And then there were 4. The Dodgers and Brewers open the NLCS Monday, by which time either the Toronto Blue Jays or Seattle Mariners will have a leg up on their 7 game showdown for the AL pennant. Game
1 is this evening in Toronto, with several key questions to be answered this week…
Can The Blue Jays Crack The Mariners’ Excellent Pitching?
Seattle boasted a solid 3.87 team ERA (13th in MLB) but of course that includes all the retreads who tossed innings along the way. The Mariners’ core pitchers are elite, led by starters Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo, and Bryce Miller and lock down closer Andres Muñoz.
On the flip side, the Blue Jays ranked 4th in all of MLB in runs scored with 798 — in the AL only the Yankees scored more. So this series is the collision of top pitching against a robust offense.
The saying is “Good pitching beats good hitting,” but the season series suggests otherwise. Toronto won the season series 4-2 and did it scoring 31 in the 6 games (5.17 runs/game). The run totals: 3, 3, 4, 6, 6, 9, suggesting that the Blue Jays’ lineup is more than capable of breaking through against Mariners pitching. At least then…
How well are the Mariners set up for pitching?
While the Blue Jays were resting up following a 3-1 series win, Seattle was pushing hard and then some to advance. Not only did their series with the Tigers go 5 games, affording the team just one day off before the ALCS, game 5 went 15 innings.
Noteworthy contributors to the 15 inning win were Eduard Bazardo, whose 2.2 IP (39 pitches) finished a stretch of pitching in all 5 games, along with starters Gilbert (2 IP, 34 pitches) and Castillo (1.1 IP, 15 pitches).
Will this impact the ALCS? Yes and no. Normally Seattle would not turn to Miller for game 1 as he was shaky in his return from injury this season (5.68 ERA) and was their worst SP of their fab five. But with Woo coming back from a pectoral injury and needing to be pushed back probably to game 3, and with Kirby, Gilbert, and Castillo all having pitched Friday, Miller is the only available arm.
That being said, in a 7 game series 3 of your SP are on turn to pitch twice at some point with only the game 4 starter getting a single start. So there is still opportunity to give Kirby and Gilbert two starts each or in theory Castillo and Woo — trouble is you can’t choose all of them and in fact two of the four are eliminated from “2 starts” consideration if Miller gets two starts, which is he now on turn to do as the game 1 SP.
Perhaps given that he is just returning from injury, Woo will be pushed back to game 4 to make just one start, leaving Miller-Gilbert-Kirby-Woo-Miller-Gilbert-Kirby as one possible rotation. In this scenario, the Mariners’ bullpen becomes fearsome with Castillo available in relief and also Woo likely in the pen for a game 7.
So the main fallout is being forced to start your 5th SP (but one who would rank higher on most teams) in game 1 and then possibly again in game 5 — but it’s worth noting that Castillo, for example, could start game 5 over Miller so it’s not certain that Miller will even make more than one start.
Tough decisions for manager Dan Wilson and the M’s front office, but enviably Seattle is faced with only good options no matter which way they turn for the 7 possible starts.
Will Bassitt Be A Good Dog?
Possibly the biggest needle mover on the Blue Jays’ side, in one direction or the other, is Chris Bassitt, who has been added to the ALCS roster after missing the ALDS with lower back inflammation. The Blue Jays are certainly two deep in the rotation with Kevin Gausman (starting game 1 tonight) and rookie sensation Trey Yesavage. Bassitt gives them a key 3rd SP for a team that was forced to throw a bullpen game in game 4 against the Yankees.
Shane Bieber was the game 3 starter in the ALDS but lasted just 2.2 IP. Bassitt’s return pushes Bieber (or Max Scherzer, also added to the ALCS roster) into the 4th slot that only gets one start, so it’s a huge upgrade for Toronto to get Bassitt back.
But “Bassitt back” is the key question. Lower back issues are no trifling matter. Presumably Bassitt is on the roster because his back is good enough to go to allow him to pitch. But pitch well? Backs are finicky and can subtly affect range of motion, fluid movement, which can impact anything from velocity to command without looking much different to the naked eye.
It’s not hard to envision a fully recovered Bassitt throwing 7 sterling innings, nor is it difficult to imagine a scenario where he throws 65 pitches in 2.2 laborious innings with spotty command and no putaway acumen on his pitches. Which way it goes could easily determine the outcome in a 7-game series, especially if Bassitt is positioned to make 2 starts.
It should be an exciting and drama-filled series between two excellent, but flawed, teams. My personal prediction is that Bassitt is effective, Yesavage dominant, and that despite a close and hard-fought series the Blue Jays prevail in 6 on the backs of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Trey Yesavage.
It should be fun!
