For starters, let me preface this by saying that much of what follows is conjecture. In all my years following this team, I can’t remember a time with this level of secrecy and confusion. It genuinely
feels like no one outside the Jets’ day-to-day operations has any real idea what’s going on. We’ve seen beat reporters tweet with confidence about things being settled, only to walk it back hours later. It’s a total mystery as to what is going on right now, but let’s take our best shot. On Tuesday, the Jets parted ways with offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand in a move that can really only be described as … confusing. The reaction has been swift and largely negative, and for good reason. With February fast approaching, the Jets now find themselves in the bizarre position of needing a new offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, and multiple position coaches. What makes it even more puzzling is … this is all while retaining the head coach. That’s not just unusual; it’s borderline unheard of. Let’s try to make some sense of this mess, because to borrow from Vince Lombardi: “What the hell is going on down there?”
Rationalizing The Tanner Engstrand Firing:
This situation has been confusing almost from the jump of the offseason. By all accounts, shortly after the season ended, Engstrand appeared safe. Then, more than a week ago, whispers started to emerge that while Engstrand was likely to remain on staff, it could be in a different role. This role would be one where his play-calling duties would be stripped. That alone is highly unusual. Now, more than a week later, the Jets have decided to part ways with Engstrand entirely. The obvious question remains: why?
On the surface, I’d argue that moving on from Engstrand is actually a positive. In fact, the level of support he’s received from parts of the fanbase has been puzzling, to say the least.
Engstrand entered this job as a very raw coaching candidate. Prior to this season, he had no experience calling plays at either the NFL level or the collegiate FBS level. His résumé was straightforward: he worked under Ben Johnson and Jim Harbaugh. He checked the familiar boxes: young, up-and-coming, and closely tied to one of the hottest offensive names in coaching circles. Yet, when Ben Johnson took over in Chicago, he didn’t poach Engstrand.
What Engstrand showed this season, in my mind, left a lot to be desired. I’m not going to argue that the personnel was good or that Engstrand was holding back an elite offense. But I also struggle to see what his supporters saw. At the end of the day, the Jets’ offense was bad. They finished 29th in EPA per play and 29th in offensive DVOA.
Many will point to Justin Fields and argue that Engstrand never really had a chance with him under center. I find that argument flawed as well, considering Engstrand was almost definitely involved in the decision to bring Fields in. What consistently confused me was how little Fields was utilized in the run game. When Fields struggled as a passer, it often felt like the Jets’ best chance of moving the ball was leaning into his running ability and size on the perimeter. Instead, Fields finished with the lowest rushing attempts per start of his career. The Jets took what is arguably his only true NFL-level strength and failed to maximize it.
But maybe that shouldn’t have been surprising….because Engstrand and Glenn effectively told us this was coming. Back in August, Engstrand said the following in a press conference:
“We’re always going to do what the players do best, what they excel at. But there are also things in our system that Justin may or may not have done before, or that I know he hasn’t done well, that we’re challenging him to do. So far, he’s shown he can do that.”
“I really like where Justin’s at right now with the dropback passing concepts. He understands what we’re trying to do, what we’re trying to attack, where the ball needs to go. I think every day we’re showing progress—from Justin, the other quarterbacks, and just everybody being on the same page in the passing game. So I think we’re good.”
For me, it’s very difficult to give Engstrand a pass based on how Fields performed this season. Just a year earlier, we saw a clearly flawed version of Fields post a QBR that was nine points higher, and it’s not like he was surrounded by stars in Pittsburgh. While Glenn and Mougey certainly shouldn’t be absolved of blame for how poorly the Justin Fields experiment went, I don’t view this as a situation where Engstrand should be either.
It’s possible that one day Engstrand develops into a significantly better play caller elsewhere in the league. But I don’t see this firing as shocking or unwarranted the way some do. A young coach with a thin résumé who struggled badly in Year 1 got fired. That happens all the time in the NFL.
Rationalizing The Tanner Engstrand Firing Timing:
Now this is the part that really puzzles me. Why did Glenn and the Jets wait three weeks to make this move? If Engstrand had been fired the day after the Bills game—as most organizations would have done—I think much of the blowback simply wouldn’t exist. It would’ve been a standard, run-of-the-mill decision: the play-caller for a bad offense gets fired.
Instead, the Jets have unnecessarily put themselves in a hole, for no obvious reason from the outside. That delay has only fueled speculation. Was this even Glenn’s call, or did Woody Johnson insert himself yet again? Was Engstrand initially on board with a demotion before deciding to move on? Did Glenn get word that another candidate became available, someone who would only come aboard if Engstrand was gone? Or did Glenn simply change his mind weeks later?
