We have seen so many heroic, ridiculously entertaining *but also mortifying Wins this season that it feels like one of those October teams that find ways to win… but in the regular season. Their record in extra innings is 6-1 and they are good in 1 run games. The offense is good at late-inning dramatics, not giving up, and hitting home runs when they need to. But one cannot rely on that to save games that are on the line that often! Sure Riley O’Brien is usually lights out but they’ve had to come
from behind a lot (and sometimes, like last night, he just doesn’t have it).
As far as them being like one of those teams in October that just finds ways to win, let’s pump the brakes on that. Let’s see if they can get that far with a below-replacement-level bullpen.
So far in 2026, the Cardinals bullpen has had just a few bright spots. Overall, they obviously must be doing something right, but that’s related to outperforming their expected value and relying on some airtight defense provided by talented young players like JJ Wetherholt, Masyn Winn, and our center fielders. Considering the fact that the St Louis bullpen is the worst of the not-dumpster fire by fWAR, it is a bit of a miracle the Cardinals are good in extra innings.
Is overusage due to a lackluster or even crappy starting rotation the culprit? Not really. The Cardinals are 20th in IP out of the ‘pen. Are we overrating Riley O’Brien, and we aren’t getting enough saves? No, absolutely not, St Louis has 17 saves, behind only San Diego and Tampa Bay in saves. The villain is the K/BB ratio, and several pitchers handily beating their FIP with their ERA:
- Gordon Graceffo roughly 3 points lower ERA as compared to FIP
- George Soriano 1.48 lower ERA/FIP
- JoJo Romero 1.28 lower ERA/FIP
You also see Graceffo doing a tightrope walk at a .157 BABIP against, with Soriano, Romero, and Bruihl well below league average in that area. But then you have Stanek and Svanson badly stung by BABIP against.
The only player above replacement level by fWAR has been Riley O’Brien who has been an elite closer, but even the best closers are not infallible, and he’s been faltering a bit lately, blowing some saves you think he would not have a lot of trouble with. But all in all he’s been the savior of the bullpen and without him it would be over -1 fWAR.
Bullpen usage has been divvied up well by Marmol with Gordon Graceffo shouldering the workload, and a core of Riley O’Brien, JoJo Romero, and Matt Svanson not far behind. Oli will also go to George Soriano, Justin Bruihl, and Ryne Stanek a lot. Innings usage is all pretty clustered together so far, so kudos on bullpen management and not using them too much.
What is wrong with the ‘pen? I alluded to it earlier. It’s the K/BB ratio, dummy.
Here is what Ryne Stanek and his 4 seamer are doing:
If Ryne Stanek striking mofos out? Yes, yes he is. He is elite in that dept. Is Ryne Stanek walking mofos? Yes, and at an alarming rate. Too close to a walked batter every inning at 7.65 BB/9. That said 50% ain’t too bad when it comes to the 4 seamer.
His sliders are hitting the zone 30% of the time! Jesus F nevermind:
Can it get any worse than that?? Yes! Stanek’s splitter is finding the zone 22% of the time:
It is rather difficult to watch, but some ridiculous potential is there. What pitch does he have control over? He’s really good at controlling his sinker, which finds the strike zone roughly 2/3 of the time.
Why bother? Stanek has swing and miss stuff. Batters swing and miss over 36% of the time, and the league average is around 25% of the time.
Thank you for attending my powerpoint presentation on Ryne Stanek.
When they do hit Stanek he’s getting hit HARD. But he also throws really hard. Remember, they’re not connecting with a lot of this stuff, but when they are he’s probably also walked someone, which compounds his failures.
Who is probably most like what we have actually seen, going forward? Riley O’Brien. His walk rate will likely increase, but I wouldn’t be alarmed by his recent struggles.
Guess he could improve his offspeed pitch? lol
What should Gordon Graceffo work on? His sinker is hitting the zone only 22% of the time!
He needs more control over his curveball and changeup too.
How about George Soriano? What is he good at? He has good control over his sinker, and last night his changeup was looking really good.
What does he need to improve on? His sweeper only finding the zone 28% of the time. I’ll skip the chart on that one, you get the idea.
One more thing, what about early season deserved scapegoat Matt Svanson?
Svanson cannot be trusted until he turns all this around, except for his fastball velocity, which is fine.
The bullpen repair could be to somehow reduce the terrible walk rates of Stanek, Svanson, Bruihl, and even Soriano. I would only expect Stanek, O’Brien, or maybe Svanson to strike out a batter. The bullpen’s overall strikeout rate ain’t good.
What is the bullpen good at? They are good at inducing the grounder, overall tied for 5th in MLB in GB%. Maybe the guys outside of O’Brien, Stanek, and Svanson can really focus more and more on pitch to contact and utilize that defense to save their own bullpen. That is a strength already. With fewer walks, it means more groundouts, hopefully. The Cardinals will probably shore up the bullpen somehow, especially if they continue to play contentious baseball.
Cardinals Pitching Big Picture
This will probably be difficult to read, but as you can see, there are about two, maybe two and a half red spots there, and too many blue spots. Graceffo is bringing home the wOBAcon and O’Brien looks fine by xwOBA. As a staff the expected batting average against is scary because of the exit velocity and hard hit %. This group will need to pitch to contact and reduce walks to stabilize the season. Otherwise we might have to be terrorized by wicked come from behind wins all season.
Thank you for listening to my TED talk.
1990
Part 1 (non-heavy metal version)
It took two weeks to even start fathoming the immense power of the year 1990 in music. A lot more albums started to come out by 1990, and more bands than ever is part of the reason why. But I get the sense that there was a bit of a fire catching in music culture by this point in history. Let’s take a look at what was groundbreaking at the time, because hey, I love music! And I’m just as into it as baseball. Ok, probably moreso, but anyway.
