The North Carolina Tar Heels travel to Orlando for the team’s second game against a Big 12 opponent this season. Saturday will be UCF’s first game this season against a Power Four program.
Saturday afternoon’s game will reveal much about both squads. For Carolina, which parts of their game have actually improved, and which looked good on paper due to the quality of opponents the past two weeks?
A seven-point win over Jacksonville State and a blowout victory over North Carolina A&T do not provide much
insight into the team UCF is, or can be.
Needless to say, this is a critical game for both teams in the final week before conference play. Here are three key factors to watch when the Tar Heels take on the Knights.
All Eyes on Lopez
UNC quarterback Gio Lopez is still trying to find a rhythm in this offense.
On the bright side, Lopez had back-to-back games with 40 yards or more rushing. Against Richmond, he tallied his first rushing touchdown of the season, and two passing touchdowns to Jordan Shipp put Carolina’s top receiving target on the board for the first time this season.
But Lopez was just 10-18 with 119 yards. As evidenced by the final score of 41-6, UNC had the advantage in each phase of the game. Yet, Lopez continued to struggle in the passing game. From the eye test, Lopez just missed his receivers. And on a few occasions against the Spiders, those receivers were wide open.
Lopez had a 38.9 PFF passing grade, the lowest of his career. His previous low was 47.8 in an away game versus Appalachian State last season.
How much does this have to do with the play calls? If the gameplan is the limiting factor, let’s see the coaching staff release the reins on whatever is holding Lopez back, and let’s see what he can do.
It just feels like put-up-or-shut-up time for Lopez this week. Even if offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens is holding him back via conservative (or even head-scratching) playcalling, Lopez must hit his targets.
Defensive Improvements
Here’s the good news: UNC has not given up a touchdown since the 9:21 mark of the fourth quarter against TCU. Of course, the quality of the opponent must be considered, and there were certainly some moments against Charlotte that could have gone the other way.
But the defense still has to make the plays, no matter the opposing offense.
Last week versus Richmond, the defense was graded at 90.6, the highest team defense score in the PFF archives. The closest was a 90.4 grade against NC A&T in 2015.
Again, the quality of the opponent must be considered.
Let’s focus on the 90.7 tackling grade, another PFF team record. Carolina had 19 missed tackles versus TCU and seven against Charlotte. There were just two missed tackles versus Richmond.
How long have missed tackles been a thorn in the side of every Tar Heel fan?
The hope is that this improvement is fulfilling a promise of the coaching staff to focus on fundamentals, especially with the defensive minds of the Belichicks leading the team.
Everyone now gets to wait and see if the defense continues to improve or crashes into Earth against a P4 team.
Slowing Down UCF’s Run Game
With two games against C-USA and CAA opponents, it’s hard to know exactly what this UCF offense can do. This is compounded by the fact that Jacksonville State held UCF to 17 points in the season opener.
One reason for that low-scoring affair was that starting quarterback Cam Fancher was injured in that game. In three seasons with Marshall and FAU, Fancher threw for at least 1,500 each year and tallied a career high 2,162 yards with the Thundering Herd in 2023.
Fancher was cleared for practice this week, but UCF head coach Scott Frost has not yet named a starter for Saturday.
The known quantities for the Knights’ offense are running back Jaden Nixon and Myles Montgomery.
Alongside with quarterback Jacurri Brown, these players have over 100 rushing yards in two games, vaulting UCF to 20th in the nation in average rushing yards per game. The caveat, much like UNC, is the quality of UCF’s opponents. The Knights gained 356 yards on the ground against A&T, with Nixon and Brown each gaining over 100 yards on five or fewer carries.
Nevertheless, Carolina will be tested on the ground. These weapons in the run game provide UCF with options, even if there is uncertainty under center.