None of this is clear right now, and it doesn’t appear that anyone on the outside has real insight into what actually happened. We’ll likely get more clarity in the coming days. But for Aaron Glenn, someone who already seems to be barely surviving with this fanbase, this is hardly a move that inspires much confidence.
Rationalizing the Jets Preference For a Veteran OC:
This is an area where I think there’s been too much blowback. The Jets job, as it currently stands, is not appealing in the slightest. By all accounts, Aaron Glenn’s seat appears relatively hot, and it’s not exactly surprising that there isn’t a flood of candidates lining up to work under Woody Johnson.
The popular name being floated right now is Frank Reich. I don’t think anyone would be doing jumping jacks if the Jets hired the 64-year-old Reich, but it’s also clear they could do much worse. Reich has been out of the NFL for a little over two years—though he did spend this past season as Stanford’s interim head coach—and while the hire would likely be uninspiring, his offensive résumé is significantly stronger than what the Jets have had in recent years.
During his time as head coach of the Colts, Reich compiled a 40–33 record and called plays. From 2018 to 2022, the Colts’ offensive DVOA rankings were as follows:
- 2018: 7th
- 2019: 18th
- 2020: 10th
- 2021: 12th
- 2022: 32nd (fired after 9 games)
That body of work is still notably better than anything the Jets have produced in recent memory. And it’s not like Reich was working with a who’s who of quarterbacks. In 2018, he had Andrew Luck who is awesome. From 2019 through 2022, the Colts cycled through Jacoby Brissett, a 39-year-old Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan/Nick Foles. Despite the constant turnover, Reich consistently fielded at least average offenses for most of his tenure.
After the Colts stint, Reich the following year was fired in Carolina after 11 games, which came amid a disastrous start on a poor roster with an overmatched rookie quarterback in Bryce Young. Even then, Carolina never completely bottomed out offensively. Prior to his firing, the offense ranked in the low 20s in DVOA. Before that, Reich served as offensive coordinator for several strong offenses with the Eagles and Chargers, though he didn’t call plays in Philadelphia.
I’m not here to sell Reich as some home-run hire. But for a team that has repeatedly bottomed out offensively, bringing in a veteran play-caller with a proven track record of competence wouldn’t be the worst idea. And let’s be honest: unless Woody suddenly opens up his wallet, this job isn’t especially attractive right now. I don’t know if Reich will be the guy or if Glenn has his sights set on another veteran option, but the idea of the Jets bringing in a professional, steady hand to run the offense is far from the worst solution.
Rationalizing the Jets Defensive Search:
Here’s another example of just how little anyone seems to know about what’s happening behind the scenes. After a couple of quiet weeks following the season, the Jets announced they had interviewed eight candidates virtually for the defensive coordinator role. None of the beat reporters seemed to know anything about this. Then, a few days later, it appeared the Jets were narrowing in on Wink Martindale for an in-person interview, according to a few reporters. And now, just days later, it looks like Wink might be off the table, with Glenn possibly wanting a more hands-on approach himself.
I’m struggling to make sense of this. While most would not be thrilled about the Wink hire, he does have a history of orchestrating top-10 defenses (three of his four years in Baltimore from 2018 to 2021 saw him coordinate a top-six defense). His Giants stint ended poorly after one decent year, but Martindale has had modest success at Michigan over the past two seasons, with back-to-back top-15 defenses by SP+. Similar to the story with Reich, while Wink wouldn’t be the most home-run type hire it’s pretty clear this organization can do much much worse.
So the questions remain: Did Glenn and Wink clash on their defensive philosophy? Did Wink ask for more money than Woody was willing to pay? Did Glenn envision a different role for him? Was Wink ever even the frontrunner? No one seems to know.
On the surface, though, it’s mildly concerning that three weeks in, Glenn (who by all accounts is respected around the league) is having this much trouble finding someone to run his defense. You would think that Glenn would have had an idea of what direction he would want to go in when he made the decision to fire Steve Wilkes, something that happened almost 2 months ago.
Summary:
On the surface, Aaron Glenn’s decision to clean house with his staff makes sense. I’m not entirely opposed to bringing in veteran coaches on both sides of the ball, as long as they have a proven track record. As I mentioned earlier, a lot of the confusion and blowback could have been avoided if these moves had been made sooner. Mike McDaniel, for example, overhauled his offensive staff after just one year in Seattle, and it barely raised any eyebrows.
The bigger issue is that outsiders have almost no knowledge into what’s actually happening, which naturally makes many of us wonder if anyone inside truly does either. Things could turn around if Glenn makes smart hires, but, as is often the case in this league, the ultimate test will be whether the Jets can draft effectively and add impactful players in free agency.
For now, though, Glenn isn’t exactly inspiring confidence. At this point, he’s giving the fanbase little reason to think he shouldn’t be part of the overhaul as well.
