Hello, Chicago Bears fans! We are deep into July and on the cusp of training camp, and the infusion of optimism and hope that this time of year brings to all NFL fans. So, before all that, let me take a moment to consider the glass-half-empty scenario.
As a Bears fan, I know you’re familiar with this. As recently as 2019, coming off of a season where our new, offense-guru head coach had won Coach of the Year, in which our young and promising QB had earned Pro Bowl alternate honors, and in which the team
won 12 games in the regular season and had our first playoff game since 2010 (the less said about that game, the better), optimism was at an all-time high. We went confidently into that first game of the 2019 season against the Green Bay Packers…and then it all went sideways. Our QB and head coach both turned back into pumpkins. The vaunted defense was hurt and not nearly as effective as it had been. And the Bears limped to an 8-8 season and a third-place finish in the NFC North.
We’d eventually fire that head coach and let the QB go in free agency. Another reset. Well, I’m not here to paint a scenario that gloomy. But I am going to look at five ways the 2026-2027 NFL season for the Chicago Bears could go terribly, terribly wrong. Let’s get going, shall we?
#5 Injuries at Key Positions Derail the Season
Of the five scenarios I consider here, this one is the most probable. Injuries happen. With NFL depth at an all-time low, and NFL schemes dependent on specialists more than ever, it doesn’t take many key injuries to ruin a team’s season prospects. Obviously, the most important player to stay healthy is Caleb Williams. While he has been very healthy to start his career, he did miss several games during his collegiate career. An extended absence would mean relying on Tyson Bagent, and as optimistic as we might be about his ability, he is no Caleb Williams. But what if Joe Thuney gets hurt? What happens to the Bears’ offense if Luther Burden misses extended time? And I don’t have to remind you that our vaunted secondary players mostly missed the 2026 season with injuries. It would not take too many injuries to the wrong players before this Chicago Bears team was hobbled, with only rookies and career backups to fill the void.
#4 No Bears Wide Receiver Steps up to Fill the Shoes of DJ Moore
We were all relatively pleased when the Bears were able to get a 2nd round draft pick in the trade for DJ Moore. After all, DJ Moore’s production had greatly fallen off, so much that many suggested he was just the 4th receiver in the Bears’ wide receiver room. But I encourage you to go back and watch those wonderful highlights from the 2025 season. And pay attention to how many times it was DJ Moore on the other end of that Caleb Williams connection. The touchdown catch to beat the Packers in overtime during the regular season? DJ Moore. The go-ahead touchdown catch to beat the Packers in the playoffs? DJ Moore. Moore was clutch for the Chicago Bears last year, all the while being asked by Ben Johnson to be his Swiss Army Knife on offense. What’s more, Moore brought a veteran presence to the wide receiver room. Now? The Bears are led at wide receiver by Rome Odunze (3rd season) and Luther Burden (2nd season). The Bears took a wide receiver in the 3rd round, who they might envision taking over Moore’s snaps, but he was over 100 spots above the consensus board. What if none of these guys step up and take the leadership role DJ Moore occupied on this team? Hard to see the Bears in the playoff picture if neither Burden nor Odunze steps up and becomes a #1 wide receiver for this team.
#3 The Defensive Line is Just as Bad as it was in 2026
The Chicago Bears’ defensive line was bad at pressuring the quarterback in the 2025 season. On the other hand, the defensive line was very bad at stopping the run. So, we’ve got that going for us. Ryan Poles chose not to make a major addition to the Bears’ defensive line this offseason, likely hamstrung in such efforts by the large contracts doled out the previous season to Grady Jarrett and Dayo Odeyingbo. The only real addition beyond the churn at the bottom end of the roster was Neville Gallimore. Neville Gallimore earned a 56.6 overall PFF defensive grade in 2025, ranking 77th out of 134 qualified interior defensive linemen. His ranking against the run was below 50. Somehow, I’m having difficulty seeing him as the savior. Sure, the Bears may see Austin Booker take a big leap forward, but the fact is, the interior of the Bears’ defensive line is the weakest group on the team. They were downright awful last season, and if they are downright awful this season, they may sabotage the Bears’ efforts to make the playoffs in consecutive seasons.
#2 The NFL Figures Out Ben Johnson
Oh, how the legacy of Matt Nagy nags at me as I contemplate the prospects of the Chicago Bears (see what I did there?). Nagy came in, guns blazing, with the endorsement of one of the greatest offensive coaches in NFL history, Andy Reid, with experience calling plays for Pat Mahomes, and in that first season, he looked every bit the part of a top offensive head coach. He gave us plays like “Santa’s Sleigh,” “Willie Wonka,” and “Papa Bear” – innovative plays that befuddled NFL defenses. By the end, Nagy became infamous for saying things like “I didn’t come here to run the I-Formation” and an offense where defenses sat on the excessive number of hook patterns he called. Maybe even Andy Reid got his fill of Nagy, as his contract was allowed to run out, and he jumped to the NY Giants. What if that’s what happens to Ben Johnson? Now, I think there are a number of reasons to think Johnson will not be Nagy. First, his track record as an elite offensive coordinator is unquestioned – three seasons with the Lions deploying top offenses where he was the sole play caller (unlike Nagy, who was only permitted play calling duties intermittently). The 2018 Bears succeeded more because of their defense than anything, and that defense masked some of the deficiencies in Mitch Trubisky and Matt Nagy. Not so for Ben Johnson – the Bears offense carried the team into the playoffs. That said, the NFL is constantly evolving and changing. What worked yesterday won’t necessarily work today. Andy Reid and Pat Mahomes were unstoppable – until they weren’t. In fact, one of the overlooked stories of the last couple of years in the NFL is that the Chiefs offense has been fairly middling, at least compared to their reputation as a top 5 NFL offense. In fact, the Chiefs were 11th in EPA/Play the last three seasons. Still good – but far from the days when Pat Mahomes was posting 40+ touchdowns a season. Could a play-calling regression happen to Ben Johnson? Yes. And if it does, the Chicago Bears are in trouble.
#1 Caleb Fails to Build on 2026 and Regresses in Key Metrics
If I’m honest with myself, this is the one I fear the most. Perhaps it is PTSD from being a Chicago Bears fan for forty years and watching all of our hopes in young quarterbacks repeatedly dashed. Perhaps it is the memory of Mitch Trubisky, and watching him tumble and fall into permanent backup status. Perhaps it is all the talk about Caleb’s below-average completion percentage, or the EPA graphs that constantly rate him as a below-average quarterback. Perhaps I’m being overly influenced by Mark Schlereth:
What if Caleb’s elite sack and interception avoidance regresses? What if his completion percentage remains mired in the upper fifties? What if he makes no progress in “playing on schedule” and “taking the layups” and sabotages the Bears’ offensive prospects with too many high-risk decisions? What if Caleb isn’t on the road to Josh Allen and Pat Mahomes, but rather on the path of the many more instances of a young quarterback flaming out at the position? The fact is, if Caleb Williams does not continue to grow and develop, if he does not take a step forward, if he, in fact, takes a step back, well, that’s the very definition of how it could all go wrong. And the Bears would not only miss the playoffs this season, but the entire rebuild would be in question.
So, those are five ways I can see it all going wrong for the Chicago Bears. What do you think about these scenarios? Are there other ways it could all go wrong for the Bears this season? Tell us in the comments below!
