The St. Louis Cardinals felt like a team with nothing to lose when the 2026 season began, but an unexpectedly strong start has now vaulted them into a time where there suddenly seems to be greater expectations of what they can achieve. How they deal with this will tell us a lot about what kind of team we really have this year.
As I write this, the St. Louis Cardinals are enjoying an off-day in Kansas City (thanks, World Cup) with a record of 40 wins and 34 losses sitting in 2nd place 5 1/2 games behind
the NL Central Division-leading Milwaukee Brewers. Keep in mind they have this record even though they are currently on a 3-game losing streak. Someone in the community mentioned yesterday that the St. Louis Cardinals now are only 1 game better than the St. Louis Cardinals of last season which is true, but I think most of us agree that this year’s team is on a much better trajectory than last year.
The St. Louis Cardinals are beginning to feel like a team that has a real chance to compete for a wild card spot instead of a rebuilding club whose focus would be on player development. Instead of Chaim Bloom trading only for prospects as we get closer to the trade deadline, many (including yours truly) are hoping he’ll aggressively try to add pitching (both starters and relievers) to the roster to give the 2026 Cardinals a legitimate chance at the post-season. I have to ask if our “greater expectations” are real and I think the answer is complicated.
As of right now, the St. Louis Cardinals sit in the top Wild Card spot in the National League. Admittedly, the top 5 teams in the Wild Card race are only separated by 1 game as of today, but still that’s quite an achievement for an overachieving team. An article from The Sporting News shared by Yahoo Sports says that the upcoming trade deadline “is especially tough for Chaim Bloom”. Does he buy or sell? This is where I think that many of us whose expectations are now greater need a bit of a reality check. Will the St. Louis Cardinals go for a frontline starter? I cannot see any scenario where that happens. Teams that trade the most prolific starters will want the best prospects and there’s no way that Chaim Bloom makes that happen unless he’s trading from a position with a glut of talent such as the numerous talented Cardinals catchers. I do believe that Chaim Bloom will try to bolster the Cardinals pitching depth, but I don’t think any of us should expect to be buying Tarik Skubal jerseys.
The expectation growth for the St. Louis Cardinals is also happening at the player level. While most of us would have been thrilled at simply a solid season for Jordan Walker has become the question of whether he’ll be an all-star game starter. JJ Wetherholt has gone from establishing himself on the Major League roster to a frontrunner for rookie of the year currently projecting between a stunning 6 or 7 WAR. Rest of season models show Alec Burleson exceeding his career-best 21 home runs total.
The new questions for the St. Louis Cardinals will be how does this roster respond when there are now expectations of winning instead of just competing during a rebuild. What does President of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom do at the trade deadline to make the current team better without mortgaging the future by giving up top prospects? I think if you took a poll, a majority of the Cardinals fanbase would have been thrilled to have these be the issues that St. Louis would be dealing with more than 70 games into the season.
Here are my updated expectations for this 2026 St. Louis Cardinals club chronologically for the rest of this season. I believe you will see Chaim Bloom add pitchers to the St. Louis Cardinals, but not top-of-the-rotation level arms. I think the pitchers that will help the St. Louis Cardinals the remainder of this season will come from Memphis. I fully expect that we’ll see Chaim trade Dustin May, Lars Nootbaar, JoJo Romero and one of the catchers in our farm system. I think that we’ll see Joshua Báez make his Major League debut after those trades happen especially if he continues to reduce his strikeouts and bad ball chase rate. I will also predict that this St. Louis Cardinals club will grab a wild card spot and make the post-season. Many things need to go right and the Cardinals need to avoid major injuries, but I now believe this is a club that can compete even as the ongoing rebuild happens. Before the season, I was one of the few that predicted a winning season for St. Louis. I’ll admit that I’ll be a little disappointed now if that doesn’t get them into the playoffs and that’s certainly a different expectation than I had 4 months ago.
