Well, it’s the last day of Hate Week, which means that in, just over, 24 hours we’ll all have to endure the pain of another installment of the Cy-Hawk game, brought to you by your corporate overlords at HyVee, where there’s a higher price and an armed security officer (remember when HyVee had a helpful smile, not a Glock 9mm?) in every aisle. I was never a Fareway guy, but if I still lived in Iowa, I might put up with the high school kid loading my groceries into my car. As it is, I’m stuck with Fry’s.
Look, over the last couple years I’ve made my feelings on this game very clear, I hate everything about it, always have. Even when I was a kid and Iowa won 18 straight, it never felt good. When we started losing, it felt worse, and even though I really want this game to attain the kind of status that so many in-state rivalry games between P4 teams have, it feels like we’re still a long way away from both of these programs being really good at the same time. I mean, they’ve only met as ranked teams once, ONCE, in 70 matchups? This year will be no different. This time the Clones have the top 25 (likely top 20 when the week 1 poll debuts) ranking and Iowa might, MIGHT, snag 5-10 votes (which would put them around 44) and is saddled with more questions than answers at present.
Fox is bringing their Big Noon show to Ames, so at least it’s a featured matchup (with a nationwide broadcast), but still, if ISU wins, it’s a game they SHOULD win (this year), and if Iowa wins the questions will be less about Iowa as a dark-horse in the B18 and more about if ISU was overrated. I’ll admit that this is a bit of a flip of the status quo, but still, I want this game to be spoken of the way people talk about the Iron Bowl, and we’re just a long way from that reality.
Alright, enough of my ranting, let’s get to the numbers.
Offensive Statistics
Iowa – 358 ypg (48 passing, 310 rushing), 34.0 ppg
Iowa State – 428.5 ypg (230.5 passing, 198.0 rushing), 39.5 ppg
Iowa’s offensive performance against Albany was, umm, well, a let down. There were certainly bright spots, particularly the ground game that churned out 310 yards on 53 carries (5.8 ypc), but the passing games woes (9/16 for just 48 yards) leave an awful lot to be desired. Mark Gronowski’s disappointing debut left us all wanting A LOT more, but he did complete 6 of his late 8 passes, scored a rushing TD (should have been 2), and didn’t get sacked (I don’t care what the stats say, that was a bullshit early whistle). The real story was the offensive line’s dominance and Xavier Williams stepping up with 122 yards rushing after Kamari Moulton came out of the game (I’m guessing dislocated shoulder, if we’re lucky, he’ll be back after the 1st bye).
Iowa State’s offense, on the other hand, has been pretty explosive through two games. Aside from a bad 1st half in Dublin – in terrible conditions – and a less than stellar 1st quarter against SoDak, Rocco Becht has been as good as everyone expected him to be, 33/48 (68.8%) for 461 yards ( and five TDs against zero INTs. Against South Dakota, the Cyclones accumulated 529 total yards and scored on every possession except their final drive when they ran out the clock. Becht literally set records with his performance going 19/20 (95%, not a typo), for 278 yds and 3 TDs (. The tight end combination of Benjamin Brahmer and Gabe Burkle has been particularly effective, with Brahmer catching nine passes for 51 yards and three touchdowns over two games.
ADVANTAGE: Iowa State – Let’s face it, even without Higgins and Noel, the Cyclones’ balance and explosive play capability through two games is just better than what Iowa showed against Albany. The Coyotes are a better FCS team than the Great Danes, and Becht had his way with them. They’ve got an incredible backfield duo in Hansen and Sama, two TEs that feel like they should be wearing Black and Gold, and their WRs have good chemistry with Becht. All of that combines to give Iowa State significant advantages in both rhythm and big-play potential. I’ll admit, I’m a little worried about their TEs being covered by our LBs.
Defensive Statistics
Iowa – 43 total ypg allowed (87 passing, -44 rushing), 7.0 ppg allowed
Iowa State – ~300 total ypg allowed (estimated), 14.0 ppg allowed
Iowa’s defense looked like vintage Phil Parker against Albany, holding the Great Danes to just 43 total yards (44 passing, -1 rushing). Complementary football was on full display, with the defense setting up short fields and controlling field position, even if it was against a mid-tier FCS team (though I think this win has a chance to look a little better by the end of the season. I won’t be surprised if Albany has a pretty good year).
Iowa State’s defense under coordinator Jon Heacock has been solid through two games, allowing 21 points to Kansas State’s before completely shutting down South Dakota for 3 quarters (and allowing just 44 yards in the second half). The Cyclones struggled a bit out of the gate, but held South Dakota to 209 total yards while forcing turnovers and creating short fields for their offense.
