If you think you’re watching a different Syracuse Orange men’s basketball team than the one that you saw in November and December, it’s because you are. Its strengths and weaknesses are different from the ones that led to the up-and-down results of the first two months.
When ACC play started on December 31 against Clemson and Donnie Freeman returned to the rotation from injury, Syracuse was 76th in KenPom. Today, it ranks 69th, but is still just 4-6 in league play.
Through the first two months of the campaign,
SU’s calling card was its defense, and particularly, its interior defense. It ranked 42nd in adjusted defensive efficiency on Bart Torvik from the start of the season through its final non-conference game against Stonehill, holding opponents to just 42.3% inside the arc, the fourth-best mark in the country.
William Kyle’s block rate ranked tops in all of high-major basketball among players who played at least 60% of their team’s minutes during that stretch. His was 12.3, second place was 9.5. He is just eighth in that statistic since ACC play started, dropping down to 7.1 percent.
The Orange rim defense has become a major pain point over the last month. Teams are shooting a ridiculous 74.5% at the rim against Syracuse since ACC play started, per CBB Analytics.
SU allowed at least 40 points at the rim in games against Clemson, Miami, and NC State, per Synergy, after only allowing that number once in non-conference play – Iowa State. The Orange allowed 21 dunks in non-conference play, but have allowed 22 in just the last four games, including a whopping eight against NC State.
Since December 31, Syracuse ranks 289th nationally in 2P% defense. That’s not the only facet of the defense that has changed though. The Orange were forcing the 24th-highest turnover rate through its non-conference slate, but is just 235th in that metric since then.
All in all, SU’s defense has ranked 53 spots lower in ACC play than it did in non-conference play in adjusted efficiency, per Torvik. Yes, the rising competition levels play a role in this drastic drop-off, but even then, Syracuse held Houston to 33% inside the arc and turned both Tennessee and Kansas over at rates over 23%.
The team’s defensive rim and three rate (percentage of shots that are taken either at the rim or from three) is still one of the top marks in the sport. The Orange are still forcing a lot of mid-range shots and non-rim paint shots, but like the rim attempts, the non-rim paint shots have been going in much more, rising from 30 to 44%.
On the offensive side of the ball, Syracuse has actually improved from where it was in non-conference play thanks to a swing in three-point rate.
SU ranked near the bottom nationally in three-point shooting in the first two months of the season, but as Nate Kingz has become more consistent, Syracuse has risen up the ranks.
Syracuse has gotten flamethrower performances out of Kingz (5-6 against Boston College, 5-10 against Notre Dame) and Tyler Betsey (6-8 against Florida State) during ACC play, and the two are a combined 40-84 from beyond the arc in the league. The pair needed 38 more three-point attempts in non-conference play to reach that same number of made triples.
Additionally, Freeman has taken more threes in ACC play than anybody aside from Kingz, and is actually shooting 36% from deep since returning. He took just 4% of Syracuse’s triples in non-league play, as he missed most of those games, but has taken 18.5% of the attempts in conference play.
One of the major issues for Syracuse in the early part of the season, free throw shooting, has been much better, although still not good, in ACC play. SU is 14th in the ACC in FT%, but 70.4% is a far cry from the mid-50’s.
Part of that stems from who is getting to the line. Freeman – as a result of having the ball in his hands a ton and attacking the basket – leads the team with 54 free throw attempts in league play, and has made 80% of them. William Kyle’s free throw rate has dropped from 86.8 to 43.1, Sadiq White’s has dropped from 37.8 to 12.9, and JJ Starling’s has dropped from 26.1 to 18.6. Syracuse is making more of its free throws, but is also getting to the line significantly less often as a virtue of the way the offense is being played.
Also notably, the Orange went from 85th nationally in offensive turnover rate to dropping outside of the top 200 since league play started. Naithan George’s turnover rate has gone from 24.2 to 27.1, which isn’t a massive jump, but it’s definitely notable. Kyle and Freeman have also seen their turnover rates jump by about 4% from non-conference to conference play, while Tyler Betsey has seen a drop in usage, but an uptick in turnover rate.
So what does any of this mean?
If the Orange had this level of offensive production in non-conference play, would they be in a significantly different spot? I’m not sure. And if the team is able to bring back its high level defensive performances, would they be able to make a run late in ACC play? If it walks like a mediocre team and talks like a mediocre team, it might just be a mediocre team.
