The next Steph Curry. The next Steve Nash.
The next Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf…the next Brent Price.
The first Reed Sheppard – existentially speaking. He is not a Kevin O’Connor comparison – He is a solitary unit.
But what is he?
It seems like Rafael Stone has some lofty expectations. Rumors suggest that he sees Sheppard as a Nash-level talent. Stone publicly stated that this year, Sheppard made the Rockets’ offense better “whenever he was on the floor”.
Did he, though?
Rockets’ Reed Sheppard needs to grow
CleaningTheGlass says otherwise. The Rockets
were -0.1 points per 100 possessions (PPP) worse when Sheppard was on the floor.
That’s nothing to worry about. Sheppard was a sophomore, and he got precious few reps as a rookie. Still, there’s no reason for me (and every reason for Rafael Stone) to exaggerate.
As a pick-and-roll ball-handler, Sheppard was fine, generating 0.90 PPP in those sets (62.1st percentile).
(Side note: Writing about this team is getting depressing. It feels like whenever I find a playtype stat, the Rocket in question is in the 60-something-ith percentile. Victor Wembanyama is probably in the 90th percentile in most defensive metrics before he gets out of bed. Le sigh).
Anyway, that’s a competent mark for a sophomore. For context, Tyrese Haliburton was in just the 51.4th percentile in pick-and-roll PPP as a sophomore.
That felt good to type. Of course, Tyrese Maxey was in the 85.1st. Oh God, the demons in my head! Sorry. Realistically, player development is too varied to expect much linearity. The lesson here is that Sheppard still has a lot of developmental paths he can take.
That makes assuming the best just about as irrational as assuming the worst. If we were to assume the median (which is either more rational or equally irrational, it’s a hard call), Sheppard is likely Abdul-Rauf-ish, or Payton Pritchard, or someone in that general tier. That’s fine, but the cornerstone Stone seems to see.
How does Sheppard hit that level?
Sheppard must be an all-time shooter
As a rookie, Sheppard hit 33.8% of his 2.7 triples per night. As a sophomore, he connected on 39.8% of his 7.0. That’s a massive leap:
He needs to make another one.
There’s ample room for Sheppard to generally improve. He needs to tighten up his handle as well. Yet, almost paradoxically, we’re looking at a shooting specialist whose swing skill is his shooting.
Sheppard is dangerous, but he needs to be lethal. Defenses respect his shot, but they need to fear it. It needs to consume their thoughts like the Telltale Heart. It needs to be understood that a Sheppard three that’s anything less than tightly contested is a worst-case scenario for any defense.
If that were the case, Sheppard’s handle suddenly matters less. A simple pump fake should be enough to free him up. He’s also a smart enough passer to run point if – and only if – his shot is that type of nuclear-level event.
Put differently: Sheppard has sufficient point guard chops to exploit an overly aggressive defense. He doesn’t (at least, currently) have enough in his bag to break down defenses that are responding to him relatively normally. We’ll never see another Steph Curry, but Sheppard’s shooting gravity needs to have a similar geometry-warping impact on the game.
Defensively? This may be who he is. Sheppard is small, and he’s not getting much bigger. He gets the steals and the blocks, and he also gets picked on. It makes him a questionable fit with Alperen Sengun, but that’s another article. Nobody should rule out any developments at this juncture, but the Rockets should be preparing for a world where he’s a long-term defensive liability.
So…Nick Van Exel? Mark Price? Chauncy Billups? Am I just practicing the ancient masculine arts of naming old athletes? Perhaps.
The point is there: There’s a large margin between Steve Nash and Payton Pritchard. Where Sheppard lands within that (arbitrarily defined) binary will determine whether he’s a star or a role player. If he falls into the latter camp, he’s simply not a cornerstone player.
No matter what Rafael Stone thinks.