ADVANTAGE: Push – Iowa’s defense looked dominant against Albany, an FCS opponent. Iowa State’s performance against Kansas State is a better indicator of what Iowa will see in this game (which may bode well for Iowa, but still, they only allowed KSU 110 on the ground). They gave up a couple of big plays to KSU, but I’m not confident that Iowa has the deep passing game to take advantage of their secondary the way the Cats did.
Special Teams Statistics
Iowa – 50 ypp, 100% FG (1/1), 0.0 ypkr, 21.0 yppr
Iowa State – 44.5 , 100% FG (4/4), 33.0 ypkr, 0.0 yppr
Normally this is an area where Iowa dominates its opponents, but this year Iowa state has a couple of their own weapons.
Kyle Konrardy (who kicked the game winner in Iowa City last year) has been perfect on field goals, including a school-record 63-yard bomb against South Dakota that broke a 50-year-old Jack Trice Stadium record. Iowa’s Drew Stevens showed his range with a career-long 55-yarder against Albany (that would have been good from at least 60, if not 65) and Rhys Dakin remain consistently excellent.
Sam Phillips had an impressive PR against Albany, turning a really good punt into a 46-yard return, but ISU has Aiden Flora averaging 58.5!?! yards per punt return and 28 on kicks (he was about 2cm away from taking a punt back for a TD on Saturday). Granted, limited touches against an FCS squad, but still, that’s a hell of a number.
ADVANTAGE: Push – Konrardy and Stevens are on equal footing, and Tyler Perkins is just slightly behind Dakin in terms of average (48.3 ypp). Aiden Flora (provided he’s healthy, he came up a little gimpy after his second 50+ yard PR on Saturday) is every bit the weapon that Wetjen (who Albany did everything in their power to stay away from) and Phillips may be.
Numbers to Watch
3 – Rocco Becht has been sensational through two games, completing 33 of 48 passes for 461 yards and six touchdowns with zero interceptions. His 95% completion percentage against South Dakota set a school record, and he’s now thrown touchdown passes in a program-record 20 consecutive games. The redshirt junior has evolved into one of the best quarterbacks in college football.
14 – Mark Gronowski needs to recover from his less than stellar debut and find some rhythm with the WRs toot suite. If ISU is allowed to make Iowa one dimensional, that 3-3-5 could look a lot more like a 3-5-3 with a lot of bodies in the box to clog up the running lanes.
18 – Ben Brahmer is turning into Becht’s favorite target, with 9 catches for 88 yards and 2 TDs. At 6’7” he’s a lot to handle and he’s got speed to boot. This week could teach us a lot about the ceiling of Iowa’s back 5.
24 – Abu Sama III is a weapon no matter where he lines up. He’s got speed, vision, and just enough size to make him harder to bring down than a lot of RBs. He and Carson Hansen make up one of the better RB duos in CFB atm.
26 – Xavier Williams is already drawing comparisons to Shonn Greene (complete with questions about the size of his quads. His performance against Albany (11 carries for 122 yards and a TD) has some Iowa fans buzzing. We’ll need more of the same from him in Ames. On the other side of the ball, Carson Hansen keeps churning out hard earned yards and bruising defenses. He runs hard, and through, a lot of tackles.
87 – Addison Ostrenga had a pretty light day against Albany with just 1 catch for 8 yards. If Iowa can’t get the TEs involved in the medium passing game (especially out of the 13 sets we saw more than I would have expected on Saturday), it could be a problem moving forward.
The Matchup
This game will likely be decided by Iowa’s ability to pass the ball and keep ISU honest. If we see another poor performance from Mark Gronowski and ISU is able to stack the box, it’s going to be hard for Iowa to put up 300+ on the ground against a P4 defense. Iowa’s OL looked pretty great against the Great Danes, it’ll be 100% harder to repeat that against a defense that averages 6’4” 295 across the front line.
It’s going to be a chess match all around. Lester v. Heacock, Parker v. Mouser. But honestly, Iowa’s ability to keep plays in front of them on defense, and actually complete passes are likely going to be the determining factors here. If ISU starts hitting chunk plays, this could turn into a very long Saturday.
Vegas Lines and Prediction
Iowa State is currently favored by 3/3.5 points with the moneyline for ISU between -152-155 (Iowa is +127-130). The over/under is set at 42.5, so the sharps aren’t expecting either team to run away with one. I can definitely see this being a 24-21 game won on a last second field goal. I can also see this being a 35-7 route that hits the under.
Prediction: Iowa State 24, Iowa 17 – I think Iowa will be in this game all the way to the last minute, but I just don’t know if the offense can get where it needs to be over the next 5 days. I really, really, hope I’m wrong here and we find out on Saturday that Lester and Gronowski were sandbagging.
As always, GO HAWKS!!!
