Good afternoon everyone, it’s time to dive back into the mailbag and answer some of your questions. Remember to send in your questions for our weekly call by e-mail to pinstripealleyblog [at] gmail [dot] com.
The idiot that said, “Harper is coming” asks: Did you have only five teams at or above .500 in the American League on Memorial Day in your prediction before the season? And were the Rays, White Sox, and A’s three of those teams? We’re in Bizarro World!
It has been a wacky start for the standings
for sure, with many would-be contenders a bit underwater at this point and several teams that no one could have predicted in the mix. The Rays were an afterthought in the AL East, a near-unanimous pick for last place that didn’t get higher than a third-place mention or two in our staff predictions, and yet they’ve caused the Yankees plenty of grief already and hold a slight lead on them for the division crown. Chicago had a few more believers that they would at least get out of the cellar, but none that would push them farther than fourth (and certainly no one picked Detroit to be in the basement in their stead), and the A’s had made enough moves to warrant a similar vibe but the AL West as a whole has been abysmal allowing them into the conversation.
The strangest thing about this season’s results thus far is that everyone’s collective struggles have made it hard to outright rule out teams from a playoff push, despite many of them still sitting below .500. That’s not to say I’d have any confidence in those lower Wild Card slots — Toronto at least has the pedigree to deserve respect as the defending AL champs, but the mesh of teams sitting a few games below them all look uninspiring at best. This is the ideal scenario for a team like the Astros, who looked dead and buried under their injuries through the first month but noticed the rest of the league fail to fill in the grave, and now they’ve rattled off seven wins in their last 10 to sit 2.5 games out of the final Wild Card. I’d have more faith in the remainder of that core than I do in teams like the Twins or Orioles giving it a true shot, and despite their early success I still have my doubts about the A’s and ChiSox. The Rangers should be the team that could pull away from the pack, but Corey Seager’s been MIA even when he’s on the field this time around and the rest of that offense isn’t amounting to much. All in all, it’s a murky field that the Yankees are fortunate to stand apart from, but it also means that they’ll have to do some convincing to get any additions from their competitors as the trade deadline starts to come up on the horizon.
NYCKING asks: Over/Under 4.5 Yankees named to All-Star team?
Injury replacements and pitchers that’re unable to play in the game itself could change the calculus, but going off of initial roster sizes I think the Yankees will actually go over on this. Aaron Judge will be a lock as always, and Cam Schlittler has a shot to not only make the All-Star staff but start the game itself if he keeps pitching like he has. Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger also have strong odds to make the roster, but Max Fried’s injury will probably keep him shelved long enough to prevent him joining his teammates at the event.
The X-factor here is Jazz Chisholm Jr., who admittedly did not get off to a good start this season but rebounded well enough in May to get back to above-average offensively. The field at second base has not been strong in the American League, meaning Chisholm’s 1.4 fWAR actually leads the pack despite the slow beginning, and there’s no reason to doubt that he could continue to further the gap should he keep heating up with the temperature. That’s their best chance to do so, however, as they won’t be seeing any representatives from catcher or third base, and while José Caballero has done fine work for them he’ll probably fall short of an All-Star nomination. Perhaps Will Warren or Ryan Weathers could earn a nod near the end of the pitching staff, but that would be a long shot unless either one has a tremendous June to push their case forward.
treatycity asks: Humor me, I’m testing your love for Anthony Volpe. Lombard will likely be pressing for the shortstop job come 2027 spring training. Volpe and Cabby could be potential candidates for second base, if Chisholm Jr. doesn’t return, but they’ll have to earn the job. Much depends if Yankees sign Chisholm long term. What’s the max years/money you’d give to Chisholm?
Our own Jonathan Farrar wrote an excellent piece back in March breaking down the contract demand that Chisholm stated he was looking for during spring training, which was an eight-to-ten year, $300-350 million deal range. The numbers look gaudy on paper, but as Jonathan worked it out, there’s good reasons for the ranges that Jazz threw out back then — a $35 million AAV sits squarely around players like Cody Bellinger and Alex Bregman, contemporaries from the previous free agent pool that Chisholm has comparable offensive numbers to, while his younger age would warrant a longer deal than the five-year pacts both signed.
Perhaps his slow start will be weighed against him, perhaps he’ll hit well enough to make everyone forget about it in the second half. As it stands, FanGraphs projects him to get to around 3.2 fWAR which would be a low for his time in New York but still better than any of his outputs from his Miami days. The postseason could determine everything for him, as another cold October might cost him big bucks, but taking that out of the equation and focusing on what he provides throughout the 162 games of the regular season shows that he’s going to be worth a pretty penny. I think he’ll have to compromise in one area of his initial demands more significantly to secure a number closer to the other, meaning if he wants to get a good AAV in the area that Bellinger just got the most he could expect to get is six or seven years maximum. Does a seven-year, $210 million deal entice him enough to stay? That’s about where I’d hit my limit with Jazz as of right now, but that number’s flexible should he turn the burners on.
