The ninth pick in the NBA Draft is quite the interesting place to be. When you look back at the past 25 to 30 years, the swings between “complete flame out” and “Hall of Famer” are quite volatile. Dirk Nowitzki, Amar’e Stoudamire, Andre Iguodala, DeMar Derozan and Kemba Walker were all selected at the ninth pick. In that same span, Rodney White, Mike Sweetney, Ike Diogu and Pat O’Bryant were all picked. Volatile is an understatement!
In recent years as teams have refined the draft process, the swings
have gotten a bit less dramatic. With that in mind, let’s look back specifically at the last ten NBA Drafts to see if we can find any trends that could help us see what the Dallas Mavericks could be doing in this draft.
Flame outs
2017: Dennis Smith Jr. (Dallas Mavericks)
2018: Kevin Knox II (New York Knicks)
2022: Jeremy Sochan (San Antonio Spurs)
It doesn’t take an incompetent organization to miss on a pick, as evidenced by the Spurs missing on Sochan in 2022. Jalen Williams and Jalen Duren were taken just a couple picks after the Spurs took Sochan at ninth. Others taken after that pick include Tari Eason (17th), Christian Braun (21st), Walker Kessler (22nd) and Andrew Nembhard (31st).
In the case of the Mavericks and Knicks, I think it’s fair to classify those front offices as incompetent. But even then with DSJ and Dallas, it seems like he was doomed due to coaching, which is unfortunate. However, organizations can make their own luck here, and the all three of these failed to with their picks.
Jury is still out
2023: Taylor Hendricks (Utah Jazz)
I think Hendricks has the potential to be a good pro. Obviously, his career was thrown for a loop after he suffered that awful leg injury in Dallas a couple of years ago, but Hendricks is a talented player who could thrive in the correct system.
Stars in their role
2016: Jakob Poeltl (Toronto Raptors)
2019: Rui Hachimura (Washington Wizards)
2021: Davion Mitchell (Sacramento Kings)
The interesting parallel here is that only one of the three here, Poeltl, is making an impact for the team that drafted him. And even Poeltl was shipped off early on in his career before finding his way back. That’s why it’s important to do the scouting on all of the guys in this range, because you never know if eventually, you’ll be the place where the player shines brightest.
All-star ceiling
2020: Deni Avdija (Washington Wizards)
2024: Zach Edey (Memphis Grizzlies)
2025: Collin Murray-Boyles (Toronto Raptors)
Deni is the only All-Star to come from the ninth pick since Andre Drummond, who was drafted in 2012. That being said, even in consensus weaker classes in 2024 and 2025, the ninth pick has panned out well. Edey, when healthy, has been a force for Memphis. Murray-Boyles was Toronto’s third best player in their seven-game battle against the Cavs this postseason.
Tally it all up, and there’s truly nothing off the table with this pick. Which makes it all the more interesting as we turn to our friends at the FanDuel Sportsbook to see who is favored to be selected ninth overall.
What do you think about the options who could be available? Let us know in the comments!
