The San Francisco Giants have finally run into a team they’re hitting better than here through the season’s first couple of weeks. If you ignore the Yankees series, the Giants are actually around a league average offense (96 wRC+) in their last 13 games. Meanwhile, the Reds are the worst in the National League (76 wRC+). According to FanGraphs’ measure of WAR, they’ve been exactly replacement level (0.0) over their last 14 games. Does this mean the Giants have a great shot in this 3-game series at the Great
American Ball Park?
Sure. Anything’s possible.
They’ve also been a medicore pitching team, with a 4.10 ERA and 5.09 xERA. That’s because they have been walking hitters like crazy, to the tune of 5.04 per 9 innings over their last 125 innings. That’s the worst in the NL and fourth-worst in MLB. And yet, they’re 9-7 overall, with 5 of those wins coming on the road in Texas and Miami. They have a -16 run differential compared to the Giants -21. The Giants staff has walked hitters at too-high a rate as well, with a 4.18 BB/9 over their last 114 innings. That’s 21st in MLB and 10th in the NL.
On the full season — so, if we go back and include the Yankees series — the Reds have only outscored the Giants by 3 runs (54 to 51). They’re hitting as a team just .205/.298/.325 compared to the Giants’ .243/.288/.357. Their offensive leaders have been Elly De La Cruz (152 wRC+) and rookie Sal Stewart (178 wRC+). The only other player who comes close to league average (100 wRC+) is platoon bat Nathaniel Lowe (92 wRC+ in 23 PA).It’s a rough lineup here in the early going. The Giants counter that with Casey Schmitt (186 wRC+), Willy Adames (127), Matt Chapman (118), and Luis Arraez (106).
Rather than silo him in the players to watch section, I’ll talk about the Reds’ dynamic Elly De La Cruz right here, because he’s just 24 years old and is once again playing like an MVP-caliber player. He has 5 stolen based in his first 16 games of the season, an 11.1% walk rate and 27.8 strikeout rate. It’s doubtful he’ll sustain those rates through the season, but they’d both be career bests (his career averages: 9.5 BB% and 29.7 K%). He was projected to be a 4-to-5-WAR player and has already been worth 1.0 fWAR through the first 16 games of the season. That’s a 10-WAR pace. Also probably not sustainable, but worth mentioning here because he’s white hot right now.
The Great American Ball Park has been less a house of horrors here in the 2020s than it was in the 2010s when the Giants went 12-21. They’re 11-6 here in the 2020s and, as you’ll recall, the Giants got off to such a scintillating start last season because of the opening series in Cincinnati. A year later and the team feels considerably less surprising and brimming with possibilities, but who knows? Maybe another series win here will kick off a nice run of success. This series is a battle of old (the Giants) versus young (the Reds), with the Giants’ older lineup (28.9 on average) battling the Reds’ younger pitching staff (28.4) while the Reds’ young hitters (27.8) take on the Giants’ more veteran (30.2) staff.
Series overview
Who: San Francisco Giants (6-10) at Cincinnati Reds (9-7)
Where: Great American Ball Park| Cincinnati, Ohio
When: Monday & Tuesday at 3:40pm PT, Wednesday at 9:40am PT
National broadcasts: None.
Projected starters
Tuesday: Robbie Ray (LHP 2-1, 2.08 ERA) vs. Brady Singer (RHP 0-1, 7.71 ERA)
Wednesday: Tyler Mahle (RHP 0-2, 4.30 ERA) vs. Rhett Lowder (RHP 1-1, 3.31 ERA)
Thursday: Landen Roupp (RHP 2-1, 3.24 ERA) vs. Chase Burns (RHP 1-1, 3.31 ERA)
Players to watch
Reds
Sal Stewart: The 22-year old first baseman ended last season as the #3 prospect in the Reds’ system, according to MLB Pipeline. Indeed, the top three prospects from their system at the end of 2025 will be featured in this series, with Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder both scheduled to pitch.
He was a high school bat drafted in 2022 and, per Pipeline’s writeup:
Stewart’s advanced approach has been apparent from day one of his pro career. He carried a miniscule 15.7 percent career strikeout rate into the 2025 season and he’s walked as often as he’s struck out (138 BB vs. 139 Ks). He makes a lot of hard contact and can send line drives to all fields consistently against all kinds of pitching. Just 21 for all of this season [2025], he’s still learning to tap into his considerable raw power, with confidence it will come without him losing any of his hitability.
He hit 5 home runs in an 18-game cup of coffee last season (58) and slashed .255/.293/.545. He’s hitting .309/.435/.600 in the first 16 games and 69 plate appearances of this season. That includes 4 home runs, 4 doubles, and 13 walks against 10 strikeouts. No wonder Eno Sarris giddily selected his future over Bryce Eldridge’s when asked about it during the offseason.
Rhett Lowder: A sinker-slider-changeup guy whose fastball velocity (he does have a four-seamer, too) that sits in the 92-94 range. I’m thinking the right-handed Cade Povich, if you want a recent comparison to a Giants’ opponent. I’m interested to see how his 6.1 K/9 (though 3.74 FIP) plays against this Giants lineup. He missed all of 2025 with some elbow issues, but in 2024, he had a 1.17 ERA (3.10 FIP) in 6 starts (30.2 IP).
Eugenio Suarez: The veteran has yet to get it going in the early season with a .642 OPS through his first 16 games. He was a Red from 2015-2021 and since 2021 he’s his 163 home runs for 3 teams in 774 games. He has a career line of .244/.331/.516 with 15 home runs in 59 games and 245 PA against the Giants.
Giants
Jung Hoo Lee: Lee, like a lot of the Giants, got off to a fast start in Cincinnati last season, with a 3-for-10, a double, a stolen base, and a pair of walks in that season-opening series. He’s had a dismal start to 2026 (.185/.246/.315) and could really use a good series. Three right-handed starters in a park that favors hitters is a nice pairing of ingredients for a hitter.
Tyler Mahle: He was drafted by the Reds in the 7th round of the 2013 draft and spent his first 5 1/2 seasons with them, posting a 4.34 ERA in 117 starts. This will be the first time he’s ever faced his former team?! That seems impossible, so maybe I’m reading his Baseball Reference page wrong. Anyway, he has a career 5.02 ERA in 285.1 IP at the Great American Ball Park.
Patrick Bailey: Speaking of performance at GABP, the Giants catcher is just 1-for-27 in his career. That’s just 9 games, but it’s another strike against a backstop who certainly racks up strikes whenever he steps to the plate. There’s probably not a starting catcher controversy just yet, but we almost certainly figure to see Daniel Susac more often should Bailey’s bat maintain its sub zero temperature.
Tony Vitello watch
He’ll be going up against the legend Terry Francona, which might be interesting if the Giants are able to keep games close late. It’s not that the Great American Ball Park is Coors Field, but bullpen decisions will be important. Also, I wonder how much time Vitello has spent in Ohio. The Volunteers played Cincinnati, so maybe he’ll have a couple of old college stories to share during the media scrum.
Prediction time
The Giants might win a game in this series.
