Welcome to a new season of Stats Corner. For the first article I am going to do a Power Ranking, just like everyone else in the country. However, unlike everyone else in the country, I am going to rank teams based solely on their likelihood of winning the conference. This is not ranking teams by who I think is the best team, or who I think would win head-to-head on a neutral site, but rather who is most likely to win the conference title. Consideration was given to the teams being played, with an eight
team schedule each team does not play all the teams in the conference, and where the game is being played, home vs away. Probabilities are the likelihood of team winning; to keep things a little simple, percentages have been rounded to the whole number and all values less than 1% were round up to 1%.
#1 Boise State
59% chance of winning the conference | 99% chance of reaching 6 wins
Key Games: Notre Dame (10% chance), UNLV (65% chance)
Surprise, surprise – the Broncos sit at the top. Aside from a tough match-up with Notre Dame, Boise State is favored in every game. Fortunately for them, their home schedule includes a visit from UNLV, a team they’ve dominated in recent years. The road games, which include Air Force, Nevada, San Diego State, and Utah State, look favorable. Even playing at South Florida, Boise is favored with a 70% chance of winning. If they suffer a single loss to a Power 4 opponent, they’ll likely still be in Playoff conversation.
#2 UNLV
33% chance of winning the conference | 99% chance of reaching 6 wins
Key Games: UCLA (36% chance), @Boise State (35% chance)
After a heartbreaking OT loss to Syracuse and two tough losses to Boise State last year, UNLV is back and ready for redemption. The schedule is manageable, with road trips to Wyoming, Colorado State, and Nevada, while home games against Air Force, New Mexico, Utah State, and Hawaii should set them up for a strong finish. Their toughest hurdle? The road trip to Boise. A rematch in the conference championship between Boise (11-1) and UNLV (10-2) is looking likely.
#3 San Jose State
3% chance of winning the conference | 80% chance of reaching 6 wins
Key Games: @Stanford, @San Diego State, Fresno State
A significant drop-off occurs after the top two teams, but San Jose State has a fairly favorable schedule, as they are the only team to dodge both Boise and UNLV. The Spartans also have manageable road games at Wyoming, Utah State, Nevada, and San Diego State. If they can stay undefeated, or only one loss, in the conference, they they have the best a shot at upsetting for the title, as either Boise or UNLV must have a conference loss.
#4 Fresno State
3% chance of winning the conference | 76% chance of reaching 6 wins
Key Games: @Boise State, @San Jose State
Fresno State faces a challenging out-of-conference schedule with road games at Kansas (20% chance) and Oregon State (about the same). Their title chances are similar to San Jose State’s, but they face the challenge of having to travel to both Boise and San Jose. Winning both will be a tough task, but not entirely out of the question.
#5 Colorado State
2% chance of winning the conference | 73% chance of reaching 6 wins
Key Games: Fresno State, UNLV, @Boise State
After a tough opener at Washington (11% chance), Colorado State benefits from a favorable home stretch, with five of their next six games at home. To make a run at the conference title, they’ll need to take advantage of their home games, especially the one against Fresno State. However, two tough match ups against UNLV and at Boise late in the season will test their mettle.
#6 Utah State
1% chance of winning the conference | 43% chance of reaching 6 wins
Key Games: San Jose State, @UNLV, @Fresno State, Boise State
The conference schedule was not kind to the Aggies. They go from Vanderbilt to Hawaii in back-to-back road games, that could be a season record for longest distance between road games (4328 miles). Then end the season on the road against UNLV and Fresno State, before finishing at home against Boise (and let’s face it, Boise plays well in Logan and the Aggies usually play poorly against the Broncos period). While Utah State could be a better team than their record suggests, reaching 6 wins will likely be their ceiling.
#7 San Diego State
1% chance of winning the conference | 36% chance of reaching 6 wins
Key Games: @Fresno State, Boise State, San Jose State
San Diego State’s schedule is a tough one, facing off against Fresno, Boise, and San Jose. Additionally, they’ll need to contend with non-conference games against Washington, California, and Northern Illinois. Like Utah State, the Aztecs could struggle to reach 6 wins, though they are certainly better than their ranking suggests.
#8 Wyoming
1% chance of winning the conference | 30% chance of reaching 6 wins
Key Games: San Jose State, @San Diego State, @Fresno State
Wyoming’s schedule is tough, with tough road games against Utah, Colorado, UNLV, and San Jose State. Their toughest stretch comes with back-to-back away games against San Diego State and Fresno State. Despite avoiding Boise, this is one of the hardest schedules in the conference.
#9 Hawaii
1% chance of winning the conference | 44% chance of reaching 6 wins
Key Games: @San Jose State, San Diego State, @UNLV
Out of the teams with only a 1% or less chance of winning the conference, the Rainbow Warriors are the most likely to go bowling, so why so low? The team faces a brutal four-game stretch with road games at Colorado State and San Jose State, then home against San Diego State, and on the road UNLV. For a team that does not travel well, that will be tough. On the plus side, they are favored (58% chance) against Stanford.
#10 New Mexico
1% chance of winning the conference | 24% chance of reaching 6 wins
Key Games: @San Jose State, @UNLV, San Diego State
The game of the Lobo’s season: Utah State
Who thought playing at Michigan and at UCLA was a good way to start the season? The conference schedule does not get much better starting at San Jose State then going to Boise. Another team who will probably be better than their record. And you know, October 25th is their most important home game this decade.
#11 Air Force
1% chance of winning the conference | 33% chance of reaching 6 wins
Key Games: @Utah State, Boise State, @UNLV
The Falcons season might be determined before they even play Navy. They play @Utah State, then host Boise and Hawaii. Even with a win against Bucknell (95% chance), the Falcons could be looking at 1-3 and 0-3 in conference and would need to go to Navy, then to UNLV, which gives the Aggies a contest in the longest back-to-back road games traveled distance ( “only” 24366 miles).
#12 Nevada
1% chance of winning the conference | 17% chance of reaching 6 wins
Key Games: Fresno State, @Utah State, UNLV
The season is not looking good for the Wolfpack. They’re huge underdogs in most of their games, and ESPN has even turned off the Moneyline for their match-up against Penn State, making it clear how little confidence the betting community has in the Wolfpack. In other words you cannot get odds for the Wolfpack to win, you can only bet if they lose by more or less that 57.5 points. Right now, rounding their 0.08% chance of winning the conference to 1% seems a little generous.
