Good…afternoon TSFers! My apologies for the delay on CF, I got wrapped up in something and was very late sitting down at my desk. The rubber meets the road today in the World Cup with MD2 getting underway. We’ll see what adjustments managers make, who bounces back from subpar performances, whether the surprise nations can keep up the unexpected, and so on with all that good stuff.
I hadn’t thought about it much, but the expanded format means that we are likely to see more countries book a place in
the knockouts after two matches because two wins (6 points) guarantees a place in the next round in the expanded format. In the previous format, while six points was extremely likely to get you through, it was not a guarantee because a group could finish with three teams on six points. Five points also guarantees a spot in the next round, but you can’t get to five points through two matches.
Coming into the tournament, i.e. on strictly mathematical terms, four points gets you through 99.8% of the time. To my surprise, three points was sufficient 66.6% of the time. I’m sure that those percentages have changed based on the results from MD1, but I’ve not seen anybody run the numbers.
Today’s matches, points totals next to country names:
Czechia (0) vs. South Africa (0), 12 pm ET, FOX – Group A
Switzerland (1) vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina (1), 3 pm ET, FOX – Group B
Canada (1) vs. Qatar (1), 6 pm ET, FS1 – Group B
Mexico (3) vs. South Korea (3), 9 pm ET, FS1 – Group A
I was only able to watch the England match yesterday, so I don’t have my usual summary analysis of the other matches. All I watched were the highlights.
Portugal 1 – DR Congo 1
Joao Neves scored in the 6th minute to give Portugal an early lead. Yoanne Wissa scored DR Congo’s first World Cup goal in the 45th+5 minute to even the score. Folks who watched the game said Cristiano Ronaldo really wasn’t up for it. Coming into the tournament, some analysts suggested Portugal were likely better off without CR7 in the starting lineup. DR Congo has a fair number of familiar PL names – they could be sneaky.
England 4 – Croatia 2
An impressive performance from the Brits. The scoreline flatters Croatia a bit, too. It was one-way traffic for most of the match, and both Croatian goals were against the run of play. Not to take anything away from what were two lovely goals, but England’s defense, to use a computer term, stopped responding on those sequences. Really strange, poor play from guys who really should do better.
Harry Kane’s brace ties him with Gary Lineker for the most World Cup goals for England all-time. Jude Bellingham, who was excellent, scored a marvelous goal just after halftime. Marcus Rashford added one late off the bench with a tidy cutback and finish into the bottom corner. Rashford’s goal was created by Bukayo Saka beating his man up the touchline, sticking with the play to pick up a loose ball, and finding Rashford in space on the opposite side of the field. Noni Madueke was excellent. His pace, dribbling, and direct play is well-suited to the England setup. Declan Rice had a solid game. He didn’t have any standout moments in large part because he didn’t have to.
Ghana 1 – Panama 0
Caleb Yirenkyi scored the winner and only goal of the match in the 95th minute to snatch the points for Ghana. It seemed a fairly even match. Panama had more of the ball but Ghana’s attack looked more threatening.
Colombia 3 – Uzbekistan 1
Daniel Munoz opened the scoring in the first half for Colombia. Luis Diaz, who scored the eventual game-winner in the second half, assisted Munoz’s goal. In between, Abbosbek Fayzullaev scored Uzbekistan’s first goal at a World Cup. Jaminton Campaz added a late tally for Colombia.
