The Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings face off in a game that has disappointingly low stakes. But On Paper lives on. I’ve previewed more than my fair share of “meaningless” football games, and I’m not
going to stop now, despite Detroit’s playoff odds nearing astronomical and the NFL trying to ruin the holiday season.
That said, this will be a slightly abridged version of On Paper, because I’m more than aware that many of you simply don’t care right now.
With that out of the way, here is our Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings statistical breakdown, preview, and prediction.
Lions pass offense (6th) vs. Vikings pass defense (5th)
If there’s one thing that should keep you optimistic about the Lions moving forward, it’s that their passing offense remains quite efficient, despite the recent loss of Sam LaPorta, the constant shuffling of the offensive line, and some serious struggles in the run game. Even against some strong defenses in recent weeks, the Lions have found some comfort moving the ball through the air.
For the season, they rank:
- Second in passer rating (109.4)
- Fifth in yards per attempt (7.9)
- Sixth in dropback EPA (0.187)
- Ninth in dropback success rate (48.7%)
Uh oh.
The Vikings’ pass defense is on an absolute tear right now, and it really started with their last game against the Lions. The return of edge defender Andrew Van Ginkel has been a huge help, but it also just seems like Minnesota has settled in very nicely.
For the season, they rank:
- Ninth in passer rating (88.2)
- 15th in yards per attempt (6.9)
- Third in dropback EPA (-0.058)
- Fourth in dropback success rate (42.6%)
But if we limit that to how they’ve performed since Week 10, they rank:
- Second in passer rating (68.2)
- Fifth in dropback EPA (-0.126)
- Eighth in dropback success rate (41.3%)
While the rankings have moved both up and down, the figures on each of those statistics have drastically improved recently. That’s trouble.
It’s worth noting the Vikings recently lost their best pass rusher in Jonathan Greenard, but he only had 3.0 of the Vikings’ 40 sacks (10th in the NFL) this season.
Player to watch: Van Ginkel. In just 10 games, Van Ginkel has 5.5 sacks, eight pass breakups, and one interception. In the previous matchups against the Lions, he has been an absolute terror for Detroit.
Advantage: Draw. This is the only strength vs. strength matchup of the game, and I can see it going either way. In the past, Jared Goff has been very good against Brian Flores’ defense, but the 2025 matchup was a lot more uneven than the stats suggest, and it brings into question whether Goff has been the key to producing against Flores or if it was a guy like Frank Ragnow (or Ben Johnson) all along.
Lions run offense (7th) vs. Vikings run defense (15th)
All year, I have been warning that the Lions’ lack of true rushing efficiency was being masked by some intermittent explosive plays from Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Now, the veil has been lifted. They’ve been an absolute disaster over the past two weeks, and in just about every loss this year, Detroit has had a huge problem running the ball. These struggles are pretty much only captured in success rate, as the explosive plays drive up yards per carry and EPA numbers:
- Sixth in yards per carry (4.8)
- 10th in rush EPA (0.023)
- 21st in rush success rate (40.1%)
Hard to blame the backs, who are dealing with the 10th-highest stuffed rate (16.9%) due to a leaky interior offensive line.
There’s a bit of an opening here for Detroit. The Vikings have allowed over 100 rushing yards in seven straight games, although those were all against some pretty strong rushing attacks. They’ve generally kept those teams close to their season averages in yards per carry, but I wouldn’t necessarily call those effective games. The one part that is scary, though, is the previous matchup, where the Vikings completely shut down Gibbs (nine rushes, 25 yards) and Montgomery (11 carries, 40 yards).
For the year, the Vikings rank:
- Ninth in yards per carry (4.1)
- 23rd in rush EPA (-0.039)
- 21st in success rate (42.4%)
Unfortunately for Detroit, while the Vikings are below average in terms of success rate, they aren’t particularly susceptible to long runs. They’ve allowed just six rushes of 20+ yards this year (t-seventh fewest) and only one of 30+ yards.
Player to watch: Jalen Redmond. The Vikings’ 2025 breakout defensive tackle has been a force up the middle of the defense. He’s posted a 72.8 PFF run defense grade, eighth best among all defensive tackles. Against a Lions’ interior offensive line that has struggled at pretty much everything, he’s a terrible matchup for Detroit.
Advantage: Vikings +1. Maybe I’m overreacting to recent trends, but my confidence in this Lions rushing attack is lower than it’s been in several years. It’s only gotten worse since the previous Vikings game, and with this one being on the road in a loud environment, I don’t have any reason to believe it will go any better this time around.
Vikings pass offense (28th) vs. Lions pass defense (7th)
The Vikings’ passing attack has been an absolute disaster this year. J.J. McCarthy has both posted some of the worst statistics ever for a young quarterback, and he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Admittedly, it looked like he was turning things around about the Commanders and Cowboys, but those are two of the worst defenses in football, but it doesn’t matter anyway, because McCarthy is injured and the Vikings will be turning to rookie quarterback Max Brosmer this week.
