile, per CBB Analytics. Burries is not the tallest, but he uses his body well and has a knack for the ball to help finish possessions on the glass.
- On the year, Burries has a 62.3% true shooting percentage, which was 94th percentile among guards. In the NCAA Tournament, Burries had a TS% of 66.5%, which is truly outrageous. There is no area on the floor where Burries was inefficient. Per CBB Analytics data, Burries shot over 56% from two-point range, including over 65% at the rim, 39% from deep and 80% at the foul line. Those are all green light indicators.
- Burries has shown flashes on the defensive end that make me believe he’ll be a strong defender in the NBA. When Arizona faced Arkansas in the Sweet Sixteen, Burries drew the primary defensive assignment on Darius Acuff. In that game, Acuff scored 28, but was just eight of nineteen from the floor, including a paltry one-for-five from three-point range. Burries has a good frame, plays physically and has the basketball smarts to beat his man to the spot. Is it likely that he’ll be a “defensive stopper” in the NBA? Maybe not. But there’s a level to Burries where he is an excellent point of attack defender on many of the league’s best guards.
The areas of concern
- Because Burries shared the floor with Jaden Bradley for most of his minutes, there were not a ton of chances for him to showcase his playmaking chops. He was solid in the secondary creation role, but in the limited time when Burries was on the floor without Bradley, it looked a bit rough. In the Big 12 this year, only Burries, Honor Huff and Donovan Atwell played more than 1,150 minutes and had fewer than 100 total assists. I think there’s more to unlock here, especially on an NBA spaced floor. Think of VJ Edgecombe, who struggled with a compressed floor at Baylor. There’s some of that here, too.
- With Burries standing at just 6’4”, there are legitimate concerns about small off-guard’s that don’t have play-initiation pop. It’s not an architype that you would necessarily like to draft in the top ten, but those guys can be very productive NBA players. Derrick White and Quentin Grimes are guys like Burries. Those aren’t generational stars, but to varying levels they are both great in a role.
- Burries is an older freshman, as he is nearly 21 years old already. Teams will ding him on this, because of course they will, but that’s not a real issue. it’s not like he’s 25 years old.
Fit with the Mavericks
Burries would be a seamless fit for the Mavericks in both the near and the long term. In the near term, Burries slots in nicely at the two, next to a healthy Kyrie Irving in the back court and as a nice compliment to Cooper Flagg. In the long term, Burries is never a guy you’ll have to worry about fit with. He’s never going to be a guy who needs plays run for him, but he will be one of the biggest connecting tissues on your team. While he won’t fill the point guard role for the Mavericks, it’s safe to assume you can plug him into your rotation for the next ten years.
NBA comparison
Two guys who are pretty good comps are those that I mentioned earlier, Derrick White and Quentin Grimes. If you’d like a more aggressive comp, perhaps Bradley Beal could be out there if he does get a bump from his shot diet. All three of those guys are going to be scoring guards with a sprinkle of secondary creation, something I think is well within Burries’ reach.
