This time of year is hard for me when it comes to football content. Everyone wants to know about the upcoming draft and yours truly doesn’t know Jack about college football. Back in 2020, I found a way to give myself something to write about. I pull data on visits for the Buffalo Bills and use an analytics-based approach to make draft predictions.
The premise is simple. Not even billionaires can buy more time, and teams are limited in at least one type of visit (the top 30 visits). Teams simply don’t
have much reason to talk to prospects for the heck of it. If I can work out where they spent their time, maybe I can work out who they’ll pick.
How have I been doing?
I believe pretty darn well. In 2024 I finally did it. I correctly picked the Bills’ first selection when I said the Analytics Method pointed toward Keon Coleman. That’s arguably my finest hour, but let’s take a look at last year’s guesses, found here.
For the short version, I predicted that Isaiah Bond would have been the target had his draft stock not plummeted from pre-draft assault allegations. Having to pivot away from Bond, I noted some difficulty in sifting through the data but predicted cornerback Trey Amos as the first pick. The Bills picked Maxwell Hairston, meaning I had the position right. For the record, Amos was still on the board so I don’t have that as an out.
I also predicted a defense-heavy draft with more specific predictions toward a second-round defensive tackle pick that I felt Brandon Beane might trade up for. I also predicted a linebacker to be picked, with Teddye Buchanan or Pooh Paul being the likely candidates. I also felt Buffalo would pick Bond in Round 3. I didn’t get the names right, and the Cleveland Browns signed Bonds as an undrafted free agent, but I don’t think I did too badly.
The Bills did in fact trade up in Round 2 to select a defensive tackle (T.J. Sanders). Landon Jackson was next, with EDGE being as close as they got to linebacker. The Bills’ first five picks went to defense, with six of their nine total selections being defense.
What does 2026 have in store?
I spent more time tooting my own horn above, because the 2026 data is about as not fun as it gets for someone like me. With only 42 players I could find visit information for, it’s the smallest data set I’ve ever had to work from. Not by a ton mind you (we’ve had numbers in the 40s a couple times before). It’s still not great.
Exacerbating that, there’s not a ton to go from when looking at schools. Usually this can indicate interest toward specific player as they may want to canvas teammates or opponents of a coveted player.
This year, the closest thing to a spike is three players from Georgia having visits with the Bills. Seven other schools had two players meet with Buffalo. Realistically, the schools in isolation reveal pretty much nothing with this year’s data. So let’s move on to position data.
This graphic shows the number of unique players per position the Bills have visited with and there’s a clear spike at wide receiver, with 10 players making the list. No other position group has more than six, unless you lump all linebacker positions together to make seven; or add nose tackle into the defensive tackle grouping. If we lump OLB with EDGE instead though, you might be able to argue that the Bills aren’t really looking for that EDGE/OLB position.
The clear trend from this graphic is that Buffalo is searching hard for a wide receiver, followed by a desire for defensive help. The defensive help seems to be looking everywhere except for the aforementioned pass-rush positions. Safeties and corners both have a count of six, meaning defensive backs will be a priority. Linebacker and defensive tackles seem like they will be too. Like I said, everything but EDGE/OLB. Time for another chart.
This is the same idea, except a player visiting with the Bills more than once is counted more than once. To be specific, for this year players only can count once or twice. I don’t have any information that suggests anyone met with Buffalo three or more times. Seven players had two visits.
This doesn’t change a ton, but reinforces the wide receiver leaning. Defensive tackles take the lead for defensive positions and corners ever so slightly gain a little more priority than safeties, but not likely anything significant. There’s still no reason to think that the EDGE/OLB spot is a focal point, and the zero running back visits continues unabated.
Time for picks
To stay faithful to the model, I have to pick wide receiver, right? That said, tiebreakers are going to be tough with no players meeting with Buffalo more than twice. Making it even harder, only two receivers met with Buffalo twice. K.C. Concepcion out of Texas A&M, and Malik Benson, from Oregon. The premise of this exercise is that time and limited resources like top 30 visits are valuable and an indicator of interest.
I bring this up, because I’ve toyed with the idea of a “weighted” visit tracker for years. Something like local visits counting as 0.25 visits and Top 30 visits counting as 2.0 visits or something similar like that. The middle type of visits make it tough though. Is a virtual visit worth more or less than a local? Is a combine visit our base of 1.0? Where do private workouts and pro days fit in? Anyway…
I didn’t weight the visits this year but Benson did not have a top 30 visit. While he did meet with the Bills twice, it was a pro day and a private workout. Is that more or less significant than Chris Bell out of Lousville? Bell is the only other receiver to have a top 30 visit.
I swear that I don’t look up draft projections before I do these, but I do have to take a peek in order to make sure the analytics aren’t haywire. Here’s a good example of that to be fair. I question the data a bit on Malik Benson and pundits have him as a possibility of a late round, but not shocking to go undrafted. Meanwhile, the other two players the data flags; Concepcion and Bell, are both being projected as late first/early second round picks. Right where Buffalo is picking.
Cutting to the chase, while I don’t love the data set this year there is a decently good fit with K.C. Concepcion being a wide receiver (10 players met with for 12 visits), meeting with Buffalo twice (tied for most), and being one of only two players at the position having a top 30 visit with Buffalo. So…
Official Picks
K.C. Concepcion is the analytics-based pick for this year. Below is some extra picks/thoughts I have for this year, some of which sounds like me hedging my bets. Make no mistake, Concepcion is locked in as my official pick and the thoughts below that might go against that should be considered less “great job Skare” if they happen than the Concepcion pick.
- I think the defensive tackle buzz is real. Christen Miller (Georgia) is also projected to go around the time the Bills will be on the clock and met with Buffalo for a top 30 and a combine visit. Interestingly, Georgia did have the most player visits for Buffalo this year with three (yeah, not a ton I know). The Bills met with two other defenders from Georgia, players that should know him well. Adding it all up and Miller would also have been a good pick for my official, but the WR buzz means Miller is at best Plan B. If they take Miller first and Concepcion is still on the board I wouldn’t be shocked, but remember I can’t take full credit in that scenario.
- Maybe they hope Miller will fall, or maybe the projection of Gracen Halton (Oklahoma) lasting into the second round is one Buffalo is hoping will come to fruition. The defensive tackle also met with Buffalo twice and there could be some smoke here.
- As noted, a defensive back is likely a priority but this could be Buffalo simply casting a wide net. Only one player met with them more than once, and that player is Andre Fuller, who is expected to be picked on Day Three of the draft. I think they’ll pick a defensive back or two, but your guess is as good as mine. Fuller is likely a legitimate target but might be more of a case of “If you fall to [late round], you’re coming to Buffalo.”
- Meeting two punters is really weird. I think there’s some real smoke here too, but will it be a final round selection or an undrafted free agent pickup?
- Aside from wide receiver, don’t expect much on offense.