For the season, the Vikings rank:
- 31st in passer rating (74.7)
- 23rd in yards per attempt (6.7)
- 29th in dropback EPA (-0.107)
- 22nd in success rate (43.6%)
The injuries along the offensive line haven’t helped, and in this game, the Vikings will be without starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw, almost certainly be missing center Ryan Kelly, and could be missing right tackle Brian O’Neill. Also, tight end T.J. Hockenson is trending towards being out, as well.
Detroit’s pass defense is also in a downward spiral. After some strong early performances, it’s hard to find the silver lining as of late. Granted, they’ve played some really tough passing attacks, but even last week’s game against a bland Steelers pass offense was a pretty massive disappointment.
For the season, the Lions rank:
- 18th in passer rating allowed (93.8)
- 25th in yards per attempt (7.4)
- 16th in dropback EPA (0.069)
- Eighth in dropback success rate (43.8%)
There’s still some hope if the Lions can somehow find a way to limit explosive plays, but that’s been a season-long problem, and I’m not sure they’ll find the solution against Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison this week.
Player to watch: Jefferson. It’s been an odd, down year for Jefferson, who is averaging just 61.1 yards per game—well below his career average of 90.8. But going up against a questionable man-coverage defense may be just the elixir for his woes.
Advantage: Lions +1. Yeah, I’m still going to give the advantage to the Lions here. There’s this odd narrative that McCarthy was dominant against Detroit in the previous matchup, but that really wasn’t true. Yes, he made a couple of big throws in that game, but he managed a paltry 5.7 yards per attempt and 116 net passing yards after Detroit’s five sacks. With Brosmer in the game this week, it may be even worse for the Vikings.
Vikings run offense (17th) vs. Lions run defense (17th)
Minnesota has dealt with injuries to both the backfield and the offensive line, and it’s resulted in a pretty mediocre rushing attack all season. They’ve rushed for over 150 yards in just two games all season, and it came against the worst defenses they’ve faced in 2025. But some of that has simply been due to the game script. They’re constantly falling behind, which has led to just 351 rushing attempts all season—the fifth-fewest in the league.
Their efficiency metrics fall closer to average than terrible:
- 4.4 yards per carry (15th)
- -0.070 rush EPA (22nd)
- 44.5% rush success rate (sixth)
Don’t expect many explosive plays from this rushing attack, but they’re capable of moving the ball a little. Although they are also trending toward missing their primary back, Jordan Mason, in this game.
What has been an above-average run defense for most of the year has been a downright disaster in the past two weeks. The question that remains is whether those performances are outliers or a current trend towards disaster.
There are two salient explanations for their recent struggles. For one, both the Rams and Steelers operate out of a ton of 13 personnel and jumbo formations, something Detroit hasn’t seen a lot of. It’s clear they’ve had some poor discipline in those looks that may simply require more reps. Additionally, the Lions have admitted to spending more resources on eliminating big plays through the air, and that has come at the expense of extra men in the box.
The good news is the Vikings don’t utilize a ton of heavy sets. They’re 18th in 12 personnel usage frequency and 21st in 13 personnel, and fall right around average in efficiency in those formations.
Player to watch: Jack Campbell. He’s a beast, and I’m happy he made the Pro Bowl.
Advantage: Lions +1. I’m taking a stab in the dark here and choosing to believe the last two weeks were schematic issues for the Lions’ run defense. This team takes too much damn pride in being able to stop the run for them to get killed on the ground for three straight weeks. While some of the issues have been related to the secondary—and there are no reinforcements coming there—Detroit’s defensive line has also gotten uncharacteristically shoved around. With the Vikings missing their starting center, I don’t expect that to happen again this week.
Last week’s prediction:
On Paper fell to 7-8 on the season, but I correctly predicted the game was going to be closer than the odd 7-point spread suggested. I foresaw some potential struggles for the Lions’ running game, but not on that extreme level that we saw on Sunday. I also didn’t expect the Steelers to have their best rushing game of the season, despite some skepticism about the Lions’ run defense. Overall, I don’t feel too bad about my prediction, but the last game has certainly shaken my faith in Detroit’s run offense/defense moving forward, as evidenced by everything I already wrote above.
In the comment section, LeoniinePride came shockingly close to the 29-24 final score with their 28-24 Steelers prediction. I don’t have my desktop computer to make you a photoshop this week, but consider this the strongest of virtual high fives.
*SLAP*
This week’s prediction
The Lions come out with a +1 advantage, and it even feels like I may have fudged the numbers in their favor. This one could really go either way, and for the second straight week, I don’t really understand the high Vegas odds in Detroit’s favor. I expect this to be a low-scoring, ugly game, and if the Vikings’ aggressive defense forces a turnover or two, it could turn for the worse in a hurry.
But the Vikings offense is in a bad place right now, and even Detroit’s terrible defense should be able to keep this one low-scoring. Lions 16, Vikings 13.
