As opportunities open up because of the injuries piling up in Phoenix, it feels like the right time to talk honestly about Ryan Dunn. With opportunity comes evaluation, and with evaluation comes clarity. Sometimes it is about growth, sometimes about limitations, and sometimes about recalibrating expectations.
There has been plenty of chatter relative to his productivity. I am guilty of something that many are, and I’m rather vocal about it. I want more from Ryan Dunn. The organization probably does
as well. The Suns do not control one of their own first round picks until 2032, and right now that pick is frozen (which might actually be a blessing). Still, the lack of flexibility in adding young talent places extra weight on the players already in the building. With limited avenues to inject youth and only so many paths available through summer transactions to regain draft capital, previous picks carry more pressure than usual.
That pressure largely comes from a fan base searching for long-term stability. Ryan Dunn has become a symbol of that urgency. And while some of it is earned, some of it might also be unfair.
I keep coming back to an earlier conversation this season about Oso Ighodaro and the expectations that come with him. He was the 40th overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. How much production can you reasonably expect from that slot? You can always want more, but history tells you that a player taken 40th is unlikely to become an All-NBA player. If he turns into a reliable rotation piece for multiple seasons, that is a win. Full stop.
Now apply that same lens to Ryan Dunn.
Drafted 28th overall by Phoenix in 2024, there were no mysteries about who he was coming out of Virginia. In two seasons as a Cavalier, he shot 23.5% from three with limited volume (12-of-51). Offense was never the selling point. Defense was. Instincts were. Length was. The hope was that those tools could eventually shape him into a three-and-D type. His ceiling, in the best version, might be All-Defense consideration. The more realistic goal mirrors Oso Ighodaro: a rotation player who sticks for a few years. A full-time starter feels ambitious, and that may be where expectations need to settle.
When you pull back and look at the 28th overall pick through the lens of NBA history, it becomes a grounding exercise. The back end of the first round does not reliably produce starters, and that reality is part of why draft capital is valued so differently across organizations. When teams trade for proven players, the return is often late first round picks, because the assumption is that the incoming player will improve the roster and push that pick further down the board. That devalues it by design.
Late first round picks also land in tough environments. Good teams picking there are usually good for a reason, and that means fewer developmental minutes, tighter rotations, and less patience. The goal at 28 is not to find a star. It is to find someone who can contribute in a rotation and stick.
Here is a look at who has been drafted 28th overall over the past decade:
- 2016: Skal Labissiere
- 2017: Tony Bradley
- 2018: Jacob Evans
- 2019: Jordan Poole
- 2020: Jaden McDaniels
- 2021: Jaden Springer
- 2022: Patrick Baldwin, Jr.
- 2023: Brice Sensabuagh
- 2024: Ryan Dunn
- 2025: Hugo Gonzalez
So when you zoom out, the best player drafted around that spot over the past decade is Jaden McDaniels from the 2020 draft. That was a class that was uniquely chaotic because scouting was limited and evaluations were incomplete. In many ways, he stands as the exception. He is a quality defender who has grown into an impactful two-way player. There is Jordan Pool as well and, before the Draymond Green haymaker, flashed microwave scoring potential.
If you look at the average production of the last nine players drafted at that spot, excluding last year’s selection of Hugo Gonzalez by Boston, the picture becomes clearer. On average, those players log 20.9 minutes, score 9.7 points, grab 3.3 rebounds, and dish out 1.8 assists. That is the baseline. And that is the reality Ryan Dunn should be measured against, whether it feels fair or not.
And it is worth noting that those averages are inflated. Jordan Poole alone bumps the scoring, averaging 16.7 points in 27.4 minutes for his career, and Jaden McDaniels sits at 10.9 points in 29 minutes. Even with that context, the takeaway holds. There is a path to finding a real rotation player at that spot in the draft. It happens. It is simply far less common than many people want to believe.
This feels like a necessary reset of expectations.
In Phoenix, we invested heavily in what Ryan Dunn could become. He was like a local band you see at the Crescent Ballroom, buy the t-shirt, and can’t wait for them to blow up. And that investment makes the present frustrating when he is not trending toward that vision. The sophomore season has shown signs of regression. The shot from beyond the arc has not progressed. Defensively, he looks unsure in space. Whether he is dealing with guards or wings, the confidence that once felt like his foundation appears to be slipping.
We want him to be better. Reality, though, is starting to suggest that this might be closer to who he is. In theory, that shifts the ask. Not an All-Defense ceiling. Not a prototype three-D wing. The expectation may need to settle on spot minutes, matchup-dependent usage, and rotational reliability. If he grows beyond that, then you celebrate it. Anything above that becomes surplus value, not the baseline demand.
For his development to continue, this needs to be embraced, not rushed past. The next four to six weeks, with Dillon Brooks sidelined, present a rare opportunity. He’s going to get the starter minutes, and it’s his chance to grow. This is a real inflection point in Ryan Dunn’s young career and an equally important evaluation window for the organization. This is the stretch where things can start to click, where Dunn can string together habits and trust his instincts again.
If it happens, he becomes an exception for players drafted around 28. If it doesn’t, well, he becomes another name on a list of players drafted 28th overall. This stretch doesn’t define his career, but it could shape his future.
I do have an ask. Ryan, please, slow down. You can feel the overthinking every time he is on the floor. Watching him in Summer League, the progression was clear. He played loose. He played confident. That confidence feels missing right now.
Ultimately, the desire for Ryan Dunn to “pop” is a symptom of Phoenix’s broader roster anxiety. But wanting a diamond doesn’t turn coal into one any faster. We are staring at the intersection of hope and historical probability, and usually, history wins.
If the shot remains broken and the defensive instincts continue to look more like hesitation than anticipation, we have to be prepared for the reality that the three-and-D archetype we’ve projected onto him might simply be a mirage. It is entirely possible that the flashes of brilliance we saw in Summer League weren’t a preview of a rising star, but rather the high-water mark of a player who found his ceiling earlier than we cared to admit.
If the next few weeks don’t yield a spark, we may have to stop waiting for a breakthrough and start accepting that at pick 28, sometimes what you see is exactly what you get.