- The Jesus Lizard – ‘Head’ sure it’s a little bit creepy sounding but that’s part of the appeal… it’s also a perfect album, start to finish, all killer, no filler, and one of the great debuts of all time! And it’s just FUN to listen to. An absolute blast. It never gets old for me. One of the true great rock n roll bands but also channels uncanny punk energies and absorbs from a ton of other genres while sounding completely JL. How were they this good so quickly? They were in some other bands beforehand but wow.
- PRIMUS – ‘Frizzle Fry’ I could just as easily say many of the same things for Frizzle Fry and perhaps it is an even better album than ‘Head’ but I think I would go to this a little less often, it is however, pure genius. And nothing had really been done like this before. One of my soundtrack to teenage years albums, so it has been with me for a long while, and I still listen to it.
- Helmet – ‘Strap It On’ yet another envelope pushing, genre defying unique album from 1990, and a debut too! These three bands really got the 1990s off to quite a start. Nothing I mean nothing sounded like this and no other band quite got that Helmet sound right, not even Helmet itself after it lost its lineup heard here. Absolutely next level stuff, and my favorite Helmet release by far except perhaps for the Born Annoying collection of songs prior to this full-length debut by NYC’s Helmet.
- Sonic Youth – ‘Goo’ wanted to get this on the list even higher but the competitive nature of 1990 keeps Goo further down the list a bit. Not a super groundbreaking debut, but it is Sonic Youth absolutely perfecting their sound, and I go back and forth on this, Daydream Nation, and Washing Machine as my favorite SY.
- Skinny Puppy – ‘Too Dark Park’ Skinny Puppy takes it to the next level here and creates one of the absolute best industrial albums of all time, an absolute masterpiece and perfect album start to finish. Would rank higher, but definitely a special occasion listen! Perhaps the highest technical achievement on here, astonishing in scope and execution, most excellent listen.
- LOOP – ‘A Gilded Eternity’ what can I say, I truly love that Robert Hampson LOOP sound, a truly underrated and one of the best of the more forgotten bands. Cannot recommend enough if you like rock, garage, pscyhe, alternative, space rock, and shoegaze.
- Public Enemy – ‘Fear of a Black Planet’ the defining genre classic that still sounds fresh to this day, Public Enemy at their best. There is just something about the chemistry between the Bomb Squad production crew and the vocal rap duo of Chuck D and Flavor Flav. If I were less of a rocker and more of a hiphop head, this would be #1 probably. Another incredible technical achievement taking music into the future.
- Meat Beat Manifesto – ‘Armed Audio Warfare’ and ‘99%’ one of the most under-the-radar yet hugely influential bands ever dropped not one but two industrial meets punk and hiphop albums in one year. Both are super entertaining and fun to hear. Cyberpunk party music! More futuristic production genius taking things to the next level in 1990. Moved electronic music several steps into the future along with Public Enemy.
- Kiling Joke – ‘Extremities, Dirt, and Various Repressed Emotions’ I don’t know how I never heard this album before but before it’s all said and done I might move this WAY up the list, it’s just new to me. It might end up being my favorite Killing Joke album at the very least. So good!
- Living Colour – ‘Time’s Up’ I wore out a taped copy of this in high school and it still sounds so fresh and new to this day, one of the more underrated bands ever. Perfect album start to finish, yet again. 10/10 Vernon Reid is a guitar hero and Cory Glover is one of the best singers I have ever heard.
- Cocteau Twins – ‘Heaven Or Las Vegas’ the best Cocteau Twins? If I had to choose just one, yeah! Another masterpiece 10/10 album on the list! For fans of shoegaze, goth, alternative.
- Fugazi – ‘Repeater’ well you gotta have Fugazi – Repeater on the list somewhere, right? Amazing.
- A Tribe Called Quest – ‘People’s Instinctive Travels and the Paths of Rhythm’ and this is my #2 hiphop album from a year stacked with important genre defining albums in a blossoming year for the genre. Totally different from Public Enemy but also just as important, or moreso to many people. My brother would pick this one.
- Naked City – self-titled and ‘Torture Garden’ whether you prefer the more well known self titled album or the latter, pick your poison you can’t go wrong here. Like if you threw 10 genres into a blender and somehow arranged that perfectly as a genius level composer, this is what you have here. File under: jazz.
- Alice In Chains – ‘Facelift’ here we take the genius down a notch but don’t write off Facelift, it’s freakin awesome. Makes the list just for “We Die Young” and “Man In The Box” alone, it’s a good album start to finish but it starts so strong that it is a force to be reckoned with. Also, the missing link between hair metal and grunge, I would say. Storming into the 1990s right away is the Alice In Chains debut album! Helped define a decade of music to come.
- Horațiu Rădulescu – ‘Clepsydra; Astray’ some very weird, peculiar classical music bordering on the ambient/drone territories, I don’t know where to put it on the list so I’ll drop it right here, amazing genius. maybe I just needed to change things up for a second
- Zoviet France – ‘Look Into Me’ more abstract weirdness for you, and Zoviet France at their best…
- Herbert Distel – ‘La Stazione’ …and more in the same vein, check it out if you like dark instrumental soundtrack ish 20th century composer material. Haunting and beautiful in its own right.
- Ween – ‘God Ween Satan’ gotta get Ween’s debut on here! More weirdness from the year 1990.
- Frontline Assembly – ‘Caustic Grip’ very strong year for industrial music, and a key band to the genre just getting started… a really good album!
Ok that’s it for this week! Thanks for reading. I hope this improves our bullpen. 😉
